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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia China Property Property Industry China Property Date 26 February 2018 Industry Update Overall strong results with bullish sales guidance ahead Overall strong FY17F results with 35% earnings growth _ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do bus
2、iness with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANA
3、LYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF PRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU. Jeffrey Gao, CF
4、A Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6256 jeffrey.gao Jason Ching, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6205 jason.ching Stephen Cheung, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6182 stephen-a.cheung Foo Leung Research Associate (+852 ) 2203 6239 foo.leung Companies Featured Country Garden Holdings (2007.HK),HKD15
5、.04 Buy China Vanke (2202.HK),HKD36.60 Buy Future Land Development Hol (1030.HK),HKD6.31 Buy Aoyuan (3883.HK),HKD6.36 Buy Logan (3380.HK),HKD11.38 Buy KWG (1813.HK),HKD12.42 Buy Source: Deutsche Bank Overall, we expect strong FY17 results for the developers we cover (Fig 1): 1) 35% earnings growth o
6、n avg due to strong sales over the past two years and low base for some names; 2) gross margin to expand to 30% (vs. 27.6% in FY16) due to ASP rally in 2016; 3) low avg borrowing cost (vs. 5.8%/7.1% in FY16/FY15) and less completed inventory though with higher net gearing due to fast expansion; and
7、4) stable dividend payout ratio (4% yield). Our FY17-19 earnings forecasts are 2-7% higher than Bloomberg consensus. Also, we believe developers will continue to give bullish sales guidance for 2018 despite overall weaker physical market (we forecast 35% sales growth for listcos). Who may beat and w
8、ho may miss? Within our coverage, we expect more than half to report strong results, and one-third to report decent results (Figure 1). In particular, Country Garden, Vanke, Logan, CIFI, Future Land and Aoyuan should deliver 30% earnings growth due to their strong sales and margin expansion, while A
9、gile, China Jinmao, Evergrande, Sino-Ocean and Sunac should record significant earnings growth due to low base. On the other hand, COLI, Greentown and SH Shimao will likely report relatively weak results with single-digit to low-teen earnings growth due to slow sales in 2016. What are the potential
10、surprises? We believe there may be positive surprises on dividends with Future Land and Longfor possibly raising their payout ratios, while Aoyuan, Logan and China Jinmao may declare special dividends. Also, the quantity/aging of the completed inventory may be even better than expected due to strong
11、 sales in 2017. In terms of downside surprises, the net gearing ratios of GZ R we expect 35% sales growth in 2018 Although the overall physical market may turn weaker this year, we believe listed developers will continue to give bullish sales growth guidance, given their abundant saleable resources
12、(landbanking volume increased 132% y-y on average in 2017 for our coverage) or strong execution. We expect 35% sales growth on average for the developers we cover. In particular, we expect several names to deliver/target 40% sales growth, including Country Garden, Future Land, Aoyuan, GZ R as such,
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