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1、基于 UML 建模的区域用电量预测系统的设计和实现摘 要近年来，国民经济的快速发展带动电力产业的大规模建设。与此同时，如何能够在电力供给与电力消耗之间达到相互协调，合理利用电能的问题日益凸显。要解决合理利用协调配比电能的问题，用电量预测是这个问题的关键。如何对用电量进行预测以及如何保证预测精度则是近些年的一个热点研究领域。用电量预测是基于数理统计的数学建模研究，是通过对历史用电量数据进行统计分析，找出其中蕴含的规律，获得其影响因素，利用现代仿真和计算机技术，模拟内在的规律并进行推演。以往的用电量预测工作大多依赖于人力，实时效果差，精度不高等因素一直困扰着电力公司的决策层。为了提高用电量预测的精
2、度，降低劳动量，给决策层以有力的决策支持，开发了具有高精度模型预测、多种结果输出模式，方便快捷的用电量预测决策支持系统。针对区域用电量预测系统的使用场景，设计使用 C/S 模式来实现区域用电量预测系统；针对区域用电量预测系统的数据问题，研究开发了基于 EXCEL的大批量数据导入功能；针对区域用电量预测系统的开发目的，设置多种预测模型完成对数据的精准预测。第一章从区域用电量预测系统的开发背景和研究意义入手，对区域用电量预测系统和智能决策系统的国内外研究现状进行阐述，并给出了文章的整体框架结构和内容安排。第二章详细介绍了区域用电量预测系统所使用的背景技术，包括 .NET 框架、关系数据库和统一建模
3、语言 UML。第三章介绍了区域用电量预测系统的系统建模、需求分析和数据库设计。依照软件开发的流程，介绍区域用电量预测系统的实现过程。第四章给出区域用电量预测系统的体系结构和模块划分。在明确系统模型后对模型进行更为细致的模块划分，在模块中揉入系统核心的预测模型，完成对系统主体功能的开发。最后总结了全文所做的工作，以及在开发过程中遇到的新问题和新难题，并对未来的发展趋势进行展望。关键词：用电量预测 .NET 框架 统一建模语言The Design and Implementation of a RegionElectricity Consumption Forecast and DecisionS
4、ystem Base On UMLAbstractWith the development of national economy, the electricity industry has been greatly improved.Meanwhile, the problem on the rational use of energy has become increasingly prominent, which isaimed to achieve the coordination between the power supply and consumption. Electricit
5、y consumptionforecast becomes a key issue in this problem. How to forecast the electricity consumption is a hot topicof the related field in recent years.Electricity consumption forecast is a kind of mathematic modeling study, which is based onmathematics statistics method. In order to identify its
6、regular pattern and to obtain impact factors, thehistorical data of electricity consumption should be analyzed. Then, the internal pattern can be simulatedand deduced through the use of modern simulation and computer technology. The factors of lowreal-time and low precision had been plaguing the pow
7、er companys decision-makers. To improve theprecision of electricity consumption forecast and provide support to decision-makers, this paperdevelops a convenient and efficient electricity consumption forecasting decision support system.According to the practical scenario, C/S mode is applied to reali
8、ze the regional electricityconsumption forecast system. In order to solve various types of data problems in the system, huge dataimport function based on Excel is developed. For the purpose of system development, many predictmodels are also developed to achieve accurate forecasting.Chapter 1 present
9、s the development background and research significance of the regional electricitydemand forecasting system. Many existing related works are discussed in this chapter. The contentframework and section arrangement are also presented.Chapter 2 discusses the background technologies, which would be cond
10、ucted this research, suchas .NET framework, relationship database and Unified Modeling Language.In chapter 3 the system modeling, requirement analysis and data base design are introduced.According to the software development process, this paper also proposes the development process of theregion elec
11、tricity consumption forecasting decision system.Chapter 4 gives the architecture and modules division of the region electricity consumptionforecasting decision system. After confirming the system model, the forecast method is added to systemmodules for completing the main features of the system.The
12、last chapter summarizes the work and some new questions which are related to the forecastingdecision support system. The futures of work are also proposed.Key words: Electricity consumption forecast, .NET framework, Unified Modeling Language图 表 目 录图 2-图 2-图 3-图 3-图 3-图 3-图 3-图 3-图 3-图 3-图 3-图 3-图 4-
13、图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-图 4-1 .NET 框架图 . 92 .NET 程序本地执行过程图 . 91 用例图图示 . 172 区域用电量预测系统用例图 . 173 区域用电量预测系统简易模型图 . 194 区域用电量预测系统使用人员类图 . 195 区域用电量预测系统操作类图 . 206 区域用电量预测系统活动图 . 217 区域用电量预测系统管理员活动图 . 228 区域用电量预测系统顺序图表示 . 239 区域用电量预测系统 E-R 模型图 . 2410 数据库结构图 . 281 区域用电量系统体系结构图 . 312 区域用电量预测系统包图 . 323 神经元模型图 . 334 三层 BP 神经网络图 . 345 BP 算法流程图 . 356 计量经济学算法流程图 . 377 灰色模型预测流程图 . 408 组合模型流程图 . 419 用户流程图 . 4210 第一层数据流程图 . 4311 用户管理流程模块 .
