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1、February 2020 The social contract in the 21st century Outcomes so far for workers consumers and savers in advanced economies Executive summary Since its founding in 1990 the McKinsey Global Institute MGI has sought to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy As the business and
2、economics research arm of McKinsey it is not commissioned by any business government or other institution For further information about MGI and to download reports please visit McKinsey Global Institute cV9UrUpZgZmVlXdUMBnNmR8O8QaQpNnNtRqQiNrRsQjMmOsPaQoPvNMYoMnPuOnRzR The social contract in the 21s
3、t century Outcomes so far for workers consumers and savers in advanced economies Authors James Manyika San Francisco Anu Madgavkar Mumbai Tilman Tacke Munich Jonathan Woetzel Shanghai Sven Smit Amsterdam Abdulla Abdulaal Dubai February 2020 Preface What the social contract is and how and why it chan
4、ges has preoccupied philosophers economists and social scientists for at least four millennia encompassing the Code of Hammurabi Plato s Republic and the European Enlightenment when among others Jean Jacques Rousseau used the term in his 1762 book On the Social Contract At its core the social contra
5、ct is the implicit relationship between individuals and institutions History suggests that the discussion about the social contract is most active in times of broad economic social and political upheaval It is thus perhaps not surprising that the subject has once again become topical given the shift
6、s fueled by technology and globalization in market and political economies since the start of the 21st century not to mention the 2008 financial crisis Public sentiment as expressed in opinion polls over the past few years suggests that we are living in a new era of rising discontent mistrust of ins
7、titutions and an economy that does not work well for everyone This remains true despite significant progress in some economic indicators including employment rates and GDP growth along with technological advancements and improvements in education and longevity Discussion of the social contract often
8、 encompasses the political economy and society s institutions including governments as well as issues of values and social justice in communities small and large local and global In this research our focus is on its economic aspects This report is the latest MGI publication focusing on shifting econ
9、omic outcomes for different groups of individuals Previous publications include 2016 reports on income stagnation consumer trends and investment returns and 2019 papers on inequality and on labor share of national income 1 The research was led by James Manyika chairman of the McKinsey Global Institu
10、te Anu Madgavkar and Tilman Tacke MGI partners based in Mumbai and Munich respectively MGI directors Sven Smit and Jonathan Woetzel provided input guidance and support as did Jan Mischke an MGI partner in Zurich The research team was led at different stages by Abdulla Abdulaal Maggie Desmond and Man
11、uel Sch nfeld Team members were Yunnan Jiang Joh Hann Lee Kimberley Moran Katie Parry and TJ Radigan We are grateful to external academic advisers who guided and reviewed our work Martin Baily senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Richard Cooper professor of international economics at Harvard U
12、niversity Harold James professor of history and international affairs at Princeton University Hans Helmut Kotz program director at the SAFE Policy Center at Goethe University and resident fellow at the Center for European Studies at Harvard University Dani Rodrik professor of international political
13、 economy at the John F Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University Michael Spence Nobel laureate and professor of economics at New York University s Stern School of Business and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and Laura Tyson Distinguished Professor of the Graduate School at the Unive
14、rsity of California Berkeley This research has benefited from a growing body of work on various aspects of the implicit social contract We are particularly grateful to the following authors whose work was a core 1 Previous McKinsey Global Institute reports include Urban world The global consumers to
15、 watch March 2016 Diminishing returns Why investors may need to lower their expectations May 2016 Poorer than their parents Flat or falling incomes in advanced economies July 2016 A new look at the declining share of labor income in the United States May 2019 and Inequality A persisting challenge an
16、d its implications July 2019 iiMcKinsey Global Institute source of data and research for us throughout this report Jacob S Hacker The Great Risk Shift The New Economic Insecurity and the Decline of the American Dream 2019 Peter Hall and David Soskice Varieties of Capitalism The Institutional Foundations of Comparative Advantage 2001 and Joseph Stiglitz Amartya K Sen and Jean Paul Fitoussi Measurement of economic performance and social progress 2009 We also gained insight from OECD publications p
