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1、SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Institutewww.samiconsulting.co.ukrobust decisions in uncertain timesScenario PlanningSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukAgendaPrinciplesGenerating scenariosA scenario projectOrganising a scenar
2、io workshopSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukPredicting the futureNiels Bohrsaid“Predictingisverydifficult,especiallyifitsaboutthefuture.” A mayor in early twentieth century Pennsylvania “Icanforeseethedaywhentherewillbeoneofthes
3、e(atelephone)ineverytown” Conservative political thinker Edmund Burke “Youcanneverplanthefuturebythepast” SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukForecasting the futureToday Trends RangeOfUncertaintiesTiming ?Single point forecastSAMI
4、ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.uk The “ consumersole”, an information console that could be in use inthe home by the end of the centurySource: Institute for Scientific Information, 1980 Predicting technology futuresSAMI ConsultingSt
5、Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukPredicting oil pricesSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukJapan Foresight ReviewForesight started in Japan early 50sReview of accuracy after 25 y
6、earsFound that accuracy better if for instance:Future of chemistryConsulted chemists plus chemical engineers, physicists, biologists, economist, mathematiciansProblems of shared assumptions not made explicitThinking influenced by todays agendaNow received wisdom to look wide for a range of weak sign
7、als as well as extrapolate current trendsLessons on ForecastingSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukWhy forecasts missGovernments less effectivePeople more sensibleTechnologypush doesntProgress?SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management I
8、nstituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukScenariosScenarios are “an internally consistent view of what the future might be”, “not a forecast but one possible future outcome”ProfessorMichaelPorter,HarvardBusinessSchoolForecasts ScenariosForecasts and ScenariosSAMI Consulting
9、St Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukMemories of the FutureIngvar, a neurobiologist found that the human brain is constantly attempting to explore options for the future even while we are asleepThese “memories of the future” act as a filter to ext
10、raneous signals. one role for models is to provide a context for these explorationsScenarios provide several alternative model futures for the brain to explore increases the ability of the brain to perceive,speeds the response. Scenarios can increase the range of “what we have experienced” and“what
11、is relevant to our future”. SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukScenarios and decisionsHorizon Scenarios Strategy Decision ImplementationScanningmakerSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain times
12、www.samiconsulting.co.ukAgendaPrinciplesGenerating scenariosA scenario projectOrganising a scenario workshopSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukGenerating scenariosWhy? Should we use scenario planningPublic sector, private sectorWh
13、en? Are they useful & when notSingle dominant factorConnection to decisions/implementationWho? Should take partInsiders, outsidersWhat? Results might we expectdecisionsHow? Do we generate scenarios5 stepsSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsult
14、ing.co.ukWhy use scenarios?Public sectorECs High Level Expert Group on Converging TechnologiesCreate common languageHealth & Safety ExecutiveGet ahead of public attitudesPrivate sectorShell, Erste Allgemeine VersicherungAnticipate geopolitical futuresArup, BPTest strategic plan against possible futu
15、resRoche, BAE SystemsDevelop Corporate Social Responsibility policies for different African countries/ exposure to the US SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukWhen are scenarios useful?To create common languageDo not start a scenari
16、os project ifThere is no decision process in place to take actionsWhen the industry is being affected by a single overwhelming factorWhen the organisation is in panic modeDo use scenariosTo create models which can then be recognisedTo anticipate changeSo that plans are in place when they happenTo te
17、st strategic plans for branching/decision pointsSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukWho should take part?Core teamNeed a team member who has completed a scenario projectLinks to decision makers e.g Board sponsorThree to six members
18、Balance insiders e.g long time employees outsiders e.g new hires, consultantsGet data & insights from web, insiders, competition, regulators etcCore team often work part-time over several monthsVery mentally tiring!SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.
19、samiconsulting.co.ukHow many scenarios?Four scenarios creativity or visionEC, HLEGThree scenarios danger is “middle one is the forecast”Erste Allgemeine Versicherung, Roche, BAE SystemsTwo scenarios qualitative differencesShell, ArupMore than four difficult for people to see the differencesAn import
20、ant aspect of scenarios is communicationSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukWhat results to expectA set of scenariosUse of STEEP (societal, technological, political, environmental, economic) data to set contextUse of qualitatively
21、different worlds within this contextScenarios described depending on audienceComparison tables for Strategic PlannersNarrative, story as told by a character in the future for wider useVideo, actors for public engagementOrganisation alerted to early indicators of scenariosBetter decision makingSAMI C
22、onsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukWorkshops & projectsWorkshops to generate scenariosMarketing, based on extensive research before handManagement development, to benefit participants and create shared language results not usedAfter Mer
23、ger or Acquisition, workshop to explore shared assumptionsWorkshops using pre-built scenarios, to test or develop strategyProjects to generate and use scenariosStrategic decision makingwith time to interview sources of data and insight, develop ideas over a periodengage with Board, write up in detai
24、l for Strategic Planners, create storylines and video for wider use.SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukAgendaPrinciplesGenerating scenariosA scenario projectOrganising a scenario workshopSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instit
25、uterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.uk Project to generate scenariosStartup:QuestionScopeTeamBudgetTimescaleReportingInformationExchange LaunchStep 1Month 1Step 2Months 2-4Step 3Month 5Step 4Month 6Step 5Month 7Diagnosis:InterviewsAnalysisSynthesisResearchFeedbackIssues (expe
26、rt)Workshops:ExternalMarketInternalScenarioWorkshop:TrendsUncertaintiesClustersNamesStorylinesTimelinesOptions:Triage“just do it”More workNoAction planFeedbackTeam celebrateSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukHealth and Safety Exec
27、utiveHealth & Safety Executive (HSE) employees about 20,000 peopleResponsible for setting standards for health and safety at workManages high risk industries directly (eg oil rigs)Regulates local government enforcement of other industriesHealth & Safety Laboratories had a team of 6 people doing hori
28、zon scanningHorizon scanning team did not find it easy to communicate with the BoardWorked with experienced consultants SAMI and Infinite Futures to develop scenarios Presented scenarios at HSE conferenceUse scenarios to drive new thinking about the role of the Health and Safety ExecutiveSAMI Consul
29、tingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 1:StartupQuestion: What is the shape of society and government by 2020 and what effect will this have on health and safety at work?Scope: UK, 2020Team: HSL horizon scanning team (6), Wendy Schultz (Inf
30、inite Futures), Gill Ringland, Adrian Davies, Martin DuckworthBudget: 50,000 ( for consultants)Timescale: May 2006 to December 2006Reporting: HSE sponsor, through to BoardInformation Exchange: Used a software tool called basecamp to share informationLaunch: May 2006SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Manageme
31、nt Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 2: diagnosisInterviews25 interviews, staffed by 1 HSL + 1 consultantAnalysisCaptured in a workbook,Takes each thought from each interview and categorizes it as external, competition, internale.g globalisation external factor
32、SynthesisDecide on most important factors: eg, work/life balance, attitude to risk (26 issues)Also events (eg Olympics 2012) which will change attitudesResearchHSL team established data to support (or otherwise) all 26 major issuesFeedbackShort paper to the Board on progressSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews
33、 Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 3: Consult expertsHSL team researched all 26 major issuesSome could be foreacst and could be built into the scenarioseg increase in disruptive technologieseg increase in average age in the UK (even allowing for immi
34、gration)Others were open questionseg attitudes to privacy and riskeg culture dependency or self relianceeg effect of globalisation on UKPack for scenarios workshop included a paragraph on each of the issues, plus a short analysis of possible eventsSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust
35、 decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 4: Scenario WorkshopInviteesHSE wanted to invite influencers from across HSEAlso some outsidersTotal of 28 people so did most of working in 4 syndicates of 7 to give participants air timeEvent duration 2 days, all had dinner together over-nig
36、htKick-off and introduction to process Board sponsor, also took part throughoutHeld at HSEs new conference facilities in Bootle, LancashireEmphasised need for good room dynamics, heat & light, flip charts, water in the rooms, etc SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in unce
37、rtain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukScenario Workshop, Day One Syndicates Full Group Scenario matrixScenarios built from Uncertainties in this box plus trends (forecastable)ForecastableYou set up a Forecasting unit totrack these itemsImportantLess importantUncertainReview process Present major issues
38、 list (26)Refine list to 15LunchAgree list of 15Discuss issues,Sort on matrix Discuss sorted issues;Agree scenario cross e.g.Good economyBad economySocial tensionSocial cohesionSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 4: scenario m
39、atrixScenarios are built from Uncertainties in this box plus trends (forecastable)ForecastableYou set up a Forecasting unit totrack these trendsImportantLess importantUncertainSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 4:Scenario cro
40、ssPersonal responsibility, pro-active adoption of technology, management of riskBlame culture, resistance to new technology, rejection of riskDecreased UK competitivenessIncreased UK competitivenessSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co
41、.ukScenario Workshop, Day Two Syndicates Full GroupReview processScenario cross:Name the scenarios Review HSE Hot Topics - scan data LunchFleshing out the scenarios: (scan data, early indicators, timelines) Tell the storiesEndBig issues for health & safety in each scenarioWrap-up: whats nexte.g.,Goo
42、d economyBad economySocial tensionSocial cohesionName?Name?Name?Name?SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 4: naming the scenariosWorked in pairs to brainstorm nameseach pair chose a scenario to namevoting on namesVirtue of Nece
43、ssityDigital Rose GardenTough ChoicesBoom and BlameSyndicates to develop storylines for their scenarioEarly indicatorsTrigger eventsHeroes & villainsTypical front page in 2020SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 4: winding up t
44、he workshopSyndicates presented scenario storylinesUsing Google imagesSound trackSyndicates very competitive!In plenary, brainstormed the big issues for the organisation in each scenarioAll scenarios implied changesBrief from Board sponsor on next stepsConference for 120 key influencersWind-tunnelli
45、ng workshopBoard paperUsed electronic feedback form for the event.SAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukStep 5: OptionsConference participants asked to brainstorm of options what should the HSE do?Common options across all scenarios
46、e gEducating next generation of stakeholders re: emerging risks, risk management - and communicationContingent options depending on the scenario egDistinguish more clearly between the roles of enforcer and advisor two brands, if not two organisations (Digital Rose Garden)With SMEs, fiscal incentives
47、 rather than sanctions - changing behaviour (Virtue of Necessity)One day wind-tunnelling workshopTest the options developed at the conference against the scenarios Triage into Just do it, Research, BinSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting
48、.co.ukWind Tunnelling ExamplePolicy Option10 year DestinationVirtue ofNecessityDigital RoseGardenBoomBlameToughChoicesFocus efforts on enforcement Become an EnforcementOrganisationEqual or more weight to roles of advisor / educator than to guardian / enforcerSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Inst
49、ituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukTriageShort-termAction10 y DestinationPreparatoryActivityScanningActivity10 y DestinationContingencyPlanning?Low-costPlanning10 y DestinationResearchProgramme?10 y DestinationReviseScenariosFocusedScanningJust Do ItMixedContingentUnclas
50、sifiableSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decisions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukNext steps at HSEActions from the Wind-tunnelling workshop in the Board paper for FebruaryJust Do It actions eg Education in riskResearch on eg With SMEs, fiscal incentives rather than sa
51、nctions - changing behaviour what is experience elsewhere?Business plan for developing role as adviser by consultancy outside the UKWider programme inside HSE & its local government partners rolling out the scenarios to promote culture changeSAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Instituterobust decis
52、ions in uncertain timeswww.samiconsulting.co.ukSummaryPrinciples of scenario thinkingForecastsDecision making Generating scenariosWhy? When? Who? What? How many?How? A scenario project step by stepGathering the source informationOrganising a scenario workshopUsing the scenarios to set strategySAMI ConsultingSt Andrews Management Institutewww.samiconsulting.co.ukrobust decisions in uncertain timesAfter the break and case study lecture we will do a group exercise based on organisations chosen by the class, using the 26 issues from the Health & Safety Executive and creating scenarios for 2020.
