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1、GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2017 Q4 Update while this was a much better performance compared to Q4 2016, net purchases for 2017, standing at 170 tonnes, were still considerably lower compared to a year earlier. Retail investment, comprising of coin and bar demand, slumped by 11% year-on-year in the final three
2、 months of 2017, largely driven by a sharp decrease in coin demand in the western hemisphere, particularly from the United States. Physical bar investment slipped by 6% compared to Q4 2016 on the back of lower demand from Asian retail investors, led by India, where gold bar demand recorded a double
3、digit percentage decline due to frantic buying during the same period last year, following the governments demonetisation policy. (tonnes) Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 YoY % Supply Mine production 820 760 793 845 838 750 799 842 823 -1.8% Scrap 293 346 321
4、346 290 326 304 306 290 0.2% Net Hedging Supply 19 57 21 -10 -36 -17 -5 8 -17 n/a Total Supply 1,131 1,164 1,135 1,181 1,092 1,059 1,098 1,156 1,096 0.4% Demand Jewellery Consumption 640 425 408 435 604 451 497 444 583 -3.4% Jewellery Fabrication* 621 451 439 470 542 535 538 523 556 2.6% Industrial
5、Fabrication 88 86 88 89 92 92 92 92 93 1.3% .of which Electronics 61 61 64 63 66 67 67 66 67 1.4% .of which Dental year-on-year changes are based on absolute numbers, not on the rounded figures displayed. Net producer hedging is the change in the physical market impact of mining companies gold loans
6、, forwards and options positions. 6 GFMS GOLD SURVEY GFMS GOLD SURVEY Q4 2017 It is worth stressing that not everything looked gloomy; the final quarter of 2017 saw a strong rebound in buying from the official sector, as Russia bought strongly on lower prices, particularly in the final two months, f
7、urther supported by steady purchases from the Turkish central bank. Net central bank purchases recorded a gain of 36% year-on-year and, at 132 tonnes, it was the highest quarterly result since Q3 2015. For 2017 as a whole, the official sector remained an important source of demand for gold and was c
8、onsiderably higher year-on-year, although in absolute terms it was still below the unprecedented levels of previous years. Jewellery fabrication was up by 3% compared to Q4 2016, with all the major regions recording year-on-year gains. However, if we strip out exceptionally low offtake in 2016, it m
9、arked the lowest Q4 outcome since 2012. Among the largest consumers, jewellery demand in India increased by 8% in the final quarter, helped by a surge in sales during auspicious Dhanteras and lower prices later in the year, resulting in fresh restocking by jewellery fabricators. That said, this was
10、a comparison against a very low base in 2016 and Q4 offtake was in fact down by some 12% when compared to Q4 2015. Chinese demand slipped by 2% year-on-year, with ongoing losses in the pure gold segment as consumer preferences continued to shift towards more fashionable, but lower gold content piece
11、s. It is worth adding that after posting double-digit percentage declines on average since its 2013 peak, Chinas jewellery offtake appears to have finally stabilised in 2017. Physical demand was up 16% from the prior quarter and slightly higher year-on-year; however, if we keep out the exceptional s
12、ituation in 2016, it was the lowest Q4 result since 2011. Meanwhile, supply was broadly unchanged for the quarter as lower mine production was offset by reduced hedging activity, while scrap volumes remained flat year-on-year. OUTLOOK Gold prices started 2018 on an upbeat note, benefiting from a sin
13、king dollar on softer economic data and concerns that the United States may pull out of NAFTA. We believe that the geopolitical climate and equity markets will continue to support golds role as a risk hedge. In the physical markets, Indian demand is set to remain at levels similar to 2017, while Chi
14、nese investment demand will likely to pick up if we see golds price momentum going forward. We expect gold prices to average $1,360/oz and hit a 2018 peak of over $1,500/oz later in the year. Our forecast discounts three Fed rate hikes, although a potential overheating from the effect of the new tax
15、 reform could lead to more aggressive tightening, limiting golds upside. Further details and GFMS one and three year forecasts are available on Thomson Reuters Eikon. QUARTERLY PHYSICAL DEMAND down 8% year-on-year. Investment demand decreased by 22% year-on-year in Q4; the decline was primarily due
16、to frantic buying last year following demonetisation during the same period Jewellery consumption was down by 4%, however was the volume was the highest for the year. The fourth quarter ended negative year-on-year, although it was the highest for the year. Last year the same period was the best since Q2 2013, driven largely by demonetisation which triggered an unexpected demand. . FESTIVE SEASON DEMAND HOLDS FIRM
