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1、Can bad luck be explained? 生活中的倒霉事能解释吗？ Toast always lands butter side down. It always rains on bank holidays. You never win the lottery, but other people you know seem to . Do you ever get the impression that you were born unlucky? Even the most rational person can be convinced at times that there
2、is a force out there making mishaps occur at the worst possible time. We all like to believe that Murphys Law is true (if it can go wrong, it will). 每次吐司掉到地上总是抹了黄油的那一面贴地。每逢公假日必定下雨。你买彩票从来没中过 大奖,但是你认识的人里似乎有人你有没有觉得自己生来就是个倒霉蛋？即使是最理智 的人有时候也会对此深信不疑，认为冥冥之中有一种力量让他们在最糟糕的时期里灾祸连 连。我们都愿意相信墨菲法则是对的（“该出错的，终将出错”）。
3、Part of the explanation for bad luck is mathematical, but part is psychological. Indeed there is a very close connection between peoples perception of bad luck and interesting coincidences. 人之所以走背运，部分是概率的问题 , 部分是心理上的问题。的确，人们对背运的感知和 一些有意思的巧合之间有着紧密的联系。 For example, take the belief that bad things alwa
4、ys happen in threes (just like buses .!) This popular notion would be unlikely to stand the scrutiny of any scientific study, but it must have some basis in experience, otherwise the phrase would never have arisen in the first place. What might be the rational explanation? 就拿“坏事成三”这种想法来说吧（就像等公交车一样，要
5、么不来，要么一下来三辆！）。这种 流传甚广的观念可能根本经不起科学的检验，但是它必定有一些现实的依据 , 不然的话也 不会有这样的说法了。那么，什么样的解释才是合理的呢？ The first question is what is bad? 我们要考虑的第一个问题是“什么是坏事？” Some things are only marginally bad, for example the train arriving five minutes late. Some are extremely bad, such as failing an exam or being sacked. So bad
6、ness is much better represented as being on a spectrum rather than something which is there or not there. 有些事情只是稍稍有点不好，比如火车晚点五分钟。有些事情则是糟糕透顶，比如考试不及 格，或是被炒了鱿鱼。所以我们更应该把事情的好坏看成是一个程度的问题，而不是非好即 坏。 A particular event may only be a misfortune because of the circumstances around it. The train arriving five m
7、inutes late is a neutral event if you are in no hurry and reading an interesting newspaper article while you wait. It is bad if you are late for an important meeting. 某件事情有可能因为相关的一些因素而变成了不幸的事。火车晚点五分钟，如果你边读着报 纸上一篇有趣的文章边等车，并不赶时间，那么这就是一件无关紧要的事。但是如果你要去 参加一个重要会议，而且马上要迟到了，那火车晚点就变成坏事了。,1,When it comes to b
8、ad things happening in threes, what may be most important of all is the duration and memorability of the first event. Take a burst pipe while you are away on holiday, for example. It may take less than an hour to flood the house, but this one bad event can remain alive and kicking for many months, w
9、ith the cleaning up operation and the debate with your insurers acting as constant reminders of the original event. 谈到坏事成三的问题，其中最关键的因素是第一件倒霉事持续的时间有多长以及给人的印象 深不深。比如说，你外出度假期间家里的水管爆裂了。也许不到一个小时你的家就变成了一 片汪洋，而在接下来的几个月中你的脑子会不停地想起这桩倒霉事，因为你要把房子清理干 净，还要和保险公司就赔偿问题讨价还价，这些都会让你不断地想起这件事。 The longer the first bad e
10、vent sticks in the front of your mind, the more opportunities you will have to experience two more bad events. A month later someone bumps the back of your car and a week after that you lose your wedding ring. The mind which is already on a low from the first event will quickly leap to connect the s
11、ubsequent misfortunes as part of the series. It wouldnt matter that there could be a two-month timescale over which everything happened. By the time you have recovered from the water damage you are actively looking out for the next disaster. The timescale has been extended as long as is necessary to
12、 confirm the original prophecy. 第一件倒霉事困扰你的时间越长，你遇到两件倒霉事的几率就越大。说不定一个月之后，有 人开车追尾撞了你的车。又过了一个星期，你的结婚戒指不见了。出了第一件倒霉事，你的 情绪本来就很低落，这时你会很快地把后来发生的事情联系到一起，把它们看作是有关联的 一连串事件。即使这几件事情的时间跨度可能长达两个月之久，那也不会改变你的看法。等 你从浸水事件中平复过来的时候，你已经在积极地等待下一个灾难的发生了。这个时间跨度 已经被拉长了，直至能够证明 你之前的预言是对的。 As with coincidences, in bad luck ther
13、e is a tendency to look for the examples which confirm the theory, and ignore those which dont (because they are less interesting). Single bad events happen all the time. That alone should be enough to disprove the theory. Bad things also come in twos. But it is more likely that a friend will tell y
14、ou three bad things have happened to me, isnt that typical than only two bad things have happened to me, which just proves that the theory doesnt work. After all, the latter is tempting fate! 人们碰上倒霉事的时候会像遇到巧合的时候一样，去寻找一些事例来验证他们先入为主的想 法，而忽略掉与这种想法有出入的事情（因为那些事情不是那么有趣）。孤立的倒霉事每时 每刻都在发生。光凭这一点就可以推翻“坏事成三”的理论
15、了。坏事也可以是成双的。但是你 的朋友很可能会对你说：“我一连碰到了三件倒霉事，可真是应了那句俗话！”，而不是说： “我只碰上了两件倒霉事，这不正好证明了坏事成三这个说法不成立吗？”毕竟，说后一种 话是要冒风险的！ There is, however, at least one rational reason why bad events might cluster together. It is related to probability and independence. Unlucky events are not always independent of each other. A
16、nybody who is made redundant is bound to suffer some depression. That will lower the bodys defences, making the person vulnerable to illness, and also making them less alert and responsive (so they may be more likely to drop a precious vase, for example). So while the probability of being made redundant on any particular day and the probability of being sick may,2,3,both be small, the chance of both occurring is almost certainly higher than the product of the two probabilities. 但是，至少有一个合理的解释
