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1、Abstract This paper presents the population size and structure as well as the medical bed demands in Shenzhen and every district, by using the MATLAB software and the grey dynamic model. Meanwhile, through the search of children pneumonia and cerebrovascular diseases, we establish elementary functio
2、n to predict forecast the bed demands in medical institutions of different types.Regarding question 1, as we know the population of Shenzhen is mainly made up of the resident and non-resident population. And the resident population in Shenzhen in the future ten years is firstly forecasted through us
3、ing the MATLAB software for polynomial fitting. Considering that the non-population is influenced by many factors, we regard the dynamic flow of the urban population as a grey system, and then we applied Grey Dynamic Model1 to forecast the future development trend of the floating populationFurthermo
4、re, according to the demographic data given in the annexes , the population structure is divided to three parts, under 14 years old as children, from 14 years old to 60 years old as middle age, over 60 years old as the old. matlab，predict the population structure in the future ten years in Shenzhen.
5、Moreover, after getting the data about medical beds in Shenzhen from 1789 to 2010 by looking for information, and then we draw the relationship between the population and the number of the medical beds with the MATLAB software. Finally, according to the proportion of the population in Shenzhen and i
6、n every district , the medical bed demands in future ten years is predicted based on the above analysis. Considering question 2, we select children with bronchitis and cerebrovascular disease, and through finding the information we get the morbidity of Shenzhen in 2010. Based on the total number of
7、the sick ,the elementary functions are established to obtain the required number of beds and predict the bed demands of both diseasea in medical institutions of different types.Keywords: MATLAB Polynomial Fitting Grey Dynamic Model Prediction of the Medical Beds .IntroductionWith the rapid developme
8、nt of economy in Shenzhen, its health career has formed a city, district and community medical service system, which has solved the medical problems of current population to a certain extent. However the floating population in Shenzhen is far more than the household population, where the young popul
9、ation occupies the absolute advantage, and with the increasing proportion of the elderly population, which result a large difference between the current medical needs and that in the future. And the future medical needs are relative to the population structure and the economic development .Whats mor
10、e, reasonable prediction can make medical facilities match the future population health needs. So we need successfully complete the following problems: Analyze the variation characteristics of the resident population and non-resident population in Shenzhen in recent ten years, and then predict the d
11、evelopment trend of population size and structure in the future ten years in Shenzhen , witch on the basis of to predict the medical bed demands of the whole city and every district in future ten years ;According to the age structure of the population in Shenzhen , the prevalence situation and the c
12、ollected data, choose several diseases (such as: lung cancer and other malignant tumor, myocardial infarction, cerebral vascular disease, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, pneumonia, childbirth) to forecast the bed demands in medical institutions of different types.AnalysisThe characteristic of the p
13、opulation in Shenzhen is that the floating population is far more than the household population. In view of this situation , we selected the resident and non-resident population to study .Firstly , after analyzing the variation characteristics of the population in Shenzhen in the resent ten years ,
14、we decided to analyze the variation of the resident population through the MATLAB fitting results of analysis in the future ten years . The non-resident population includes tourism, visiting relatives and business trips, and we assumed that the floating population as the non-resident population. Fur
15、thermore, we got the number of the floating population by looking for information in previous years. In view of the above analysis, we applied Grey Dynamic Model to forecast the future development trend of the floating population.Furthermore, according to the demographic data given in the annexes ,
16、the population structure is divided to three parts, under 14 years old as children, from 14 years old to 60 years old as middle age, over 60 years old as the old. And then through the MATLAB software , we predict the structure in the future ten years in Shenzhen.Moreover, after getting the data about medical beds in Shenzhen from 1789 to 2010 by looking for information, and then we draw the relationship between the population and the number of the medical beds with the MA
