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1、Unit 4 ARecipeforInflation解决粮价飞涨的良方In Pakistan, the prohibitive price of tea became an election issue; Mexican housewives have rioted to protest the shortage of affordable tortilla; Swaziland is facing famine, even as it exports cassava to feed the rich worlds hunger for biofuel.1 在巴基斯坦，茶叶的限制性价格成了一项
2、选举时的议题；墨西哥的家庭主妇们因买得起的玉米面饼短缺而发起声势浩大的抗议示威；尽管斯威士兰为满足发达国家对于生物燃料的需求而出口木薯，该国自身却正面临着饥馑。Rising agricultural inflation, or “agflation”, is a global phenomenon that touches everyone, and almost every day it seems to intensify. This week, the price of prime spring wheat rose by 25 per cent on the American exch
3、anges, while Russia and Kazakhstan announced fresh curbs on exports to protect domestic supplies. On the Chicago Board of Trade, the price of wheat has hit record highs of more than $12 a bushel. Since 2004 world food prices have doubled, and over the past year alone agricultural prices are up by ab
4、out 50 per cent.2 不断升级的农产品价格暴涨，或曰“农产品价格飞涨”，是一个全球性的现象，它涉及每一个人，而且，这种局面似乎日趋紧张。本周，美国农产品交易所主要的春小麦期货价格上涨了25，而俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦则宣布采取新的限制出口的措施以保护国内的供应。美国芝加哥期货交易所的小麦价格已达到了历史新高，超过了每蒲式耳12美元。自2004年以来，世界粮食价格已经翻了一番，仅去年一年，农产品价格就上涨了约50。For those in the developing world who spend their money on food and little else, this is
5、 a matter of life and death. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation says the rising price of cereals such as wheat and maize are a “major global concern”.3 对于发展中国家那些把钱主要用于购买粮食而很少有钱花费在其他方面的人来讲，这是一个关乎生死存亡的问题。联合国粮食和农业组织宣称，像小麦和玉米这样的谷物价格的上涨是一个“全球担心的大问题”。In the West, the damage caused by inc
6、reases in the price of food is damped by the costs of transporting and refining it into finished products, and by the general prosperity of consumers. Hard-pressed British farmers even regard current trends as a bonus. The large supermarket chains and food processors are also doing their best to res
7、ist the great food inflation. But agflation is making the lives of policy makers more difficult and is hitting household budgets.4 在西方，粮价上涨造成的损失被粮食的运输和加工成本以及消费者普遍的富裕所冲淡。境况困窘的英国农民甚至认为目前的趋势是一种意外的礼物。大型超市连锁店和食品加工商也在尽最大努力抵御粮价的飞涨。但是农产品价格的飞涨确实让政策制定者的日子更难过了，并且也影响着居民的家庭预算。Yesterdays “producer price” figures
8、in the United States confirmed the clear inflationary problem faced in factories and food processing plants a leading indicator of what will soon be seen in the shops. Over the past 12 months, producer prices rose 7.4 percent, the fastest pace since October 1981. Food prices climbed 1.7 per cent, th
9、e most since October 2004. Crude food prices that is, the input costs faced by US suppliers increased 2.7 per cent. The equivalent figures in the UK reported recently were even more alarming: food prices up 8.5 per cent and input food costs up by between 14.9 per cent (imports) and 36 per cent (home
10、 grown) on the year.5 昨天公布的美国“生产者价格”数据证实了工厂和食品加工场所面临的明显的粮价飞涨问题这是商店商品价格即将上涨的主要风向标。在过去的12个月里，生产价格上涨了7.4，是自1981年10月以来最大幅度的上涨。食品价格攀升了1.7，是自2004年10月以来最大的涨幅。未加工的粮食价格即美国供应商的粮食购入成本上涨了2.7。英国最近公布的相应数据更令人震惊：食品价格上涨了8.5，而粮食购入成本本年度的涨幅在14.9(进口)到36(国产)之间。Commodity price increases tend to feed on themselves, if that
11、s an appropriate expression. Oil-price hikes raise the cost of hauling crops from continent to continent, especially some of the higher-end “cash crops” the West has developed a taste for; mange-tout嫩豌豆flown in from east Africa is bound to become more pricey as the cost of aviation fuel climbs, even
12、 if the underlying production conditions dont change. Higher grain prices tend to push the cost of rearing livestock up. And higher oil prices incentivize farmers to switch to biofuel crops, often at the behest of nervous governments worried about the security of their energy supplies.6 商品价格的上涨往往具有相
13、互依赖的“链式”反应，如果这种说法合适的话。石油价格的节节攀升提高了洲际间运输粮食一尤其是西方人喜欢的一些高端的“商品作物”一的成本；随着航空燃料价格的攀升，即便基本的农业生产的条件不变，空运自非洲东部的菜豆的价格势必更高。更高的谷物价格往往会使家畜饲养成本提高。而且更高的石油价格会刺激农民转而种植生物燃料作物一往往是在对本国能源供应感到担忧的那些神经质的政府的要求之下。 Sharply escalating bills at the supermarket checkout fall into the category economists call “high visibility inf
14、lation”. The increases themselves may not be so large in relation to the earnings of those affected, but they make people feel poorer and make them sceptical about official claims about subdued inflation. Thus they tend to increase inflationary expectations, and pay demands.7 超市收款处钱数急剧提高的结算单正是反映了经济学
15、家所称的“高可见度通货膨胀”。价格增长本身也许和那些受到影响的人们的收入没有太大的关系，但确实让人们感觉到更加贫困，而且使他们开始怀疑政府所宣称的对通货膨胀的抑制是否属实。因此，他们往往以为通货膨胀会加剧，也会要求提高他们的薪金。Normally the Wests central banks would nudge interest rates higher to deal with such pressures, but the fragile state of the worlds leading economies makes such action tricky. Some such
16、 as the US Fed have implicitly favoured a little more inflation over recession. Hence higher inflation co-exists with slowing or stagnant economies. Rising food prices are putting the “agflation” into “stagflation”. How has it come about?8 通常西方国家的中央银行会稍微提高利率以应付这些压力，但是世界主要经济体脆弱的状况往往使这种措施的效果难以预料。一些中央银行一比如美联储一实际上暗中希望在经济衰退期问通货膨胀的程度更大一点。因此，更高的通货膨胀和缓慢的或是停滞的经济增长并存。上涨的食品价格把“农产品价格飞涨”转变成了“滞胀”。这一切到底是怎么发生的呢?Mercifully, some o
