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1、Structured Problem Solving & Hypothesis GenerationConsulting Skills WorkshopGoals of this moduleLay out a systematic approach to solving business problems “Structured Problem Solving Establish a common “modus operandus for Consulting teamsPractice the suggested process on a real-life exampleConsulti
2、ng Skills WorkshopDefining the issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendationsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementFind InsightsAnalyse DataGather DataForm HypothesesSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howDefine the IssuesWhat are the questions keeping
3、 you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysisConsulting Skills WorkshopHypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our clients problemForm HypothesesDefin
4、e the IssuesGather DataAnalyse DataFind InsightsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStat
5、ements that provide direction and structure for the analysisConsulting Skills WorkshopHypotheses are developed in three stepsWhat are the real strategic issues?What is the impact on the organisation?What are the priorities?We think . . . It looks like . . . The right answer may be . . . The options
6、could be . . . We believe this to be true . . .A series of statements, not yet backed by dataBased on initial data search or expert opinionsA number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.Is there a market for white label insurance products?Direct channels are growingRetailers ha
7、ve a strong channel and brandThere are existing productsChubb Insurance can access new business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulting Is low cost of acquisition and profitable businessDefine the questionReview and Describe Multiple AssertionsForm the hypothesis123Consulting Skills WorkshopA
8、 hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the impactThink through these three stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it:What is the issue?What is the underlying opportunity? Where is the advantage?What do you think causes the issue?What a
9、re the key drivers of the process?What is the impact of the issue?How can we tell there is an opportunity?Why do we care?“x is anopportunity.“due to.“resultingin.Consulting Skills WorkshopDEFINE THE PROBLEMSTRUCTURE THE ANALYSISFIND THE SOLUTIONOur problem solving approach produces results through a
10、nswering a simple series of questionsIs there a problem or opportunity?If so where does it lie?Why does it exist?What could we do about it?What should we do about it?Fine, but IWIK H2 do this.Consulting Skills Workshop“If you dont know where you are going, any road will take you there. -AnonymousWhy
11、 problem definition mattersConsulting Skills WorkshopIn structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitionsUS Car MarketLight TrucksPassenger CarsBig 3Mini VansSport UtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerBut be careful why does this not work?Consulti
12、ng Skills WorkshopMutually Exclusive and Comprehensively ExhaustiveThe most important rule for any structure you imposeConsulting Skills WorkshopDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat differentiates a good hypothesis from a bad one?On target:Answers the core question on the clients mindAccurate:Embraces the entir
13、e range of competitive or profit driversMinimal: “Occams razorActionable:Can be quantified and testedOn timeGood Hypotheses AreCannot be refutedCannot possibly be quantifiedRequire you to “Boil the OceanAre so obvious that nobody can intelligently disagree with itOr look like an abstract model of a
14、process consisting of boxes, arrows and cloudsBad HypothesesConsulting Skills WorkshopDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISHow to find a good hypothesisThere are proven processes to generate hypotheses:Talk to lots of people about the core problemHave a brainstorming case team meetingTaguchi method ask “5 Whys Start
15、 with general validity checks for your hypotheses:Assume perfect rationality how ought the business system to behave?Look for analogies (other industries or problems)Imagine that you had perfect information what would the ideal analysis look like?Try Lateral Thinking:Think about the problem from a d
16、ifferent angleConsulting Skills WorkshopDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat if your hypothesis is proven wrong?You Win!Hypothesis-driven thinking requires frequent reviews of the prevailing and current hypotheses:Do we still think they are right?Are we making progress towards disproving them?Are they at the right level of generality/predictiveness?Having proven a hypothesis wrong means you have made a big step towards answering your question!“A wise man sometimes changes his mind, but a fool never.-Arabic ProverbConsulting Skills WorkshopSummaryTo be developed thank you!
