《数据挖掘论文英文版》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《数据挖掘论文英文版（13页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、Jilin Provinces population growth and energy consumption analysisDemonstrationIllustrationConduction & suggestionEnglishMajor Statistics Student No. 0401083710 Name Niu Fukuan Jilin Provinces population growth andenergy consumption analysisSummarySince the third technological revolution, the energy
2、has become the lifeline of national economy, while the energy on Earth is limited, so in between the major powers led to a number of oil-related or simply a war for oil. In order to compete on the worlds resources and energy control, led to the outbreak of two world wars. Chinas current consumption
3、period coincided with the advent of high-energy, CNPC, Sinopec, CNOOC three state-owned oil giants have been going out to develop international markets, Jilin Province as Chinas energy output and energy consumption province, is also active in the energy corresponding diplomacy. Economic globalizatio
4、n and increasingly fierce competition in the energy environment, Chinas energy policy is still there are many imperfections, to a certain extent, affect the energy and population development of Jilin Province, China and even to some extent can be said existing population crisis is the energy crisis.
5、KeywordEnergy consumption; Population; Growth; Analysis;Data sourceI select data from China Statistical Yearbook 2009 Jilin Province 1995-2007 comprehensive annual financial data (Table 1). Record of the total population (end) of the annual data sequence Xt, mind full of energy consumption (kg of st
6、andard coal) annual data sequence Yt.Table 1 1995-2007 older and province GDP per capita consumption level of all dataYearsOf the total population XtNational energy consumption(kg) YtLN Of the totalpopulation XtLN National energy consumption(kg) Yt1995 121121 15842626.8 11.70454532 16.578214761996 1
7、22389 17807599.5 11.71495978 16.695135861997 123626 16454620.6 11.72501616 16.616116881998 124761 14459799.9 11.73415519 16.486882941999 125786 15270420.4 11.74233733 16.541428212000 126743 16020315.2 11.74991669 16.589368172001 127627 16629798.1 11.75686723 16.626706712002 128453 17585215.7 11.7633
8、1836 16.682569092003 129227 19888035.3 11.76932583 16.805628872004 129988 21344029.6 11.77519742 16.876282612005 130756 23523004.4 11.78108827 16.973489412006 131448 25592925.6 11.78636662 17.057826532007 132129 26861825.7 11.791534 17.106216721. Timing diagramFirst, the total population of Table 1
9、(end) of the annual data series Xt, full of energy consumption (kg of standard coal) annual data series Yt are drawn timing diagram, in order to observe the annual population data series Xt and national annual energy consumption data sequence Yt is stationary, by EVIEWS software output is shown belo
10、w.Figure 1 of the total population (end) sequence timing diagramFigure 2 universal life energy consumption (kg of standard coal) sequence timing diagramFigure 1 is a sequence Xt the timing diagram, Figure 2 is a sequence Yt of the timing diagram.Two figures show both the total population (end) or un
11、iversal life energy consumption (kg of standard coal) index showed a rising trend, the total population of the annual data series Xt and national annual energy consumption data sequence Yt not smooth, the two may have long-term cointegration relationship.2. Data smoothing(1)Sequence Logarithm Figure
12、s 1 and 2 by the intuitive discovery data sequence Xt and Yt showed a significant growth trend, a significant non-stationary sequence. Therefore, the total population of first sequence Xt and universal life energy consumption (kg of standard coal) Yt, respectively for the number of treatment to elim
13、inate heteroscedasticity. That logx = lnXt, logy = lnYt, with a view to the target sequence into the linear trend trend sequence, by EVIEWS software operations, the number of sequence timing diagram, in which the population sequence logx timing diagram shown in Figure 3, the full sequence of energy
14、consumption logy timing diagram shown in Figure 4.Figure3 Figure 4Figure 3 shows the total population observed sequence logx and universal life energy consumption (kg of standard coal) sequence logy index trend has been basically eliminated, the two have obvious long-term cointegration relationship,
15、 which is the transfer function modeling an important prerequisite. However, the above sequence of numbers is still non-stationary series. Respectively logx and logy sequence of ADF unit root test (Table 5 and Table 6), the test results as shown below.(2)Unit root testHere we will be on the provinces total population and the whole sequence Xt energy consumption (kg of standard coal) sequence data Yt be the unit root test, the results obtained by Eviews software operation is as follows:Table 2 Of the total population sequence logxObtained from Table 2: Total population sequence data Xt of the
