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1、S1_1消費物價指數消費物價指數 Consumer Price Index (CPI)高級統計師 洪少雯女士 Ms Wendy HUNG, Senior Statistician 統計師 鄭立仁 James CHENG, Statistician30/5/2008S1_2? 消費物價指數的基本概念 (Basic concepts of the CPI) ? 編製方法及價格數據搜集 (Compilation method and price data collection) ? 住戶開支統計調查 (Household Expenditure Survey) ? 按月零售物價統計調查 (Month
2、ly Retail Price Survey) ? 消費物價指數近期的變動情況 (Recent movements of the CPI) ? 分析消費物價指數時常見的謬誤 (Common fallacies in interpreting CPI)消費物價指數消費物價指數 Consumer Price Index (CPI)S1_3消費物價指數的基本概念消費物價指數的基本概念 Basic concepts of the CPI消費物價指數量度一固定籃子指定消費商品和服務的總值隨時間 相對於基期的變動。購買同一籃子的消費商品和服務： 在基期需要5,000元指數 = 100.0 在本月需要5,5
3、00元指數 = 110.0CPI measures the change in the value of a fixed basket of specific consumer goods and services relative to that in the base period over time.Purchase the same basket of consumer goods and services during: base period at $5,000 Index = 100.0 this month at $5,500 Index = 110.0S1_4消費物價指數的基
4、本概念消費物價指數的基本概念 Basic concepts of the CPI由於籃子內的商品和服務的數量和質量是固定的， 所以指數純粹反映價格的轉變。 As the basket is fixed in terms of quantity and quality of the items it contains, the index reflects only the price movements.S1_5通脹率或通縮率泛指消費物價指數的按年 變動率，即是把某時期的指數和上一年同期的指數 相比所得出的變動率。 “Inflation rate” or “deflation rate” br
5、oadly refers to the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI, which is obtained by comparing the index for the current period with that for the same period of the preceding year.消費物價指數的基本概念消費物價指數的基本概念 Basic concepts of the CPIS1_6在分析普遍價格變動時，很多時會作按年比較，例如 把一個月的指數與上一年同月的指數比較，因為進行 比較的兩個時期均受類似的季節性因素影響。 Whe
6、n analysing changes in the CPI, it is common to refer to year-on-year changes (e.g. comparing the CPI of a month with that of the same month in the preceding year) on the ground that both periods under comparison are subject to the effects of similar seasonal factors. 消費物價指數的基本概念消費物價指數的基本概念 Basic co
7、ncepts of the CPIS1_7另一方法是採用經季節性調整的消費物價指數，以統 計方法估算出季節性因素的影響，把該等影響從原有 指數中剔除而得。 Another alternative is to use the seasonally adjusted CPI. It is obtained by using statistical methods to estimate and remove the seasonal variations from the original index.消費物價指數的基本概念消費物價指數的基本概念 Basic concepts of the CPI
8、S1_8消費物價指數反映物價轉變對住戶的影響。政府在制訂和監察其政策時，作為指標或分析工具。一些機構在調整薪金/ 工資及收費時，亦會參考消費物價 指數。 CPI reflects changes in consumer prices that affect households. Government uses CPI as an indicator or analytical tool to formulate and monitor its policies. Some organisations refer to CPI to adjust salaries/ wages and cha
9、rges.消費物價指數的基本概念消費物價指數的基本概念 Basic concepts of the CPIS1_9消費物價指數數列消費物價指數數列 Various CPI series$4,000 - $59,999$27,500 - $59,999$15,500 - $27,499$4,000 - $15,499在2004年10月至2005年9月期間 的每月平均住戶開支 Average monthly household expenditure during Oct 2004 to Sep 2005 90以上所有住戶 all the above households 綜合 Composite
10、 CPI10較高 relatively high丙類 CPI(C)30中等 Medium乙類 CPI(B)50較低 relatively low甲類 CPI(A)涵蓋住戶的 大約百分比(%) Approximate percentage of households covered (%)住戶開支範圍 Household expenditure range消費物價指數 數列 CPI seriesS1_10消費物價指數 數列 CPI series住戶開支範圍 Household expenditure range每月平均住戶開支(元) Average monthly household expen
11、diture ($) (調整至2007年價格水平) (adjusted to price level of 2007) 涵蓋住戶 百分比(%) Percentage of households covered (%)甲類 CPI(A)較低 relatively low4,100 - 16,10050乙類 CPI(B)中等 medium16,100 - 28,90030丙類 CPI(C)較高 relatively high28,900 - 63,20010綜合 Composite CPI以上所有住戶 all the above households 4,100 - 63,20090消費物價指數數
12、列消費物價指數數列 Various CPI seriesS1_11S1_11 開支最高或最低的住戶，並不包括在消費物價指數 的範圍內。 接受綜合社會保障援助的住戶，亦不包括在內。 Households in the lowest or highest expenditure ranges are not covered in the CPIs. Households receiving Comprehensive Social Security Assistance are also excluded.消費物價指數數列消費物價指數數列 Various CPI seriesS1_12 為何編製不
13、同的消費物價指數數列？ 不同開支範圍的住戶有顯著不同的開支模式： 屬較低開支範圍的住戶在食品和電力、燃氣及水方面的開 支相對較大 屬較高開支範圍的住戶則在衣履、 耐用物品、交通和服務 方面的開支相對較大 Why are different series of CPI compiled? Households in different expenditure ranges have varying expenditure patterns: households in the lower expenditure range spend relatively more on food, and e
14、lectricity, gas and water households in the higher expenditure range spend relatively more on clothing and footwear, durable goods, transport and services消費物價指數數列消費物價指數數列 Various CPI seriesS1_13編製方法及價格數據搜集編製方法及價格數據搜集 Compilation method and price data collection 編製消費物價指數，需要住戶普遍購買的消費商品和 服務的兩類數據： 開支權數
15、價格變動情況 Two types of data regarding the consumer goods and services commonly purchased by consumers are required for compiling the CPI : expenditure weights price movementsS1_14消費物價指數消費物價指數 Consumer Price IndexMonthly Retail Price Survey按月零售物價統計調查按月零售物價統計調查Price價格價格Household Expenditure Survey住戶開支統計調
16、查住戶開支統計調查CPI開支權數開支權數 Expenditure WeightsHousing住屋住屋29%食品食品 Food 27%S1_15編製方法及價格數據搜集編製方法及價格數據搜集 Compilation method and price data collection由於住戶在某些項目上的開支較其他的為多，即使不同項目的 價格變動相若，其對整體價格變動的影響亦可能不同。在編製消費物價指數時，必須制訂一組開支權數，以代表住戶 所購買的一籃子消費商品和服務中個別項目的相對重要性。每 個項目的開支權數代表該項目在住戶總開支中所佔的比重。As households spend more on some items and less on the others, similar price movements in different items may have di
