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1、Equity Research 19 July 2018 CORE Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. In
2、vestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 66. U.S. Semiconductors 2Q18 Preview: No Fix for Cyclical Fears but There Are Still Opportunities The Semiconductor group h
3、as underperformed other areas in Tech so far this year (Sox +8% vs FANG +47%, Software +21%) as cyclical fears (memory, analog, autos) were compounded by trade concerns (ZTE, tariffs) leaving valuations the lowest in two years. Heading into earnings, we dont think largely better results will turn th
4、is tide but we do still see several opportunities heading into the 2H for names with company-specific drivers (MRVL, QRVO, NVDA, IPHI) regardless of whether there is a relative value rotation back into the group. Best Earnings Setups: We favor RF as we believe content winners like QRVO/SWKS set up n
5、icely into an AAPL ramp with expectations still tempered. Between the two, we actually think SWKS has the lower bar for September. INTC has clearly been beaten up given concerns on competition, process technology and the CEO transition yet sustained positive trends across servers/PCs should drive be
6、tter guidance again. CRUS is our best UW setup given the stock is up 9% since the speculated AirPod2 win yet risk to Sept and substantial downside to FY19 guide (we model -17% vs. -10% guide) given AAPL content loss. When Did We Become Crypto Junkies?: The increasing news flow of GPU inventory as cr
7、ypto and inventory restocking wanes have done little to knock AMD, which has gone from the worst to best performing stock in the group. There are so many moving pieces that we hesitate from making an overly negative call into earnings but we do think AMD has a tough setup with the stock up 64% YTD y
8、et they didnt fully de-risk crypto, GPU and Ryzen channel fill is complete, and more importantly the rubber is meeting the road in servers (5% exiting year means Sept needs to show progress). We stick with NVDA, given a de-risked crypto exposure and more importantly an upcoming product launch after
9、Pascal channel fill is complete. Nothing Lasts ForeverWell Maybe a Little Longer: Admittedly, we didnt see the analog outperformance run-up over 2017 coming and have been equally surprised that positive trends have hung in YTD. June estimates look beatable (TXN preannounced better) and in a vacuum,
10、September looks to be trending better as well (despite tough comps) yet we believe trade/macro concerns will keep companies tempered. ZTE is Back, Baby: Despite the $400M escrow from ZTE, two competing bills with varying degrees of limitation on ZTE sales are currently being reconciled in Congress.
11、If this is resolved names like SWKS (2-3%/qtr), QRVO (1%/qtr), IPHI (up to 5%/qtr), and MTSI (likely mid single %/qtr) can see a nice tailwind. M EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight; RS: Rating Suspended Industry View: Pos: Positive; Neu: Neutral; Neg: Negative Barclays | U.S. Semiconductors 19 July 2
12、018 3 CONTENTS No Fix for Cyclical Fears but there are Still Opportunities . 4 Semis Range Bound in 1H on Trade and Cyclical Concerns . 6 Semis Underperforming Broader Tech YTD . 7 PMIs Still Expansionary, Big Uptick in U.S Outpaces Downtick in Global Trends . 8 RF Market: Normal Seasonal AAPL Ramp
13、with No Delay, China Continues to Improve in 2H . 9 Healthy PCs, Broad Server Strength, DRAM ASP Could Be Up in Q3 . 10 Barclays Estimates Heading into Earnings . 13 Earnings Schedule . 15 AMD Reports 2Q18 Wednesday, July 25 . 16 Aquantia Reports 2Q18 Wednesday, July 25 . 18 Cirrus Logic Reports C2Q18 Wednesday, August 1 . 20 Cypress Reports 2Q18 Thursday, July 26 . 22 IDTI Reports C2Q18 Monday, July 30 . 24 Inphi Repo
