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1、湖南大学硕士学位论文湖南汽车零部件产业发展研究姓名：高丽申请学位级别：硕士专业：指导教师：廖进中20070801I摘 要 我国汽车已经进入高速发展的阶段，预计未来 15 年内我国汽车整车产量将会保持平均 13%以上的增速，零部件配套市场的增速在 15%以上，在汽车保有量不断增加，整车产量不断上升，全球采购向有成本优势的中国转移、零部件出口不断增长等因素都给我国汽车零部件产业的发展带来了机遇的情况下，如何利用现有的湖南零部件产业的优势，克服不足，抓住机遇，迎接挑战，将是关系到湖南整个汽车产业是否能够取得突破性发展的关键问题。 本文以湖南汽车零部件产业作为研究对象， 借用 PEST理论以及价值链的
2、战略分析方法对湖南汽车零部件产业从政策环境、经济环境、社会环境、技术环境以及价值链方面进行了全面的分析，分析表明，湖南汽车零部件产业发展具有良好的工业基础与优越的区位优势，以及劳动力资源丰富等优势，但是同时也存在着规模小，技术开发能力薄弱，整车带动作用小等劣势，但是总体来说，由于国家及省政府政策的大力支持以及跨国公司采取全球采购战略等时机的到来，零部件发展已经遇到了千载难逢的好机会。然后论文为湖南汽车零部件产业进行了战略制定及预测，将影响湖南汽车零部件产业发展的因素归纳为技术基础、产业环境、政策支持及市场需求，利用层次分析法为湖南汽车零部件产品发展的先后次序进行了排序，得出了应该重点发展电子类
3、零部件、汽车车用动力总成及车用模具的结论。本文最后根据分析提出了湖南汽车零部件产业的发展对策建议，重点从如何发展产业集群、如何发展电子类零部件以及如何提升自主创新能力三个方面提出了建议，重点提出了与整车厂研发、构建技术公共平台、注重自主研发等问题。 关键词：湖南；汽车零部件产业；价值链；行业结构 IIAbstract Our country automobile already entered the high- speed development stage, and it is estimated that in the future 15 years our country automo
4、bile entire vehicle output will be able to maintain average 13% above the speed- up, the spare part necessary market speed- up above 15%, held the quantity in the automobile unceasingly to increase, the entire vehicle output unceasingly rose, the global purchase to had the cost superiority China to
5、shift, factor and so on spare part exportation unceasing growth all gives our country automobile spare part the development to bring in the opportunity situation, how used the existing Hunan Province spare part industry the superiority, over came the insufficiency, held the opportunity, met the chal
6、lenge, relates the Hunan Province entire automobile industry whether could obtain the unprecedented development the key question. This article takes the Hunan s automobile part industry as the research object, borrows the PEST theory as well as the value chainstrategy analysis method to the Hunan s
7、automobile part industry from the policy environment, the economic environment, the social environment, the technical environment as well as the value chain aspect carries on the comprehensive analysis, the analysis had indicated, the Hunan s automobile part industry development had the good industr
8、y foundation and the superior geographicalsuperiority,as well as labor force resources rich and so on, but simultaneously also has the scale slightly, the technical development ability was weak, the entire tire moved affect sand so on the inferiority slightly, but generally speaking, because nationa
9、l and the provincial government policy vigorously support as well as the multinational corporation adopted the global purchase strategy isochronism machine arrival, The part development had already met the once in a thousand years good opportunity. Then the paper has carried on the strategic formula
10、tion and the forecast for the Hunan s automobile part industry, will affect the Hunan s automobile part industry development the factor to induce into the technology base, the industrial environment, the policy support and the market demand, the order has successively carried on the arrangement usin
11、g the level analytic method for the Hunan s automobile part product development, obtained should the prioritize electricity subclass part, the automobile vehicle use the mold with power total Cheng Jiche the conclusion. This article finally acted according to analyzes proposed the Hunan s automobile
12、 part IIIindustry development counter measure suggested,how key from developed the industrial colony, how develops the electricity subclass sparepart as well as how promotes the independent innovation ability three aspects to propose the suggestion, proposed with emphasis with the entire cart yard r
13、esearch and development, constructed technical public platform, question and so on attenion independent research and development. Key word：Hunan；Automobile parts industry; Value chain; Profession structure 插图索引 图 1.1 历年汽车零部件总产值及在整个汽车工业中的比重 .3 图 2.1 我国历年汽车零部件投资情况.17 图 2.2 汽车零部件产业链.19 图 3.1 Correlogra
14、m of Residuals1 .28 图 3.2 Correlogram of Residuals2 .29 图 3.3 预测结果输出图 .30 图 3.4 零部件发展的层次结构模型图.36 湖 南 大 学 学位论文原创性声明 本人郑重声明： 所呈交的论文是本人在导师的指导下独立进行研究所取得的研究成果。除了文中特别加以标注引用的内容外，本论文不包含任何其他个人或集体已经发表或撰写的成果作品。对本文的研究做出重要贡献的个人和集体，均已在文中以明确方式标明。本人完全意识到本声明的法律后果由本人承担。 作者签名： 日期： 年 月 日 学位论文版权使用授权书 本学位论文作者完全了解学校有关保留、使用学位论文的规定，同意学校保留并向国家有关部门或机构送交论文的复印件和电子版，允许论文被查阅和借阅。本人授权湖南大学可以将本学位论文的全部或部分内容编入有关数据库进行检索，可以采用影印、缩印或扫描等复制手段保存和汇编本学位论文。 本学位论文属于 1保密?，在_年解密后适用本授权书。 2不保密?。 （请在以上相应方框内打“ v” ） 作者签名： 日期： 年 月 日 导师签名： 日期： 年 月 日 硕士学位论文 1第
