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1、第第9章 金融发展与金融危机章 金融发展与金融危机 9.1 发展中国家的金融抑制与经济发展发展中国家的金融抑制与经济发展 9.2 导致金融危机的因素导致金融危机的因素 9.3 金融危机的一般过程金融危机的一般过程 9.4 2007-2008年的金融危机年的金融危机 9.5 新兴经济体金融危机的发展新兴经济体金融危机的发展 阅读阅读Mishkin教材 第教材 第9章章 2013-6-32 9.1 发展中国家的金融抑制与经济发展发展中国家的金融抑制与经济发展 Financial Repression Leads to Low Growth: Why? 1. Poor legal system; 2
2、. Weak accounting standards; 3. Government directs credit; 4. Financial institutions nationalized; 5. Inadequate government regulation 2013-6-3 3 9.2 导致金融危机的因素导致金融危机的因素 1. Asset Markets Effects on Balance Sheets ?Stock market decline ? Decreases net worth of corporations. ?Unanticipated decline in t
3、he price level ? Liabilities increase in real terms and net worth decreases. ?Unanticipated decline in the value of the domestic currency ? Increases debt denominated in foreign currencies and decreases net worth. ?Asset writedowns. 2.Deterioration in Financial Institutions Balance Sheets ?Decline i
4、n lending. 2013-6-3 4 9.2 导致金融危机的因素导致金融危机的因素 3. Banking Crisis ?Loss of information production and disintermediation. 4. Increases in Uncertainty ?Decrease in lending. 5. Increases in Interest Rates ?Increases adverse selection problem ?Increases need for external funds and therefore adverse selecti
5、on and moral hazard. 6. Government Fiscal Imbalances ?Create fears of default on government debt. ?Investors might pull their money out of the country. 2013-6-3 5 9.3 金融危机的一般过程金融危机的一般过程 ?Stage One: Initiation of Financial Crisis ?Mismanagement of financial liberalization/innovation ?Asset price boom
6、 and bust ?Spikes in interest rates ?Increase in uncertainty ?Stage two: Banking Crisis ?Stage three: Debt Deflation 2013-6-3 6 2013-6-3 7 9.4 2007-2008年的金融危机年的金融危机 ?Financial innovations emerge in the mortgage markets: ?Subprime and AltA mortgages ?Mortgagebacked securities ?Collateralized debt obl
7、igations (CDOs) ?Housing price bubble forms ?Increase in liquidity from cash flows surging to the United States ?Development of subprime mortgage market fueled housing demand and housing prices. 2013-6-3 8 9.4 2007-2008年的金融危机年的金融危机 ?Agency problems arise ?“Originate to distribute” model is subject t
8、o principal (investor) agent (mortgage broker) problem. ?Borrowers had little incentive to disclose information about their ability to pay ?Commercial and investment banks (as well as rating agencies) had weak incentives to assess the quality of securities ?Information problems surface ?Housing pric
9、e bubble bursts ?Crisis spreads globally 2013-6-3 9 9.4 2007-2008年的金融危机年的金融危机 ?Banks balance sheets deteriorate ?Write downs ?Sell of assets and credit restriction ?Highprofile firms fail ?Bear Stearns (March 2008) ?Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (July 2008) ?Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG, Reserve
10、 Primary Fund (mutual fund) and Washington Mutual (September 2008). ?Bailout package debated ?House of Representatives voted down the $700 billion bailout package on September 29, 2008. 2013-6-3 10 9.5 新兴经济体金融危机的发展新兴经济体金融危机的发展 ?Stage one: Initiation of Financial Crisis ?Path one: mismanagement of fi
11、nancial liberalization/globalization: ?Weak supervision and lack of expertise leads to a lending boom. ?Domestic banks borrow from foreign banks. ?Fixed exchange rates give a sense of lower risk. ?Banks play a more important role in emerging market economies, since securities markets are not well de
12、veloped yet. ?Path two: severe fiscal imbalances: ?Governments in need of funds sometimes force banks to buy government debt. ?When government debt loses value, banks lose and their net worth decreases. 2013-6-3 11 9.5 新兴经济体金融危机的发展新兴经济体金融危机的发展 ?Additional factors: ?Increase in interest rates (from a
13、broad) ?Asset price decrease ?Uncertainty linked to unstable political systems ?Stage two: currency crisis ?Deterioration of bank balance sheets triggers currency crises: ?Government cannot raise interest rates (doing so forces banks into insolvency) ? and speculators expect a devaluation. ?How seve
14、re fiscal imbalances triggers currency crises: ?Foreign and domestic investors sell the domestic currency. 2013-6-3 12 9.5 新兴经济体金融危机的发展新兴经济体金融危机的发展 ?Stage three: FullFledged Financial Crisis: ?The debt burden in terms of domestic currency increases (net worth decreases). ?Increase in expected and ac
15、tual inflation reduces firms cash flow. ?Banks are more likely to fail: ?Individuals are less able to pay off their debts (value of assets fall). ?Debt denominated in foreign currency increases (value of liabilities increase). 2013-6-3 13 Sequence of Events in Emerging Market Financial Crises 推荐阅读推荐
16、阅读 1.美美卡门卡门 M.莱因哈特莱因哈特(Camen M.Reinhart)、肯尼斯、肯尼斯 S. 罗格夫罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff) ，这一次不一样：八百年 金融危机史，机械工业出版社， ，这一次不一样：八百年 金融危机史，机械工业出版社，2012。 2.乔治乔治索罗斯索罗斯 (George Soros)，危机与变革，危机与变革:索罗斯的 金融逻辑 ，中信出版社， 索罗斯的 金融逻辑 ，中信出版社，2013。 3.美美罗伯特罗伯特阿利伯阿利伯(Robert Z.Aliber)，新国际货币游 戏 ，中国财政经济出版社， ，新国际货币游 戏 ，中国财政经济出版社，2013。 思考题：思考题：在世界政治经济全球化趋势下，金融市场一体化运转扮 演越来越重要的角色。思考以美国、欧洲、日本、中国的主要经济 关系，寻找一个把主权债务、资本流动、各国货币政策、债券市场 与股权市场、金融衍生品市场、金融创新、对冲基金、监管套利等 方方面面，相互联系在一起的逻辑框架，试图解释对世界政治经济 格局的影响。 在世界政治经济全
