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1、 Disclosures as we will go on to explain Risk 2 the US consumer may not be as healthy as headline figures suggest Despite tight labour markets and robust wage growth cracks are beginning to appear in US consumers balance sheet With credit card delinquency rates rising a key risk to watch out for in
2、2020 could be the degradation of the US banks asset quality albeit from a very strong starting point That said overall the US banks picture is a healthy one especially compared to European names So long as the US does not tip into a recession we expect their fundamentals to remain favourable versus
3、their European peers From a European credit point of view we are also overweight US names in both EUR IG and GBP IG see European Credit Outlook 2020 The tale of two tails 25 November 2019 US banks continue to compare favourably to their European peers Fixed Income Credit 13 February 2020 14 16 CAMRE
4、LS Overall Screen Bank Score Quartile Handelsbanken 7 8 1 Goldman Sachs 7 5 1 KBC 7 5 1 DNB 7 4 1 JP Morgan 7 4 1 Credit Suisse 7 3 1 Wells Fargo 7 2 1 Morgan Stanley 7 2 1 Groupe BPCE 7 2 1 Rabobank 7 2 1 UBS 7 2 2 ING 7 2 2 Swedbank 7 1 2 Bank of America 7 1 2 ABN Amro 7 0 2 Nordea 7 0 2 Citi 7 0
5、2 SEB 6 9 2 Barclays 6 6 2 Credit Agricole 6 5 2 Nationwide 6 3 3 BFCM 6 2 3 Danske 6 1 3 Lloyds 6 1 3 RBS 6 1 3 Standard Chartered 6 0 3 BNP Paribas 5 4 3 Intesa Sanpaolo 5 3 3 BBVA 4 9 3 Commerzbank 4 9 3 Caixabank 4 8 4 UniCredit 4 8 4 Santander 4 8 4 Societe Generale 4 6 4 Caixa Geral 4 6 4 BCP
6、4 3 4 Deutsche Bank 4 1 4 Monte dei Paschi 3 6 4 Banco BPM 3 5 4 Novo Banco 3 4 4 Source HSBC calculations Note the scores are assigned based on company data in line with the methodology explained in European Banks Credit Outlook 2020 Along for the ride 25 November 2019 US banks in red added to CAMR
7、ELS screen for the first time Risk 2 US consumer spending The current consensus is for the US consumer to prop up the economy extending the current economic cycle despite weak industrial production At first glance high levels of consumer confidence tight labour markets and robust wage growth should
8、be supportive for consumer spending However we have demonstrated in the past that positive economic data are not necessarily bullish for spreads History suggests the best time to sell spread duration is when fundamentals are at their cyclical best see European Credit Strategy Credit fundamentals goo
9、d at the peak 3 July 2018 After all cyclical indicators tend to peak when the economy is at its strongest just before a recession Although we are not calling for a US recession we do not agree with the consensus that the US consumer is as strong as headline indicators would suggest Robust wage growt
10、h does not necessarily translate into strong consumption growth if some of the wage increases are used to service consumer debt Indeed the recent rise in wage growth has not been accompanied by a commensurate increase in consumer spending Scope for disappointment on US consumer spending 15 Fixed Inc
11、ome Credit 13 February 2020 Unsecured consumer debt has been rising On paper it would seem that the US consumer balance sheet looks reasonably healthy overall debt to disposable income ratios have fallen since the crisis chart 17 and the rise in leverage in the US economy has been concentrated in th
12、e public sector and non financial corporates However the fall in consumer indebtedness has been driven primarily by falling mortgage levels after the housing bubble burst in 2006 Unsecured credit such as credit card loans auto loans and student loans has been rising since the financial crisis and is
13、 now near historical highs chart 18 17 US consumer debt secured and unsecured may have fallen since 2009 18 but expensive unsecured debt levels have risen Source HSBC calculations Fed Z1 Source HSBC calculations Fed Z1 This is a concern in our view All else being equal debt incurred to finance the p
14、urchase of a non depreciating asset such as a mortgage is more productive than that raised to finance consumption credit cards Household equity can rise with asset prices despite the mortgage on their balance sheets Borrowing to consume however merely brings forward future consumption and can be det
15、rimental for growth further down the road Moreover unsecured debt such as credit cards have a much higher interest charge and present a heavier burden for consumers to sustain The lower for longer environment may have brought down 30y mortgage rates but has not materially reduces the rates on auto f
16、inance loans or credit card charges Therefore the rise in unsecured debt is likely to present an increasing drag on consumers ability and willingness to spend That trend has accelerated in the past six years In the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis consumers repaired their balance sheets and paid down their credit card debt and auto loans But since 2013 both auto loans and credit card balances have been increasing chart 19 alongside the structural increase in student loans that has bee
