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1、 Chapter12 TheNeoclassicalSchool MonetaryEconomics JOHNGUSTAVKNUTWICKSELLIRVINGFISHERRALPHGEORGEHAWTREY PriceLevelChangesImplicationforPublicPolicyForcedSavingWicksellonImperfectCompetitionElasticityofDemand 1 JOHNGUSTAVKNUTWICKSELL Whydopricescollectivelyriseorfall Toanswerthisquestion Wicksellturn
2、edtoananalysisofinterestrates PriceLevelChanges Thenormalornaturalrateofinterestdependsonsupplyanddemandforrealcapitalthatisnotyetinvested Theinteractionofsupplyanddemanddeterminesthenaturalinterestrate Therateofinterestatwhichthedemandforloancapitalandthesupplyofsavingsexactlyagree andwhichmoreorle
3、sscorrespondstotheexpectedyieldonthenewlycreatedcapital willthenbethenormalornaturalrate Thenormalornaturalrateofinterestappliesonlytocreditbetweenindividuals Bankscreatecredit theycanextendloansevenatverylowratesofinterest Thebankrateofinterestmaybeeitherlessthanorgreaterthanthenormalornaturalrateo
4、finterest Wheneitherofthesetwosituationsoccurs thepricelevelwilleventuallychange Bankrate naturalratesaving thedemandforconsumptiongoodsandservices capitalinvestments income thepricesofconsumptiongoods Bankrate naturalratesaving thedemandforconsumptiongoodsandservices capitalinvestments income thepr
5、icesofconsumptiongoods Wicksell sanalysisofinterestratesandhispredilectionforreformledhimtoemphasizetheroleofgovernmentandthecentralbankinpromotingeconomicstability Theprincipalcauseofcyclicalfluctuations hesaid isthefactthattechnologicalandcommercialprogresshasnotmaintainedthesamerateofadvanceasthe
6、increaseinneeds especiallyofanexpandingpopulation Wickselldidnotpursuetheserealcausesofbusinessfluctuationsingreatdepth Heinsteadfocusedhisattentiononthemonetarycauses Toeliminatethislattercause headvocatedthatbanksestablisharateofinterestthatneitherraisesnorlowerscommodityprices thebankrateofintere
7、stjustequalsthenormalornaturalrateofinterest Wicksell sanalysisofinterestratesandhispredilectionforreformledhimtoemphasizetheroleofgovernmentandthecentralbankinpromotingeconomicstability InhisInterestandPrices publishedin1898 hebecamethefirsteconomisttoadvocatestabilizingwholesalepricesbycontrolling
8、discountandinterestrates ImplicationforPublicPolicy Wickselldidnotpursuetheserealcausesofbusinessfluctuationsingreatdepth Heinsteadfocusedhisattentiononthemone tarycauses Toeliminatethislattercause headvocatedthatbanksestablisharateofinterestthatneitherraisesnorlowerscommodityprices thatis oneatwhic
9、hthebankrateofinterestjustequalsthenormalornaturalrateofinterest Wicksellfearedthatthegrowingproductionandstockofgoldwouldinflatecurrency thuscausinginterestratestofallandpricestorise Therefore thefreecoinageofgoldshouldbesuspended andtheworldshouldpassovertoaninternationalpaperstandard Indiscussing
10、aggregatesavingandinvestment Wicksellanalyzedthetheoryofforcedsaving Thiswasnotanewidea Thisenforcedrestrictionwould infact constitutetherealaccumula x0002 tionofcapitalthatmustbeachievedifcapitalinvestmentistoincrease Therealsavingwhichisnecessaryfortheperiodofinvestmenttobeincreasedisinfactenforce
11、d atexactlytherightmoment onconsumersasawhole ForcedSaving Wicksellrecognizedtheinadequacyofthepurelycompetitivemodelinretailmarkets WicksellonImperfectCompetition Withrespecttoacompletemonopoly WicksellfollowedtheleadofCournotandothersbyindicatingthatthevolumeofsalesisartificiallyrestrictedtothepoi
12、ntthatyieldsmaximumprofits Everyriseinpricereducesthequantityofgoodsdemanded Fisher sTheoryofInterestTheQuantityTheoryofMoneyMonetaryPolicy 2 IRVINGFISHER Fisherperceivedtwofactorsinteractingtoestablishtheinterestrate theimpatiencerateandtheinvestmentopportunityrate Fisher sTheoryofInterest Theimpat
13、iencerateistheextentofthecommunity swillingnesstoobtainpresentconsumption income bygivingupfutureconsumption income Unliketheimpatiencerate whichinvolvessubjectivevaluations theinvestmentopportunityrateisdeterminedbyrealfactorssuchasthequantityandqualityofresourcesandthestateoftechnology Thelesswesa
14、veandinvestasasociety theloweristherelativevalueofpresentconsumption Fisher simpatiencerate andthehigheristhemarginalrateofreturnoninvestment Theequilibriuminterestratewilloccurwheretherateofreturnoninvestmentandtherateatwhichsocietyiswillingtotradeoffpresentforfutureconsumptionareequal Fishersawfiv
15、edeterminantsofthepurchasingpowerofmoney oritsinverse thepricelevel 1 thevolumeofcurrencyincirculation 2 itsvelocityofcirculation 3 thevolumeofbankdepositssubjecttocheck 4 itsvelocity and 5 thevolumeoftrade TheQuantityTheoryofMoney Fisher sequationofexchangeisshownasEquation MV M V PT AccordingtoFis
16、her pricesvarydirectlywiththequantityofmoney MandM andthevelocityofcirculation VandV andvaryinverselywiththevolumeoftrade T Thefirstofthesethreerelationsisthemostimportant saidFisher becauseitconstitutesthequantitytheoryofmoney FisherassumedthatM thevolumeofdemanddeposits tendstoholdafixedrelationtoM thequantityofcurrencyincirculation thatis depositsarenormallyarelativelyfixed definitemultipleofcurrency Fisheralsohadtoassumethatthevelocityofcirculationandthevolumeoftradeareconstant Theincreasein
