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1、河北经贸大学 硕士学位论文 河北省税收收入增长研究（1998-2007） 姓名：张洋 申请学位级别：硕士 专业：财政学 指导教师：李雪筠 20090501 河北省税收收入增长研究（1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 7 ） I 中 文 摘 要 税收收入是衡量国民经济发展水平的一项重要指标，一定程度上反映了一个国家 或地区的宏观经济运行状况。作为经济社会发展的“晴雨表”，通过追踪分析税收收入 的演进过程，可以从一个侧面了解到当前社会的经济发展状况，可以帮助检验已有的发 展成果，从而有助于更好的进行下一步的经济建设。 近年来， “税收收入增长”一直是理论界关注的热点话题，尤其是对我国税收收入 增长连年
2、超过经济增长速度增长的现象的分析是理论界的焦点。 同我国税收收入变动趋 势相符，河北省税收收入近年来也保持了连续增长的势头，本文选择了 1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 7 年十 年为一个研究阶段，采用实证分析结合规范分析的方法，从不同的角度深入探讨税收收 入增长的特征、成因以及税收收入增长与经济增长之间的关系等问题，进而思考河北省 经济发展存在的一些问题，最终得出一定的结论并提出相关的政策建议。 本文首先对税收收入增长的基本理论进行介绍， 并对国内外对税收收入增长情况的 实证研究进行综述， 接着详细分析说明 1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 7 年河北省税收增长的基本情况， 包括： 从总量方面对
3、河北省税收增长情况进行介绍； 采用计量分析方法对税收收入增长与经济 增长的相关性做出探讨；采用增长率、宏观税负、税收弹性指标对税收增长情况进行分 析；分产业、分企业类型、分税种研究税收增长情况。在分析说明 1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 7 年河北省 税收收入超速增长现实情况的基础上， 总结得出这期间河北省税收收入超速增长的特征 并对主要特征进行原因分析，分别是：税收收入超速增长的原因分析；宏观税负水平过 低的原因分析。 综上分析， 得出结论： 一方面河北省税收收入增长与经济增长密切相关， 另一方面税收增长也从一个侧面反映出河北省经济发展中存在宏观税负过低、 产业结构 需要优化等问题，此外，税
4、收收入的可持续增长能力还有待提高，最后，对这些问题提 出相关的政策建议。 关键词：税收收入 河北税收 税收增长 经济增长 河北经贸大学硕士学位论文 II ABSTRACT The tax revenue is one of the important standards of measuring the level of development of the national economy, and it is an important indicator to some extent reflects how the macroeconomic situation a country or
5、 a region is. As a Barometer, the tax revenue s development can be tracked and analyzed closely so as to learn something about the development level of the current social economy. Besides, it also can help testing the development results of this society by tracking on the tax revenue s development,
6、thus it contributes to helping to improve the level of the economical construction better and better. Recently, the growth of tax revenue” has always been a hot topic of theoretical community. Especially the phenomenon that the rate of the tax revenue growth exceeds the rate of economical growth has
7、 been the focus of the theoretical circles. The tax revenue s growth of Hebei Province in recent years has maintained a continuous similar growth momentum as the changes of the tax revenue s development in the whole China. This paper chooses the year 1998 - 2007 for a 10- year phase for this study t
8、o analyze causes of the tax revenue s speeding development and the relationship between the tax revenue s development and the economical development from different perspectives by using the way of combining the way of Empirical Analysis and the way of Normative Analysis. Moreover, by using this meth
9、od it can also help to think about causes of promoting the development of economy in Hebei province deeply so that we can work out some conclusions and make relevant policy recommendations. In this paper, the basic theories of growth in tax revenue are reviewed firstly, and than the empirical studie
10、s on the tax revenue growth at home and abroad are reviewed. Secondly, it makes a detailed analysis about the basic situation of tax revenue growth in 1998- 2007 in Hebei Province, including introducing the tax revenue growth of Hebei Province totally, exploring the relevance between the tax revenue
11、 growth and the economical growth by using the way of quantitative analysis, using standards like growth rate, tax burden, tax elasticity to analyze the tax revenue growth, doing sub- industry type analysis, doing business types analysis, doing sub- study on tax revenue growth. At the base of analyz
12、ing the tax revenue growth of Hebei Province during 1998- 2007 years, it concludes the characteristics of speeding development of tax revenue in Hebei Province during this period as well as comes to the conclusion. That is the reasons for the growth of tax revenue, the reason why the Macro- tax burd
13、en is such low level. As a whole, the analysis concluded that: on the one hand, the growth of tax revenue and the growth of economy in Hebei Province is closely related to each other, on the other hand, it reflects that the Macro- tax burden in Hebei Province is too low as well as it is necessary to
14、 optimize the industrial structures. Besides, the sustainable growth ability of tax revenue needs to be improved or something. In the end, it gives some policy recommendations related to these problems. K e y w o r d s : t a x ; t a x o f H e b e i ; r e v e n u e g r o w t h ; e c o n o m i c g r o
15、 w t h 河北省税收收入增长研究（1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 7 ） 1 第 1 章 绪 论 1 1 选题的缘由及研究的目的和意义 1 . 1 . 1 选题的缘由 税收源于经济，经济决定税收，税收反过来作用于经济。税收收入是衡量国民经济 发展水平的一项重要指标，是国民经济运行的“晴雨表” ，一定程度上反映了一个国家 或地区的宏观经济运行状况，通过追踪分析税收收入的演进过程，可以从一个侧面了解 到当前社会的经济发展状况，可以帮助检验已有的发展成果，从而有助于更好地进行下 一步的经济建设。近年来， “税收收入增长”一直是理论界关注的热点话题，自 1 9 9 4 年 实行分税制改革以来，我国税收收入一直保持快速增长，尤其从 1 9 9 8年开始，我国税 收收入增长率超过 G D P 增长率，到 2 0 0 7 年止，税收收入已经保持连续十年超 G D P 增长 率增长。整体决定部分，同我国税收收入变动趋势相符，近年来河北省税收收入也保持 了连续增长的势头，税收收入呈现出超 G D P 增长的态势，这种税收增长的情况到底是怎 样的，隐藏在现象之中的内在动力又是什么，探讨这些问题的答案是本文选题的初衷。 1 . 1 . 2 研究的目的和意义 本文选择了 1 9 9 8年- 2 0 0 7年十年间为一个变动周期进行研究，一方
