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1、? (000858.SZ) ? 39% ? (?) ? ?1) ? ? ? 2016 ? 10%?2) ? ? 12 ? ? 32.59 ? 39%? ? 1) ? ?/?/? 2) ? 630- 650 ? 659 ?2015 ? 8 ? ? 3) ? ? ? ? 2020 ? 18 ? 2016 ? 12 ? 2015-2020 ? ? 32.48 ? 32.59 ? ? ? ? ? ?12/1412/15E12/16E12/17E?12/1412/15E12/16E12/17E?21,011.522,148.324,161.826,335.5?22,382.123,620.526,436
2、.429,266.1?(5,772.0)(6,482.5)(6,869.9)(7,386.0)?7,728.39,708.911,253.412,987.3 ?(7,873.2)(8,353.4)(8,753.7)(9,571.3)?8,091.59,412.910,163.711,129.7?-?298.2350.0350.0350.0 ?(6.2)0.00.00.0?38,500.143,092.348,203.553,733.1?8,012.87,987.29,209.710,051.9?6,061.55,880.75,753.55,677.7 ?(652.6)(674.7)(671.6
3、)(673.8)?423.2472.2511.1539.8?7,360.17,312.58,538.29,378.1?869.1883.6898.0912.5 ?660.4671.5708.6793.1?555.0555.0555.0555.0?(2.6)0.00.00.0?46,408.950,883.855,921.261,418.1 ?14.514.514.514.5?(16.5)15.922.529.8?5,924.96,571.36,869.97,284.9 ?8,015.98,014.49,283.810,215.4?0.00.00.00.0?(1,957.7)(1,957.3)(
4、2,267.9)(2,495.9)?0.0(0.4)360.0624.6 ?(223.3)(223.3)(258.6)(284.6)?5,924.96,570.87,229.97,909.4?0.00.00.00.0 ?5,834.95,833.86,757.37,435.0?150.8200.0200.0200.0?0.00.00.00.0?150.8200.0200.0200.0 ?5,834.95,833.86,757.37,435.0?6,075.86,770.87,429.98,109.4?0.00.00.00.0 ?5,834.95,833.86,757.37,435.0?0.00
5、.00.00.0?39,430.442,987.047,106.751,639.5 ?1.541.541.781.96?902.71,126.01,384.61,669.1?1.541.541.781.96 ?1.541.541.781.96?46,408.950,883.855,921.261,418.1?0.600.600.690.76 ?39.039.039.039.0?10.3911.3212.4113.60?0.63.95.66.0?12/1412/15E12/16E12/17E?12/1412/15E12/16E12/17E ?(15.0)5.49.19.0?15.213.714.
6、314.2?(29.0)(0.3)15.39.1?15.514.215.015.1 ?(30.6)(0.6)16.89.8?12.912.012.712.7?(26.8)0.015.810.0?38.128.930.530.9 ?(26.8)0.015.810.0?473.5492.8520.1526.1?72.570.771.672.0?102.6143.7158.3168.0 ?38.136.138.138.2?410.0351.8357.1349.7?35.033.035.335.6?(55.5)(53.5)(54.5)(54.9) ?NMNMNMNM?12/1412/15E12/16E
7、12/17E?12/1412/15E12/16E12/17E?5,834.95,833.86,757.37,435.0 ?652.6674.7671.6673.8?11.515.313.212.0?223.3223.3258.6284.6?1.72.11.91.7 ?(6,004.2)(2,655.6)(1,996.7)(2,284.9)?5.78.36.96.1?88.0(17.2)(14.5)(14.5)?1.01.31.11.0 ?794.64,059.05,676.26,094.0?3.42.63.03.3?(411.0)(543.0)(583.2)(626.7)?(41.5)0.00
8、.00.0 ?0.00.00.00.0?(734.0)0.00.00.0 ?(1,186.5)(543.0)(583.2)(626.7)?(2,657.2)(2,277.6)(2,277.1)(2,637.6)?0.00.00.00.0 ?6.00.00.00.0?(338.1)0.00.00.0 ?(2,989.3)(2,277.6)(2,277.1)(2,637.6)?(3,381.2)1,238.42,815.92,829.7?High-end spirits bottomed out; upgrade demand to drive recovery We believe the hi
9、gh-end spirits market has bottomed out after a three-year adjustment period and is starting to show signs of recovery. In the last three years, Wuliangye and Moutai have continued to increase their market shares, both making up the duopoly in the high-end spirits market. We see the industry continui
10、ng to benefit from aspirational demand as consumers upgrade to high-end spirits going forward. Hence, we are forecasting 10% revenue growth for high-end Wuliangye products in 2016, driven by both higher pricing and volume. Steady volume growth for the next five years We expect the high-end spirits m
11、arket (Rmb500 per bottle) to maintain about 11% growth rate in the next five years, mainly driven by consumption upgrade demand and higher ASP. Notably, while we expect industry sales volume for spirits to grow at a high single digit, we believe high- end spirits (2015E sales volume of 42000 tons, o
12、nly 0.3% of industry sales volume) still has enough room to benefit from consumption upgrade, especially from the Rmb300-Rmb500 price range (2015E sales volume of more than 90000 tons). If we assume 5% of the consumers upgrade from Rmb300-Rmb500 spirits to those spirits above Rmb500 (which we think is quite reasonable conside
