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1、摘 要乌江是贵州省内第一大河，乌江多梯级枢纽的兴建将极大改善乌江的航运条件，为乌江区域经济和航运事业带来了新的契机，乌江干流梯级水利枢纽将配套建设通航设施，但通航设施存在着通航设施建设进度不一致、承船箱尺寸不一致、通过时间不一致、通航流量不一致等问题，直接形成“短板”效应，随着沿江经济发展，日益增长的运输需求与枢纽通航设施通过能力之间将产生矛盾，为未雨绸缪、最大限度地提高乌江通航设施通行效率，充分发挥乌江黄金水道的优势，合理利用运输网络中各种资源，优化设计各货类船舶的高效船舶货运组织方案已迫在眉睫。乌江多梯级枢纽区域的船舶货运组织属于复杂运输网络系统，目前对于枢纽区域船舶货运组织的研究主要以定
2、性分析为主，定量分析较少且没有站在综合运输系统规划的角度分析，而针对乌江的相关研究至今尚未涉及。由于乌江船舶货运系统的复杂性，构建的理论优化模型与实际可能会产生偏差，优化的船舶货运组织方案的可行性需要验证，计算机仿真技术的发展为其提供了手段，为此本文针对乌江多梯级枢纽区域通航环境特点，尝试采用理论优化与仿真模拟相结合的新方法，优化设计出乌江多梯级枢纽区域高效船舶货运组织方案。 本论文首先分析多梯级枢纽的建设对乌江船舶货运组织带来的影响；其次针对乌江多梯级枢纽区域船舶货运系统特点，改进现有网络优化模型，构建出广义成本最小的乌江高效船舶货运组织优化模型，其中引入单重休假规则M/G/1枢纽排队系统模
3、型确定船舶通过枢纽时间，并求解出初步优化方案；接着针对乌江船舶货运系统离散特性，基于arena平台构建出面向对象的仿真模型，以验证理论优化方案的可行性及存在的问题；最后通过理论优化方案与仿真模拟的交互优化过程，最终提出适合乌江多梯级枢纽区域货运网络的高效船舶货运组织方案。关键字：乌江 多梯级枢纽 网络优化改进模型 arena仿真建模 高效船舶货运组织方案AbstractWujiang River is the largest river in Guizhou province, but the Wu River shipping channel condition have not been
4、able to meet the needs of development of shipping. the construction of cascade hydro-projects will greatly improve the shipping condition of Wujiang River and bring opportunity for the developing of regional economy and the shipping industry, the multi-hub cascade of Wujiang will be supporting the s
5、hipping facilities, but there are several problem about shipping facilities: each shipping facilities has inconsistent construction progress, different size of ship lift, different time to have ship passed, different navigation flow problem and other issues, leading to a short board effect, by the d
6、evelopment of economic along the Wujiang River, the conflict will be created by the different growing demand of transportation and passing capacity of navigation hub, bring a great difficulty for the organization of shipping in restriction of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects. To plan ahead to ma
7、ximize the efficiency of high-grade channel and navigation facilities in Wujiang ,giving full play to the advantages of the Wujiang River golden waterway, rational using of transport network resources, a efficient multi-cargo organization program should be made so that the whole channel Wujiang casc
8、ade hydro-projects district will be eased off. Currently, the qualitative analysis play a main role in the research of shipping organization in the hub region, quantitative analysis is not much and cant analysis the whole system in a overall view, whats more, the shipping organization like Wujiang R
9、iver multi-cascade hydro-projects issue has not yet been addressed. Network optimization model often be taken used of in solving the complex organization freight transport networks, but the limitations goal of network optimization model can not make a comprehensive assessment optimization results. C
10、omputer simulation technology have gradually entered the field of transportation planning, but simulation technology mainly work out as a tool of validation and evaluation, taking use the simulation technology to optimize will be effected by subjective factor and difficult to find the optimal soluti
11、on.Based on the above reasons, the following aspects will be taken in the research work. First, qualitative analysis the influence of construction of a multi-cascade hydro-projects on shipping organization, then based on the characteristics of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects, improving the exis
12、t network optimization model to make out a lowest generalized cost model of shipping organization in Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects region, solving the model to get the initial optimization shipping organization program. on the other hand, introduction the idea of queuing theory to analysis th
13、e multi-cascade hydro-projects. Then, on the based of analysis of the discrete freight system of Wujiang multi-cascade region, building the simulation model in a ideological of object-oriented to simulate and test the initial program to find out the possible problem with the initial program. Finally
14、, taking use of computer simulation technology and mathematical programming method in general to optimize the initial program of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects shipping organization, getting a reasonable program which can take use of Wujiang multi-cascade hydro-projects shipping system in a ef
15、ficient way.Keywords: multi-cascade hydro-projects；computer simulation；optimization for freight shipping organization；the queuing system目 录摘 要IAbstractII目 录IV第1章 绪论11.1 研究背景及意义11.2 国内外研究现状21.2.1 内河枢纽区域货运组织方式研究21.2.2 交通仿真建模研究31.3研究内容和研究方法41.3.1研究内容41.3.2研究方法5第2章 乌江多梯级枢纽区域船舶货运组织环境及存在问题72.1船舶货运组织环境分析72
16、.1.1货种货量82.1.2航道102.1.3港口102.1.4枢纽通航设施112.1.5运输船型112.2乌江多梯级枢纽区域船舶货运组织存在的问题122.2.1乌江多梯级枢纽区域货物需求量及供需缺口122.2.2乌江多梯级枢纽通航存在的问题142.3本章小结15第3章 乌江多梯级枢纽区域船舶货运组织理论优化模型建立及实现173.1货运网络定义173.2基本假设及说明183.2.1中转方式183.2.2目标函数中的运输成本193.2.3广义运输成本函数193.2.4港口吞吐量193.2.5航道及公路通过能力假设193.3模型建立193.3.1目标函数203.3.2约束条件203.3.3单船年货运量求解方法213.4求解方法223.5单重休假规则M/G/1枢纽排队系统模型建立及应用233.5.1排队系统
