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1、Technology, Media &TelecommunicationsPredictions2016ContentsForeword 1Technology 3Women in IT jobs: it is about education, but it is also about more than just education 4Trailing millennials are the pro-PC, not the post-PC, generation 8Touch commerce: the mobile online checkout gets an express lane
2、12Graphene: research now, reap next decade 14Cognitive technologies enhance enterprise software 17Media 21Virtual reality: a billion dollar niche 22Mobile games: leading, but less lucrative 26Mobile ad-blockers: saved by the app? 28The award for stable box ofce revenues in the face of digital media
3、goes to 30US TV: erosion, not implosion 35European football scores $30 billion 39eSports: bigger and smaller than you think 42Telecommunications 45The dawn of the Gigabit Internet age: every bit counts 46Used smartphones: the $17 billion market you may never have heard of 50The rise of the data excl
4、usive 53VoLTE/VoWiFi: capacity, reach and capability 57Photo sharing: trillions and rising 59Endnotes 62Recent Deloitte thought leadership 78Contacts at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) and its member rms 79ForewordWelcome to the fteenth edition of Predictions for the Technology, Media and Te
5、lecommunications (TMT) sectors.The last 15 years have been a golden era for innovation: multiple TMT products and services that we now take forgranted were niche or non-existent back then.In 2002, homes typically had dial-up Internet access, boxy television sets, wired speakers, standalone digital c
6、ameras,shopping catalogues and xed line telephones. Photos were stored in albums and shelves bulged with CDs andDVDs; LPs had been banished to the attic or sold off.Candy bar shaped mobile phones had monochrome screens and were predominantly used to make calls andexchange text messages. Instant mess
7、aging, e-mail, e-commerce, maps, search engines, photos, videos and otheronline services that are now routinely accessed via smartphones were predominantly PC-based at the start of 2002.3G networks had only just launched commercially, offering speeds of a few hundred kilobits per second. As mosthome
8、s still had dial-up Internet, it was faster for most people to visit a video rental store, return home, watch thelm, and then return it rather than to wait for a le to download.Over the last 15 years, connectivity has become steadily faster, enabling many new categories of service to becomemainstrea
9、m, including a number of current staple applications: search engines, social networks, video-on-demand,e- and m-commerce, app stores and online video games.These new services have driven the growing appeal of digital devices; smartphones and tablets being the twostandout devices to have emerged over
10、 the period. These new device types have tended to complement rather thanusurp existing products.While the past 15 years has witnessed startling change, it has also seen remarkable continuity. Broadcast television,radio, cinema, live entertainment, printed books and in-person meetings remain popular
11、 despite multiple digitally-enabled alternatives.2016 promises to be yet another exciting year for the TMT sector. In this years edition we look at a fascinating arrayof trends, each developing at its own momentum.We look forward to the progress of cognitive technologies in enterprise software, to n
12、ew approaches in acceleratingmobile commerce check-out, and to the progression of graphene. We highlight the continuing strength of demandfor the PC especially among millennials.We welcome the commercial launch of virtual reality, and note the continued growth of both premium sports (witha focus on
13、football in Europe), as well as the emerging eSports sector. We expect mobile should become the biggestgames platform in 2016, overtaking console and PC.We observe that the key traditional media of television and cinema should continue to hold their own, even if notgrowing. We explore the current an
14、d near-term impact of ad-blockers on mobile advertising revenues.We discuss key drivers of bandwidth demand including the emergence of Gigabit to the home, trends in photosharing and a continued rise in data exclusive communicators, as well as the potential impact of the take-up ofnetwork-managed vo
15、ice over data services.Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2016 1Finally, we expect the used smartphone market to surpass $17 billion in trade-in value, making it a signicantconsumer device market in its own right.We hope that you nd this years set of predictions an interesting read a
16、nd that they bring a useful dynamic to yourdiscussions.Paul Sallomi Paul LeeGlobal Technology, Media & Telecommunications Partner, Head of Global TMT Research(TMT) Industry Leader Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LimitedDeloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited2TechnologyWomen in IT jobs: it is about education, but it is also about more than just education 4Trailing millennials are the pro-PC, not the post-PC, generation 8Touch commerce: the mobile online checkout gets an expre
