《全球资产膨胀与资产评估业的挑战globalassetinflationand》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《全球资产膨胀与资产评估业的挑战globalassetinflationand（15页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、全球资产膨胀与资产评估业的挑战 Global Asset Inflation and Challenge for The Valuation Profession殷剑峰 Yin Jianfeng 中国社科院金融所，所长助理 IFB of CASS, Assistant General Director危机前的全球资产膨胀 Global Asset Inflation Before Crisis在这次全球危机前， 主要经济体金融资产 膨胀的速度远快于 GDP增长率Before the global crisis we are in, financial assets in major devel
2、oped countries grows at a striking higher speed than the GDP growth. Financial Asset/GDP金融发展越来越来脱离实体经济 Financial Development Is Deviating from What Real Economy Really Needs以美国为例，在各类金融工具 （不含衍生品）中，为金融活 动服务的比重不断上升，危机 前已经达到了50。For instance, in total amount of financial products (excluding derivatives)
3、of U.S., the ratio of products offering service for the financial industry increases quickly and reaches to 50% before crisis.Shares of financial products with different functions in total amount金融资产膨胀：房地产泡沫 Asset Inflation: Housing Market Bubble以美国居民资产结构为例， 随着房价攀升，从2000年 开始，有形资产增长快于金 融资产，其占比在2005年
4、达到了近40。Because of housing price bubble, the ratio of tangible asset to total assets of U.S. household increases from 30% in 2000 to 40% in 2005.金融资产膨胀：金融股泡沫 Asset Inflation: Financial Stock Bubble 受房地产市场的推动，美国金 融股票的市值与非金融股票市 值的比重从2001年的15上 升到2006年的45。Housing bubble contributes significant proceeds t
5、o U.S. financial corporations and boosts their stock prices. The ratio of market value of financial corporations to non-financial ones increases from 15% in 2001 to 45% in 2006. 金融资产膨胀：证券化泡沫 Asset Inflation: Securitization Bubble美国 “私营”证券资产占比 由80年代的0上升到2007 年的12，资产总额达到 了4万5千亿美元。In U.S, non-GSE secur
6、itization develops quickly since 1980s, and amounts to 12% of total securitization market in 2007.金融资产膨胀促成了美国居民的消费热潮 Asset Inflation Promotes Consumption Boom in U.S. Household Sector. 美国居民部门的储 蓄率从80年代初 的10左右持续 下降到2006年的 接近0；同时， 储蓄额也从90年 代的3500亿美元 持续，在有些季度 甚至是负储蓄。Saving rate of U.S. household decrea
7、sed to nearly zero in 2006.金融资产膨胀刺激了银行消费信贷 Asset Inflation Stimulates Bank Loan to Household.对居民的贷款和对居民的 住宅按揭贷款占美国银行 全部贷款的比重上升到 2006年的67和55。In total U.S. bank loan, the ratio of household loan and mortgage increased to 67% and 55% in 2006.经济增长储蓄率下降 消费率提高资产价格 上涨全球 经济增长美元需求 增加信贷便利性 （美元创造）财富效应金融机构 资产负债
8、表 改善以美国为中心的世界经济增长模式 Global Economic Growth Model关于资产膨胀和危机的认识 Conclusions about Asset Inflation and Crisis 美联储反周期的货币政策 Anti-Business Cycle style of Monetary Policy of FED 自由放任的金融监管政策 Laissez-Faire Financial Regulation System 评级机构的责任：模型风险、道德风险 The Problems of Rating Agency: Model Risk, Moral Risk 共舞的中
9、国股市和房市 In China, Real Estate Market Is Dancing with Stock Market as well. 自2003年以来，中国的 房屋销售价格、土地交易 价格与股市市盈率的变化 高度相关。In China, housing price and land price has a high correlation with PE ratio of stock market since 2003.中国似乎也正在经历资产膨胀的过程 China Is Undergoing an Underlying Process of Asset Inflation and
10、 Possible Asset Bubble.如果假设2002年底中 国住房和土地的收益率 为10，那么，今天 则分别只有1.9和 4.5。If we assume the returns in housing and land market are 10% at the end of 2002, then they are only 1.9 and 4.5 separately today. 唯一的区别：中国的高储蓄率 The Only Difference: Higher Saving Rate in China Comparing with U.S.前四大经济体的储蓄率和投资率（）美国日
11、本德国中国储蓄 率投资 率储蓄 率投资 率储蓄 率投资 率储蓄 率投资 率1980年代18.420.331.929.820.321.934.935.2 1990年代17.419.029.928.322.622.139.837.82001 200814.118.924.923.623.017.945.940.9政策建议 Suggestions 关于宏观经济政策的建议：既要稳定，又不要泡 沫。 Suggestion for Macro-Policy Authority: Stabilization but no Bubble. 关于资产评估行业的建议：不要成为资产膨胀的 加速器 Suggestion for Valuation Industry: Dont Become the Accelerator for Asset Inflation.谢谢！Thanks!
