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1、1Wind energy scenarios for 20302WIND ENERGY SCENARIOS FOR 2030Table of Contents Wind Energy Scenarios for 2030 . 1Executive summary . 3Introduction . 4Recent EU economic and regulatory developments . 4Member States developments to 2030 . 6Description of 2030 wind energy capacity scenarios . 7Scenari
2、o analysis . 9Macro-economic and social implications of different scenarios . 11Regional and national development of wind energy to 2030 . 123Wind energy scenarios for 2030Executive summaryRecent regulatory and economic developments in the EU have significantly changed the wind energy perspective fo
3、r the next 15 years. In light of uncertain governance towards achieving EU climate and energy binding targets, EWEA updated the European wind energy industrys vision to 2030. EWEAs new Central Scenario expects 320 GW of wind energy capacity to be installed in the EU in 2030, 254 GW of onshore wind a
4、nd 66 GW of offshore wind. That would be more than twice as much as the installed capacity in 2014 (129 GW) and an increase of two thirds from the expected capacity installed in 2020 (192 GW). Wind energy will produce 778 TWh of electricity, equal to 24.4% of the EUs electricity demand. The wind ene
5、rgy industry will provide over 334,000 direct and indirect jobs in the EU and wind energy installations in 2030 will be worth 474 bn. The 96,000 wind turbines installed on land and in the sea will avoid the emission of 436 million of tonnes (Mt) of CO2.EWEAs Low Scenario only foresees 251 GW of wind
6、 energy installations, 22% lower than in the Central Scenario, equal to meet 19% of EU electricity de- mand in 2030. Such level of installations would mean 307,000 jobs in the wind energy sector, 367 bn worth of investments, 339 Mt of CO2 emissions avoided and 76,000 wind turbines installed and con-
7、 nected to the grid in 2030. The High Scenario expects 392 GW installed in 2030, 23% higher than in the Central Scenario, equal to meet 31% of EU electricity demand. 366,000 jobs will be generated, as well as 591 bn of investments, 554 Mt of CO2 emissions would be avoided and 114,000 wind turbines g
8、enerating electricity in the EU would be installed. FIGURE 1: EWEA CAPACITY SCENARIOS AND MACRO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS FIGURE 1: EWEA CAPACITY SCENARIOS AND MACRO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS3073343663674745913394365547696114251320392- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Low Central High Employment (1,000 jobs) Investments
9、 (bn)CO2 Emissions reduced (Mt) No. of Wind Turbines (x1,000) Capacity installations (GW) 4WIND ENERGY SCENARIOS FOR 2030Wind energy scenarios for 2030Introduction In 2014, the European Union set a legally binding target to 2030 of at least 27% renewable energy in final energy consumption at Europea
10、n level. Unlike the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive, the agreed target explicitly ruled out binding national renewable energy targets raising questions on how Member States will meet such a EU-wide target and the role of the European Commission in overseeing its achievement.27% renewables in final e
11、nergy consumption translates into 46%-49% electricity generated by renewables according to the European Commission. Wind energy is poised to take the lions share of this electricity with at least 21%1. However, the uncertainty related to the governance and breakdown of wind power installations in ea
12、ch Member State remains. With this report, EWEA puts forward the updated European wind energy industrys vision on how wind power can contribute to the achievement of the EUs 2030 climate and energy ambitions. In 2011, EWEA published Pure Power2 showing that wind energy could cover 28.5% of EU electr
13、icity demand in 2030. At that time, the industry forecasted 400 GW of wind energy capacity operating in the EU, 250 GW onshore and 150 GW offshore, generating 1,154 TWh of electricity. In light of the economic and regulatory developments outlined below, EWEA has now revised these figures.Recent EU e
14、conomic and regulatory developmentsWind energys potential to 2030 will depend to a large extent on recent policy developments in the major EU climate and energy priorities: the governance of the Energy Union, a new European power market design and the Emission Trading System reform. In February 2015, the European Commission set its vision for an Energy Union grounded on energy security, the internal energy market, the decarbonisation of the economy, research and i
