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1、Flash Economics 18 January 2018 - 77 Patrick Artus Tel. (33 1) 58 55 15 00 PatrickArtus Crises are always triggered by US monetary policy Since the late 1990s, financial crises and the associated recessions have systematically been triggered by US monetary policy. In the second half of the 1990s, t
2、he Federal Reserve let the US equity bubble inflate without reacting; the bursting of this bubble in 2000 triggered a global recession;From 2002 to 2007, the Federal Reserve allowed a property bubble to inflate in the United States without reacting and allowed the development of mortgage loan securi
3、tisation with abnormally low risk premia; the bursting of the property bubble from 2007 triggered the global subprime crisis;In 2013, the Federal Reserves announcement that it would end quantitative easing in 2014 triggered capital outflows from emerging countries and a steep deterioration in these
4、countries economies.The Federal Reserve has therefore triggered global recessions either through laxity in the face of bubbles and debt or by conducting a monetary policy without looking at its effects on other countries. What risks of such a nature are now found in US monetary policy? Probably the
5、risk of the Federal Reserve causing the bond bubble that it allowed to swell burst in the future. Distribution of this report in the United States. See important disclosures at the end of this report. Flash Economics 2 Our theory: For more than 20 years, global crises and recessions have stemmed fro
6、m US monetary policy US monetary policy: - Has been lax: it allowed the equity bubble to inflate in the second half of the 1990s; the property bubble (and associated credit) to inflate from 2002 to 2007; and the bond bubble to inflate since 2010; - Has made changes to US monetary policy without cons
7、idering the consequences for the rest of the world. This was the case in the recent period with the announcement of the end of quantitative easing. We think that both characteristics of US monetary policy are behind the global crises and recessions of the past 20 years. US monetary policy and global
8、 recessions 1- The second half of the 1990s In the second half of the 1990s, US monetary policy remained quite accommodating (Chart 1A) and allowed an equity bubble to inflate in the United States (Charts 1B and C). -4-202468-4-202468959799010305070911131517Chart 1A United States: Nominal GDP and Fe
9、d Funds rateNominal GDP (Y/Y as %)Fed Funds rate (as %)Sources: Datastream, BEA, Natixis01002003004005006007008009001 00001002003004005006007008009001 000959799010305070911131517Chart 1B United States: S as such differences may arise as a result of the application and implementation of alternative a
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