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1、The Future of Silver Industrial DemandCommissioned by the Silver InstitutePrepared by GFMS Ltd March 20112Independent - Informed - InternationalThe Future of Silver Industrial Demand - March 2011 GFMS Limited 2011, The Silver Institute. All rights reserved.We (and where relevant, any identified cont
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4、you.While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this document, the content of this document is provided without any guarantees, conditions or warranties as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy o
5、r sell precious metal, related products, commodities, securities or related financial instruments. To the extent permitted by law, we, other members of our group of companies and third parties connected to us hereby expressly exclude: All conditions, warranties and other terms which might otherwise
6、be implied by statute, common law or the law of equity. Any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage incurred by any person or organization reading or relying on this document including (without limitation) loss of income or revenue, loss of business, loss of profits or con
7、tracts, loss of anticipated savings, loss of goodwill and whether caused by tort (including negligence), breach of contract or otherwise, even if foreseeable.3Independent - Informed - InternationalThe Future of Silver Industrial Demand - March 2011Table of Contents1.0 Executive Summary 5Introduction
8、 5 Economic and Price Forecast 5Industrial Demand Forecast 62.0 Historical Review 93.0 The Role of Silver in Industrial Demand 12Introduction 12 Technological Advantages of Silver 12Production Stages 134.0 Industrial Applications Today 18Introduction and Summary 18 Electrical and Electronics 18 Phot
9、o Voltaics 19Brazing Alloys and Solders 20 Ethylene Oxide 215.0 Future Industrial Demand for Silver 22Introduction and Summary 22 Economic Forecasts 22 Role IMFGDP growth % per annumReal GDP Growth7Independent - Informed - InternationalThe Future of Silver Industrial Demand - March 2011First, the ro
10、bust increase in the manufacture of electrical contacts reflects the success of an established use, for example in terms of its development in the auto industry. The use of electrical contacts in cars has risen rapidly, not simply in response to an increase in the volume of vehicles made, but also b
11、ecause the number of end-uses for contacts, has expanded. Indeed, the list of core uses has grown considerably, from controlling windshield wipers and seat adjustments, to managing navigation systems. Features that were once the preserve of high-end automobiles have, over time, become an industry st
12、andard. Legislation has also played a critical role in the auto industry, as it has mandated for ever greater safety features. As a result, the latest electrical circuitry, used in (for example) speed or distance limiters, will most likely form part of an industry standard in tomorrows auto market.
13、Electrical contacts therefore offers an example of an established end-use that is in the process of effectively re-inventing itself. The second example concerns the development of the photo voltaic (PV) industry, which demonstrates how exogenous factors have had (and continue to have) a material bea
14、ring on a long-established use of silver (in this case, its use as a conductive paste). Although it is often referred to as a “new end use” of silver, the use of the white metal in PV was first developed over two decades ago, but until recently silver offtake in this field remained slight. The marke
15、t for PVs then changed dramatically, as growing environmental concerns increasingly focussed on generating power from fossil-free sources. From this point, silver offtake soared, from around 3 Moz in 2004 to around 50 Moz in 2010. Further robust growth is also forecast for the PV industry, with silv
16、er demand in 2015 expected to be more than double the already elevated total for 2010.In forecasting silver industrial demand, therefore, we must consider which other established uses may go the way of these two examples. In addition to these segments, there are also a number of new uses of silver that merit attention. Although the total contribution from the new uses is expected to be more modest, at least within th
