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1、Q1 2011 oil the remainder were gravel, improved earth standard, or merely earth tracks. China Oil 3 National Bureau of Statistics. Economic Activity II Private Consumption To Outperform BMI View: A substantial negative drag from net exports and a slowdown in investment spending should see real GDP g
2、rowth come in at 7.5% in 2011. That said, we continue to see the consumer outperforming as wages increase and consumer subsidies remain in place. This outperformance will be relative, however, and we do not expect to see consumer spending accelerate from current growth rates. Our below-consensus eco
3、nomic outlook for China in 2011, with real GDP growth expected to come in at just 7.5%, is based on a bearish outlook for net exports and domestic investment. Net exports, which have historically provided a major boost to real GDP growth, should act as a drag to the tune of 0.8 percentage points (pp
4、) in 2011, following a much more benign 0.3pp drag in 2010. Indeed, we expect the current account surplus to shrink to 3.6% of GDP in 2011 from 4.4% of GDP in 2010, as import growth outstrips that of exports. Ceteris paribus, this would necessarily cause headline real GDP expansion to moderate. Movi
5、ng onto investment, meanwhile, we do not believe that gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) - which has contributed the lions share of growth in 2010 - will show the same dynamism in 2011. After expanding by a staggering 23.2% in 2009 and an expected 12.5% in 2010, we see a slowdown as highly likely,
6、 particularly in the construction sector, which should see GFCF growth come in at just 8.3% in 2011. This would see GFCF add 3.9pp to headline growth, the lowest contribution since 2001. China Oil na = not available/applicable. Source: BMI Overview/State Role Licensing And Regulation The regulation
7、of Chinas energy sector has been established through a history of periodic reform and restructuring of the countrys bureaucracy resulting in authorities being spread between numerous institutions. This has resulted in a tangled web of more than a dozen regulatory bodies whose conflicting goals and c
8、apacities have often impeded progress in the formation and implementation of police. The National Energy Administration (NEA) was created in March 2008 with a broad mandate in an attempt to create body with the authority and capacity to formulate and implement policy on a national level. Key functio
9、ns, however, have been held in the NRDC and other bodies meaning that in practice the NEA has China Oil e = estimate; na = not available/applicable. Source: Company data, 2009. Table: Key Downstream Players Company Refining capacity (000b/d) Market share (%) Retail outlets Market share (%) Sinopec 4
10、,217 51 30,063e 60e PetroChina 2,575 31 18,846 30e Shell China na na 32e na BP China na na 147e na Caltex China na na 95e na Total China 45e 1 na na e = estimate; na = not available/applicable. Source: Company data, 2009. ghbChina Oil this was confirmed more recently by the Nigerian upstream acquisi
11、tion. CNOOC is also developing petrochemicals and refining interests through IOC JVs, which will eventually change the shape of the business. SWOT Analysis Strengths: Leading offshore oil production position Growing reserves and output Rising international upstream exposure High efficiency and low c
12、osts Weaknesses: Limited upside potential from Chinese fields Risk of over-payment for non-China assets Opportunities: International diversification Downstream oil and gas diversification Strong domestic energy demand growth Threats: Rising investment requirement Competition in Chinas offshore segme
13、nt Lower returns from downstream investments Changes in national energy policy Address ? CNOOC Limited Offshore Petroleum Plaza No 6, Dongzhimenwai Xiaojie DongCheng District Beijing, 100027 China ? Tel: +86 (10) 8452 1646 ? Fax: +86 (10) 8452 1441 ? Web: Financial Statistics Sales ? CNY105.20bn (2
14、009) ? CNY125.98bn (2008) ? CNY90.72bn (2007) ? CNY88.95bn (2006) Net income ? CNY29.49bn (2009) ? CNY44.37bn (2008) ? CNY31.26bn (2007) ? CNY30.93bn (2006) Operating Statistics ? Year established: 1982 ? Total proven oil reserves: 1.56mn bbl (2007) Net oil production: ? 509,696b/d (2009) ? 422,068
15、b/d (2008) ? 371,827b/d (2007) Net gas production: ? 6.75bcm (2009) ? 6.42bcm (2008) ? 5.78bcm (2007) China Oil this is due for delivery in 2010. CNOOC is also looking at deepwater seismic and survey vessels. Furthermore, plans are afoot for a new 2mn sq km deepwater fabrication facility to be built
16、 in South China that will complement the 1.3mn sq km deepwater specialist shipyard at Qingdao. There will also be a requirement to develop more heavy oil technologies as Chinas offshore areas contain large reserves of heavy oil. CNOOC says it has already built up its offshore heavy oil expertise. It claims to be able to drill and complete a 2,000m heavy oil well in 10 days and has implemented the use of polymer flooding to reduce
