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1、I摘 要石油资源既是重要的战略能源，同时也是国民经济建设和社会发展中的重要物质基础。随着我国三大石油公司在境外的成功上市，如何对石油资源进行相关的经济评价，改变多年来我国“重视技术储量而轻视经济储量”的观点，从而实现以单纯片面追求储量任务的完成向以经济效益为中心实现原油商品利润最大化的方向转变。因此，在原油的勘探开发过程中，对其进行相关的经济评价及极限的研究就显得迫切而重要。经济评价模型的构建、分析和应用构成论文的主线。首先从理论上介绍模型构建所要用到的经济学和石油工程学中的相关理论和方法；然后在基本假设的前提下，运用上述理论和方法构建经济储量及商业油流的模型和经济极限井数及井距的模型。针对经
2、济储量及商业油流的评价模型，以准噶尔盆地腹部地区勘探开发的实际参数值为依据，计算一定勘探井数（1 口-3 口） 、圈闭面积（5 平方千米-120 平方千米） 、井深（3500 米-6000 米）和原油商品价格（1500 元/吨-4000 元/吨）所对应的经济储量和商业油流的极限值。针对经济极限井数及井距的评价模型，以准噶尔盆地南缘地区勘探开发的实际参数值为依据，并以此计算在一定井深（3500 米-6000 米）的情况下，原油商品价格（2000 元/吨-5000 元/吨）和钻井综合成本（4000 元/米-7000 元/米）所对应的经济极限井数值。最后分别对经济储量及商业油流的数据和经济极限井数及
3、井距的数据运用 SPSS 统计软件进行线性回归分析，发现以下规律：（1）经济储量（商业油流）与原油商品价格、井深和圈闭面积具有高度的线性相关性，且得到以经济储量（商业油流）为因变量，以井深、原油商品价格、圈闭面积为自变量的线性回归模型。 （2）经济极限井数与原油商品价格、钻井综合成本及井深具有高度的线性相关性，且得到以经济极限井数为因变量，以原油商品价格、钻井综合成本及井深为自变量的线性回归模型。关键词：经济评价模型；经济储量；商业油流；经济极限井数；经济极限井距 IIAbstractOil resources are important strategic energies, but als
4、o important material foundations in economic and social development. As our three major oil companies listed on overseas success, how about economically assess oil resources and radically change our the technical reserves are more important the economic reserves, the transition from pure and one-sid
5、ed pursuit of the fulfillment of reserves to the realization of profit maximization of oil products. Therefore, In the process of exploration and development of crude oil, its economic evaluation and limit of research is urgent and important.To begin with, the relevant principles and methods of buil
6、ding the model are introduced. And then, we use the above theory and methods to establish economic reserves and commercial oil stream model and the economic limit model of number of well and well spacing. For the economic reserves and commercial oil stream model, based on Zhunger Basin bellys actual
7、 data and measured at a certain number of exploitation well (1 well-3 well), trap area (5 Square kilometers-120 Square kilometers) the depth of the well (3500m-6000m), and the price of oil products (1500 yuan / ton-4000 yuan / ton) the Economic reserves, commercial oil streams the economic limit num
8、ber. For the economic limit model of the number of well and well spacing, based on Zhunger nanyuans actual data, we can calculate,at a certain depth of the well (3500m-6000m), price of oil products(2000 yuan / ton-5000 yuan / ton), the comprehensive cost of boing well (4000 yuan / ton-7000 yuan / to
9、n), the economic limit of number of well and well spacing.Besides, we have a linear regression analysis of the data of the economic reserves, commercial oil stream, the economic limit of the number of well, well spacing by the statistical software of SPSS. We can found that firstly, the relationship
10、 between the economic reserves or commercial oil stream and the price of oil products and the depth of the well and trap area is highly correlated, and obtained as a function of economic reserves or commercial oil stream to the price of oil products and the depth of the well and trap area the indepe
11、ndent variable linear regression model; secondly, the relationship between the economic limit of the number of well or the well spacing and the price of oil products and the comprehensive cost of boing well and the depth of the well is highly correlated, and obtained as a function of the economic li
12、mit of the number of well or the well spacing to the price of oil products and the comprehensive cost of boing well and the depth of the well as the independent variable linear regression model.Key words： economic evaluation model; economic reserves; commercial oil stream；economic limit of the number of welleconomic limit of well spacingIII目 录第 1 章 绪论.11.1 问题的提出 .11.2 研究的目的及意义 .11.3 国内外研究现状 .21.4 研究内容及理论方法 .41.5 研究思路及创新 .6第 2 章 经济评价研究理论概述.82.1 经济方面的理论知识概述 .82.2 技术方面的理论知识概述 .92.3 经济极限井数及井距概念 .12第 3 章 经济储量及商业油流评价模型构建.133.1 经济储量及商业油流概述 .
