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1、I硕士学位论文硕士学位论文 （专业学位）（专业学位） 摘要摘要山区公路路侧风险评估及护栏设置方法研究山区公路路侧风险评估及护栏设置方法研究姓 名学 号：所在院系：交通运输工程学院职业类型：专业技术人员专业领域：交通运输工程指导教师： 副指导教师： 二一四年十一月II随着公路建设向山岭重丘区延伸，因地形、地质、经济发展水平等因素的限制，设计过程中往往出现设计指标接近或超过设计限值的情况，再加之山区公路雨雪、冻雨等天气较多出现，使得山区公路频频发生群死群伤的特别重大伤亡事故，大部分都与路侧危险物有关。因此，近些年来，关于山区公路路侧事故安全的研究逐渐丰富，如何有效的提前预估路侧事故发生的可能性，如
2、何提早的发现路侧安全隐患，并采用合理的路侧防护设施成为目前人们关注的焦点。论文在充分调研了贵州省山区公路的实际情况后，系统的对影响路侧危险的因素进行了分析，以单因素影响下的事故率数据为基础，经多元回归建立了多因素安全指标模型。随后，基于模糊数学理论建立了不同路段路侧风险评估模型，对路段特征及路侧危险程度组合情况下的路侧风险进行等级划分。最后，根据划分的不同路侧风险等级,对如何合理选择路侧护栏的防护等级及结构类型进行了研究。通过本文的研究，可有效提高贵州省山区公路路侧安全水平，减少山区公路伤亡事故的发生。为今后省内新建公路的安全设计及建设资金合理利用、已运营公路的事故风险分析及安全改善措施实施提
3、供技术指导，其研究成果的应用对于省内山区公路的建设和运营具有重要的意义。关键词：关键词：山区公路；路侧事故；模糊数学理论；风险评估模型IIIABSTRACTAlong with the highway construction extend to the mountains high, in the design process, it often appears that the design index is close to or exceed the limiting design value because of the topography, geology, economic d
4、evelopment level and other factors, coupled with rain and snow and freezing rain weather rain and snow and freezing rain weather appear more, which lead to frequent especially serious casualty accidents, most are related to the roadside hazards. Therefore, in recent years, research on roadside safet
5、y in mountain highway become gradually abundant, how to forecast the roadside accident possibility in advance effectively, how to discover roadside hidden danger ahead of time, and adopt reasonable roadside protective facilities become the focus of attention at present.After investigating and Survey
6、 of the actual situation of mountain highway in Guizhou province, this paper analyzes the factors that influence the roadside danger systematically, multifactor security index model is built using multiple regression based on the accident rate data under the influence of single factor. Then, roadsid
7、e risk assessment model is established based on fuzzy mathematic theory, roadside risk under the combination cases of road characteristics and roadside danger level is graded. Finally, according to the different roadside risk grade, study on how to reasonably select the protection level and structur
8、e type of roadside guardrail is carried out. Through the study of this paper, it can effectively improve the level of roadside safety in Guizhou mountain highway and reduce the occurrence of casualty accident in mountain highway. And this study can provide technical guidance for safety design and re
9、asonably utilization of construction found of new roads, the accident risk analysis and safety improvement measures of operating highway. The application of research results is of great significance to the construction and operation of mountain highway in the province.Key Words: mountain highway, ro
10、adside accident, fuzzy mathematic theory, risk assessment model同济大学 硕士学位论文 目录IV目目 录录第 1 章 绪论.1 1.1 研究背景及意义.1 1.2 国内外研究现状.3 1.2.1 国外研究现状.3 1.2.2 国内研究现状.4 1.3 主要研究内容及技术路线.5 第 2 章 山区公路路侧事故影响因素研究.7 2.1 山区公路路侧影响因素分析.7 2.1.1 道路影响因素.7 2.1.2 交通流影响因素.9 2.1.3 交通环境影响因素.10 2.2 评价指标体系的构建.12 2.3 指标权重计算.14 2.3.1 层次分析（AHP）方法.14 2.3.2 权重计算.15 2.4 本章小结.16 第 3 章 山区公路路侧风险评估方法研究.17 3.1 集对分析（SPA）理论.17 3.2 路侧风险评估模型.18 3.3 路侧风险等级划分.23 3.4 应用实例分析.23 3.4.1 工程概况.23 3.4.2 评估路侧事故风险等级.
