《基于分等时段序列法的中长期负荷预测毕业论文》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《基于分等时段序列法的中长期负荷预测毕业论文（74页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、基于分等时段序列法的中长期负荷预测基于分等时段序列法的中长期负荷预测摘要摘要 电力负荷预测是供电部门的重要工作之一，准确的负荷预测，可以经济合理地安排电网内部发电机的启停，保持电网运行的安全稳定性，减少不必要的旋转储备容量，合理安排机组检修计划，保证社会的正常生产和生活，有效地降低发电成本，提高经济效益和社会效益。中长期电力负荷预测是指五到十年左右并以年为单位的预测，主要用于制定电力系统的扩建规划，为该地区未来供电电源点的确定、电力建设规模、电力工业布局以及电网资金和人力资源的平衡提供可靠的依据。由于中长期负荷预测会受到很多不确定因素的影响，因此到目前为止，没有哪一种预测模型能保证在任何不同时
2、间和地区都能获得满意的预测结果。所以在进行负荷预测时，必须分析该地区的负荷变化，结合实际情况，选择合适的预测模型。本文首先简要地介绍了电力系统中长期负荷预测的研究背景和意义、基本原理，对中长期负荷预测研究的现状进行了综述，分析并比较了常用的中长期负荷预测的方法；其次介绍了负荷预测的分类、特点、影响其发展的因素，以及预测误差产生的原因；接着对负荷预测中的灰色模型法进行了深入的分析，讲述了建模的步骤，检验误差的方法和衡量精度的指标等；然后通过对灰色理论预测方法建模机理的研究，找出了灰色建模的局限性并提出了改进的方法：残差预测方法是对 GM(1，1)模型的修正；通过对负荷原始数据序列的预处理及优化，
3、增强了灰色预测对波动负荷数据序列的处理能力，大大提高了灰色预测方法的适用范围和预测精度；对初始条件的选取，可以使拟合曲线更加符合事物未来发展的规律；利用等维新息递推 GM(1，1)模型进行预测，保证了预测能够较为充分地利用新信息，既克服了简单灰色预测法中数学模型固定不变的弊病，又利用了灰色预测法短期预测精度高的优点，能够满足中长期负荷预测的要求；分等时段序列法的应用，使 GM(1，l)中微分方程中参数为时变量，摒弃了该参数固定不变的弊端，使 GM(1，l)模型更适用于中长期负荷的预测。经过改进之后的模型，扩展了普通 GM(1，1)模型的适应范围，提高了预测精度。利用具体实例将分等时段序列法模型
4、与普通 GM(l，1)模型进行比较，证明了改进模型具有比普通 GM(1，1)模型误差小、精度高的优点，是一种较好的预测方法。关关键词键词： ：负荷预测，中长期负荷预测，灰色理论，GM（1，1）模型，分等时段序列法Forecasting for Medium and long Term Load based on Period Equal Division SeriesMajor: Electric Power System and Its AutomationAbstract: Load forecasting for power system is one of the important
5、task of power utilities. Accurate load forecasting is helpful to planning generators starting and stopping in the interior of the electrical networks economically and reasonably，preserving the security and stability of power system，reducing the unnecessary circumvolving repertory capacity，making pla
6、nning to overhaul the units in reason，ensuring the normal production and life of the society，effectively reducing the cost of generating electricity，increasing the economical and social benefit.Mid-long term power load forecasting takes 5 or 10 years as an unit for forecasting and is used to work ou
7、t a plan for expanding power system, provide reliable reference for confirming the future power supplying sites，power construction scale，power industries layout, and for balancing power grid funds and human resources in the local area. Because the mid-long term power load forecasting is affected by
8、many uncertain factors，up to now，no one model can obtain the satisfying forecasting results under different conditions of time and areas. It is necessary to analyze the local load change，think about the practical situation，and to choose proper method.At first, the paper introduces the importance of
9、the medium and long term load forecasting, principles and its development. Then, you can get the classification 、characteristic and affecting its developments Factors of the medium and long term load forecasting. It also gives a summarization for load forecasting methods, then a thorough research in
10、to grey forecasting method is carried through. Through the research into modeling mechanism of grey forecasting method, the shortages of grey mechanism are found and some improved measures are put forward. Correction to GM(1,1) with absolute error grey model is presented; Through the pretreatment an
11、d optimization to historieal load data，the ability of grey forecasting dealing with fluctuant load data is strengthened，and the application range and forecasting precision are also enhanced: By selecting initial condition, can make fit curve to match the rule of the things development in the future;
12、 By using equally dimensional new information grey model for forecasting, new information is used in the forecasting, which not only overcomes the shortcoming that the math model is changeless in simple grey forecasting method, but also makes use of the advantage of the high precision in short term
13、grey forecasting. So it satisfies the request for the medium and long term load forecasting; Period equal division series method changes parameters in differentiate equation into time variables, so the shortcoming of constant parameters in GM(1,1) is removed, therefore, GM(1,1) is more applicable fo
14、r the medium and long term load forecasting. By improving, the applicable range of the common grey model is enhanced. The improved model is compared with the common grey model by calculation example, which shows that the improved model has the advantages of small error and high precision and is a go
15、od forecasting method.Keywords: Load Forecasting，Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting，Grey Theory， GM(1,1)，Period Equal Division Series目录目录第一章绪论第一章绪论 .1 11.1 中长期负荷预测研究背景和意义.11.2 负荷预测的基本原理.21.3 负荷预测的方法及特点.31.4 目前存在的问题.51.5 本文的主要工作.6第二章第二章 负荷预测的总论负荷预测的总论 .7 72.1 负荷预测的分类.72.2 负荷预测的特点.82.3 影响中长期负荷发展的因素.
