《那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-欧洲央行的真正目标是什么？》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-欧洲央行的真正目标是什么？（7页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、Flash Economics 05 December 2017 - 1443 Patrick Artus Tel. (33 1) 58 55 15 00 PatrickArtus CORPORATE & INVESTMENT BANKING INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS & INSURANCE SPECIALIZED FINANCIAL SERVICES What is the ECBs real objective? The ECBs monetary policy is surprisingly expansionary given the cyclical positi
2、on of the euro zone, and will remain so even though the central bank will exit quantitative easing in 2018. This raises a question: what is the ECBs real objective? Is it its official objective, namely to lift inflation? Is this evenpossible if labour costs no longer respond to the fall inunemployme
3、nt in the euro zone? Is it a willingness to uphold the fiscal solvency of all the euro-zonecountries (is fiscal dominance at play)? It is possible that the ECBhas this objective of averting another crisis in the euro zone; Is it because its highly expansionary monetary policy is irreversibleand the
4、ECB wants to avoid the losses for investors that wouldresult from an increase in interest rates and credit spreads? If thisis the case, this stance is dangerous: the longer monetary policynormalisation is delayed, the more difficult it will become and themore likely an eventual financial crisis will
5、 become.Distribution of this report in the United States. See important disclosures at the end of this report. Flash Economics 2 The ECBs surprisingly expansionary monetary policy The euro zones cyclical position is improving rapidly: growth is higher than potential growth (Chart 1A) and unemploymen
6、t is declining rapidly (Chart 1B). -6-4-20246-6-4-2024602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 1AEuro zone: Real GDP and potential growth(Y/Y as %) Real GDP Potential growth*Sources: Datastream, Eurostat, Natixis (*) Per capita productivity smoothed over the past 5 years + labour for
7、ce (Y/Y as %) 789101112137891011121302 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 1BEuro zone: Unemployment rate (as %)Sources: Datastream, Eurostat, NatixisWhy, even though the ECB will end quantitative easing in 2018, is the euro zones monetary policy going to remain highly expansionary?
8、 Very low interest rates (Chart 2A), likely continuation of long-term repos, level of liquidity remaining highly abundant (Chart 2B). -6-4-202468-6-4-20246802 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 2AEuro zone: Nominal GDP, interest rate on 10-year government bonds and euro repo rate N
9、ominal GDP (Y/Y as %)Sources: Datastream, Eurostat, Natixis 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,50002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 2BEuro zone: Monetary base and outstanding repos (in EUR bn) Monetary base Outstanding reposSources: Datastream, ECB
10、, NatixisWhat is the ECBs real objective? Why is it keeping its monetary policy highly expansionary despite the strong improvement in the euro zones cyclical situation? Flash Economics 3 What is the ECBs real objective? 1- To get inflation back up? The ECBs official objective is of course to get inf
11、lation (Chart 3A) and expected inflation (Chart 3B) sustainably back up around 2%. -1012345-10123450230450670891012134156178Chart 3AEuro zne: Ifltion (Y/ as %) Inflatin (CPI) Uderlyig inflation (core* CPI)Sources: Datstream, Erta, Ntix(*) Excl. enrgy and fod0,0,51,01,52,02,53,00,0,51,01,52,02,53,040
12、56078091012134156178Chart 3BEuro zne: Iflation swaps (zero cupon) 5-year inflation swap 10-r iflti Sources: Blomberg, NatixsGiven the current level of inflation, this requires it to keep its monetary policy expansionary. But does the ECB really believe that its policy will lift inflation when the ra
13、pid decline in unemployment is bringing about no acceleration in labour costs in the euro zone (Chart 4)? -202468101214-202468101214030450670891012134156178Chart 4Euro zne: Nominal pe cpita wge, unit labour cst d umloyent rat Nominal per capit wage (Y/ as %) Uit lbour ost (Y/ s %) nemplyent rate (a
14、)Sources: Datstream, Eurosta, Natixs Flash Economics 4 2- Upholding the fiscal solvency of the euro-zone countries? When we look at the fiscal situation of the euro-zone countries other than Germany (Chart 5), we see that these countries regained fiscal solvency in 2017. -4-202468-4-2024680230450670
15、89101213415617Chart 5Euro zne xcl. Gemny: Fiscal defict(as % of nial GDP) Fiscal defict (in psitve trms) il fit hat would stabile th public debt ratio*Sources: Datstream, Eurosta, Natixs forecast(*) Public debt (as % of nminl GDP) x nominal GDP ( per yar) /10But we also see that the return to fiscal
16、 solvency is linked to the fall in interest rates and in the interest paid on the public debt (Chart 6). 2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.6570758085909510023045067089101213415617Chart 6Euro zne xcl. Germny: Iterst paid n public debt (2) Public debt (as % of nminal GDP, LHS) (1) Interst pid on the public debt (as % of nminal GDP, RHS) (3) Aparnt iterst rat =10 x(1) /(2) (as %, RHS)Sources: Datstream, AMECO, Natixs(*) (3)
