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1、The comparetive studies on the relationship of the financial development and economic growth between ChongQing and ShangHaiA Thesis Submitted to Chongqing Universityin Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for theDegree of Master of EconomicsbyHanweixueSupervisor: Prof. PuyongjianMajor:FinanceColle
2、ge of Economy,Industry and Business Management of Chongqing University , Chongqing, ChinaApril,2008重庆大学硕士论文摘要中文摘要金融发展和经济增长关系的研究一直都是国内外理论研究和实证分析的热点。因为学者所采用的研究方法和数据的不同，以及研究对象的不同，该领域的理论研究和实证分析所得出的结论也不尽相同。本文系统回顾国内外学者的研究成果，并在此基础上对重庆和上海两个城市 1997-2006 年 10 个年度期间的金融发展和经济增长的关系进行实证分析。本文思考的主要问题是：重庆和上海两个直辖市的金融发
3、展与经济增长的现状如何？如何衡量两地的金融发展水平？两地金融发展有何差距？两地金融发展与经济增长之间是什么关系？两者之间的关系是否一致？两者之间关系有何差异？造成这种差异的原因是什么？如何缩小这种差异？本文的目的是从沪渝金融发展与经济增长的关系寻找一条发展重庆经济增长的有效道路。基于这样的考虑，作者运用回归模型对重庆和上海两个直辖市1997-2006 十年金融发展与经济增长数据进行实证分析，通过比较两个城市金融发展与经济增长的关系及其差异性，从金融发展与经济增长的关系得出一些促进重庆经济增长的政策建议，希望有利于重庆经济实现持续、快速、高效增长，尽快实现中央提出的“314”目标。本文的结构安排
4、：本文第一部分就选题的现实意义进行阐述；第二部分对金融发展和经济增长的相关理论文献进行综述；第三部分揭示金融发展和经济增长的相互作用机制以及金融发展的制约因素；第四部分选取一系列指标衡量沪渝金融发展与经济增长，并对沪渝两地的现状进行比较分析；第五部分首先采用线性回归分析方法，对重庆和上海金融发展和经济增长的关系进行实证研究，研究结果表明两个城市经济货币化水平和经济证券化水平与经济增长均呈正相关关系，其中经济货币化水平对促进经济增长作用比较明显，而经济证券化水平对促进经济增长作用不明显，结果同时表明上海经济货币化程度对经济的促进作用程度要强于重庆；然后作者分别对货币化程度和经济证券化程度与经济增
5、长做 Granger因果性检验，结果表明两个城市货币化水平是经济增长的 Granger 原因，而经济证券化水平不是经济增长的 Granger 原因，经济增长不是货币化水平和经济证券化水平的 Granger 原因。第六部分通过比较两个城市金融发展和经济增长现状及回归结果的差异，提出相应的政策建议以促进重庆金融发展从而更好服务于重庆经济增长。关键词：金融发展，经济增长，线性回归，Granger 检验I重庆大学硕士论文英文摘要ABSTRACTThe economists always pay attention to the relationship of the financialdevelopm
6、ent and economic growth. But the conclusion is different because of the data,the methods and the object. This paper reviews the theory of the relationship betweenthe financial development and economic growth. On the basis of the theory, the authorutilizes the data of finance and economic of Chongqin
7、g and Shanghais from 1997 to2006, does research on the relation between financial development and economicgrowth of Chongqing and Shanghais.The question of this paper is: what is the actuality of the financial developmentand economic growth in Chongqing and Shanghais? What is the relationship of the
8、financial development and economic growth in Chongqing and Shanghais? What isthe difference of the relationship of the financial development and economic growthbetween Chongqing and Shanghai?The motive of this paper is that the author wants to look for a good ways topromote economic growth in Chongq
9、ing. So the author utilizes the data of finance andeconomic of Chongqing and Shanghai from 1997 to 2006, adopts linear regressionmethod, does research on the relation between financial development and economicgrowth of Chongqing and Shanghai. According to that, also the author gives somemethods to a
10、ccelerate the economic of Chongqing in order to early realize the goal of“314” which is put forward by the president Hujingtao.The first part of this paper expatiates the significance of this paper and the secondpart reviews the theory of the financial development and economic growth. The thirdpart
11、describes the reciprocity mechanism of the financial development and economicgrowth, also the author indicates some factors which restrict the financialdevelopment.The forth part selects some index to show the actuality of the financialdevelopment and economic growth in Chongqing and Shanghai and co
12、mpares theactuality between Chongqing and Shanghai. The fifth part of this paper utilizes thedata of finance and economic of Chongqing since 1997, adopts linear regressionmethod, does research on the relation between financial development and economicgrowth of Chongqing. The conclusion shows that th
13、e bank and stock marketdevelopment presents positive relevant relation to the economic growth; therelationship of the bank to GDP is significant, while the stock market makes weakII重庆大学硕士论文英文摘要effect on the growth of GDP. Also the author does Granger Causality of the FIR andstock to GDP of Chongqing
14、 and Shanghai .The result shows the bank development isthe Granger causality of the economic growth, but the stock market is not. In the lastpart, the author gives some suggestions to promote financial development ofChongqing for its economic growth.Keywords ： financial development, economic growth, linear regression, GrangerCausalityIII.II重庆大学硕士论文目录目录摘要.I ABSTRACT.II 目录. IV 1 绪绪 论论.11.1 引 言.11.2 研究的目的和内容.
