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1、众包 CROWDSOURCING 韦俊龙 目录 u什么是众包 u众包的特点 u众包的优势 什么是众包 u定义：一个公司或机构把过去由员工执行的工作任 务，以自由自愿的形式外包给非特定的（而且通常是 大型的）大众网络的做法。众包的任务通常由个人来 承担，但如果涉及到需要多人协作完成的任务，也有 可能以依靠开源的个体生产的形式出现 u模式：发包方、接包方和中介机构 u本质：利用群体多样性整合群体智慧、降低偏差 众包模式 1发包方 发包方通常是企业或者拥有工作任务需要解决的个人。对于发 包方来说，其发布任务的方式有两种：一种是在公司网站上直 接发布，以悬赏的方式吸引众多的网民来参与解决问题；另外 一
2、种方式，就是通过中介机构，通常是网站社区协会等，发包 方与新型网络签订合约。 2接包方 接包方就是数量众多的互联网用户，在中国有一个特定的新名 称，叫威客。他们既可以是专业人士，也可以是非专业的兴趣 爱好者。 3中介机构 中介机构是沟通发包方和接包方的桥梁。 降低偏差 u Diversity u 统计上来说，群体偏差总是小于等于平均偏差 众包的特点 u第一，众包是对外包的颠覆。 u第二，众包蕴含著“携手用户协同创新”的理念。 u第三，众包延伸了创新边界，借社会资源为己所用。 u第四，在众包中，“草根”的创新愈发成为主流。 众包的优势 u预测市场 u解决问题&驱动创新 预测市场 u群体偏差=平均
3、偏差 多样性 u多样性=精确性 多样性的预测市场定理 预测市场 Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. The current market prices can then be interpreted a
4、s predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. For example, a prediction market security might reward a dollar if a particular candidate is elected, such that an individual who thinks the candidate had a 70% chance of being elected should be willing to pay up t
5、o 70 cents for such a security. introduction 预测市场 People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as ot
6、her institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants Introduction 预测市场 Intrade 预测市场 HSX 预测市场 HP Prediction market forecasts are statistically significantly better than official forecasts. Only 22 participants on average. 预测市场 Gallup 解决问题&驱动创新 问题的多方面的特征预示着解决方案的多样性 我们往往只考虑某些
7、特征，从而决定了我们个体视角的局 限 群体的多元差异带来视角的多样性 视角 解决问题&驱动创新 视角 u想像解决问题，就是寻找问题的全局最优解 解决问题&驱动创新 视角 找到最优解也意味着找到了最好的视角 解决问题&驱动创新 视角 找到最优解也意味着找到了最好的视角 解决问题&驱动创新 视角 Hiring people to solve a hard problem 1,000 applicants take a test to measure their individual abilities Scores range from 60% to 90% Should you hire: A.
8、 20 people with the 20 highest scores, or B. 20 people randomly selected from the applicant pool? 解决问题&驱动创新 Perspective The best individual people tend to use similar perspectives and heuristics Problem Solving Perspective The best individual people tend to use similar perspectives and heuristics Wh
9、en does it work? Diversity trumps ability Difficulty No individual always finds the best answer Competence People dont get stuck in too many places i.e. they are reasonably well-informed Diversity For any solution there is always a non-zero fraction of people that could improve upon it Large enough
10、teams and groups When does it work? Diversity trumps ability When these conditions are satisfied, a random group will always outperform a group of the best individual problem solvers Should you be hiring people at random? NO When does it work? Diversity trumps ability Instead of “hiring at random” w
11、e can use crowdsourcing and open innovation to increase the size and diversity of our problem solving and innovation workforce “Bright Spots” Rather than solve the problem yourself, look for existing solutions The Crowd always beats its average member problem solving, innovation Diversity When does
12、it work? Diversity trumps ability When does it work? Diversity trumps ability When does it work? Diversity trumps ability When does it work? Diversity trumps ability When does it work? Diversity trumps ability When does it work? Diversity trumps ability When does it work? Diversity trumps ability Wh
13、en does it work? Diversity trumps ability When does it work? Diversity trumps ability When does it work? Diversity trumps ability Crowdsourcing also increases efficiency When does it work? Diversity trumps ability Crowdfunding uses crowds to generate startup capital When does it work? Diversity trum
14、ps ability Crowdfunding uses crowds to generate startup capital p Matthew Lillard would like a dollar. Actually, the actor best known for playing Shaggy in the live-action Scooby Doo films would like $150,000. But hed be happy if you gave him just one. Lillard is raising money on the popular website
15、 Kickstarter to fund his upcoming movie, Fat Kid Rules the World. p To date, more than 20,000 projects have been hosted on the site since the New York City-based companys 2008 launch. Kickstarter vets projects in advance (accepting about 75% of applicants) and hosts the campaigns, which can last up
16、to 60 days, for free. When does it work? Diversity trumps ability Crowdfunding uses crowds to generate startup capital p The sites two top-grossing campaigns were launched by established professionals and angel-backed companies. p In March 2012, a video game project called Double Fine Adventure was posted by well-loved industry ve
