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1、Pathways to a Low-Carbon EconomyVersion 2 of the Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost CurveVERSION 2 OF THE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS ABATEMENT COST CURVE 5Table of contentsPreface 3Summary of findings 71. Objectives and approach 202. The challenge of rising GHG emissions 222.1 Why do GHG emissions matt
2、er? 222.2 Business-as-usual emissions trajectory 243. The GHG abatement potential 263.1 Sector view: Three types of sectors with different characteristics 323.2 Regional view: Three types of regions with different characteristics 343.3 Brief outlook to 2050 374. Energy savings could largely pay for
3、upfront abatement investments 384.1. Abatement cost 394.2. Abatement investments 425. The importance of time 465.1 The effect of delaying abatement action 465.2 The importance of new infrastructure choices 486. Scenarios and sensitivities 506.1 Integrated implementation scenarios 506.2. Uncertaintie
4、s and sensitivities 527. Four areas of regulation 568. Sectoral abatement opportunities 598.1 Power 598.2 Petroleum and gas 678.3 Cement 748.4 Iron and Steel 818.5 Chemicals 878.6 Transport 928.7 Buildings 1048.8 Waste 1118.9 Forestry 1168.10 Agriculture 123References 131Appendix 139Appendix I Conta
5、cts and acknowledgements 139Appendix II Glossary 142Appendix III Methodology 145Appendix IV Comparison of results with IPCC AR4 150Appendix V Summary result for 21 regions 154Appendix VI Abatement results for 2020 155Appendix VII Assumptions by sector 160PATHWAYS TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY6VERSION 2 OF
6、 THE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS ABATEMENT COST CURVE 7Summary of findings Leaders in many nations are discussing ambitious targets for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in order to mitigate the worst impact of climate change on the environment, human societies, and our economies. Many scienti
7、sts and policy makers, including those in the European Union, believe that holding the rise in global mean temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrial times is an important aim, as they see this as a threshold when the implications of global warming become very serious. McKinse
8、y even deep emission cuts in some sectors will not be sufficient. Action also needs to be timely. A 10-year delay in taking abatement action would make it virtually impossible to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius. What would such an effort cost? We find that, if the most economically ratio
9、nal abatement opportu- nities are pursued to their full potential clearly an optimistic assumption the total worldwide cost could be 200 to 350 billion annually by 2030. This is less than 1 percent of forecasted global GDP in 2030, although the actual effect on GDP of such abatement efforts is a mor
10、e complex matter that depends, among other things, on the financing of such abatement efforts. Turning to financing, the total upfront investment in abatement measures needed would be 530 billion in 2020 per year or 810 billion per year in 2030 incremental to business-as-usual (BAU) investments. Thi
11、s corresponds to 5 to 6 percent of BAU investments in fixed assets in each respective year. As such, the investment required seems to be within the long-term capacity of global financial markets (as long as the current credit squeeze doesnt have significant consequences in this time horizon). Indeed
12、, many of the opportunities would see future energy savings largely compensate for upfront investments. 1 The primary source of the climate science in this report is Climate Change 2007, Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We are also grateful to scientists Mich
13、el den Elzen, Detlef van Vuuren, and Malte Meinshausen for their contributions.VERSION 2 OF THE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS ABATEMENT COST CURVE 9Potential exists to contain global warming below 2 degrees Celsius This study focuses on technical abatement opportunities costing less than 60 per tonne of CO2
14、 equivalent (tCO2e), and these are the opportunities shown on our “GHG abatement cost curve” (see “How to read the Greenhouse Gas abatement cost curve”).2We have defined technical abatement opportunities as not having a material effect on the lifestyle of consumers and our results are therefore cons
15、istent with continuing increases in global prosperity. We have made high-level estimates of the size of more expensive technical opportunities, as well as changes in the behavior of consumers, which could potentially offer further potential for abatement. However, because these prospects are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, we have made no attempt to quantify their cost. 2 Using IPCC terminology, we studied the economic potential below 60 per tCO2e of technical emission reduction opportunities. We chose
