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1、The dynamics of cross-border residence from Hong Kong to Mainland China Prof. Eddie Hui, Prof. Francis Wong, Prof. S.M. Li & Mr. K.H. Yu The Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityIntl Conference on Chinas Urban Land and Housing in the 21st Century, Hong Kong Baptist University, 13-15 Dec 20071Introduction
2、The position of Hong Kong as a gateway to China has changed ever since the Chinese Mainland adopted the Open Door Policy in 1978. Due to an entirely different economic/political system, Hong Kong has been the gateway for foreigners to do business with China.More than 200,000 Hong Kong residents were
3、 working across the border (CSD, 2003), and over 5 million cross-boundary passenger trips had been recorded during a 2-week survey in November 2003 (Planning Department, 2004). 2345Problem StatementProblems arise as policy makers are not able to respond to this potential population movement without
4、acknowledging its possible implications, such as:How would different sections of the populace value possible relocation to the Mainland, the place with the same ethnic background while displaying vast differences in other aspects such as cultural, legal, political and economic disparities? Would fac
5、tors, such as the improved local economy and the anticipated aging population, change the dynamics of cross-border residential movements? 6ObjectivesThe two objectives of this research are:To explore the types of individuals in Hong Kong who are most likely to consider cross-border residence in the
6、near future.To have a more thorough investigation on both the location and tenure preferences of those who have stated their intentions to reside in the Mainland in the future, subject to various attributes.7Literature Review: Economic FactorsEconomic incentives are generally perceived to be the maj
7、or contributing factors in ones decision-making process with regard to relocation (Spitze, 1984; Glick, 1993).The major economic concerns relating to home-moving decisions are employment opportunities in the host areas, disparities in living cost and income.8Literature Review: Employment Opportuniti
8、esAs a job change implies a change in income, a change in employment often leads to household relocation (Clark & Onaka, 1983). Orr (1975) states that low income households were more sensitive to employment opportunities than higher income households. Reibstein (1992) points out that job-related cir
9、cumstances may actually force people to move, though it is generally assumed that all families would prefer not to spend time and money traveling (Goodman, 1976).9Literature Review: Living Cost The results of Berger and Bloomquists (1992) study suggest that the location of where migrants relocate to
10、 is largely determined by housing price differences between metropolitan areas. This is applicable to the phenomenon of cross-border residence since there is quite a difference between the prices of properties in Hong Kong and in the Mainland (Li, 2002). 10Literature Review: IncomeConventional wisdo
11、m indicates that mobility declines with income (Pickvance, 1973; Kain and Quinley, 1975). However, an inverted U-shape has been reported as well in this regard (Brown and Kain, 1972; Weinberg, 1975). Chiu and Ho (2005) comment that higher-income households are less likely to relocate from a higher t
12、o a lower living standard area, while lower-income households can enjoy lower living cost from relocation without sacrificing too much quality or variety of consumer goods. 11Literature Review: Non-economic Factors (Family Life Cycle)Correlations between mobility rate and household characteristics w
13、ere documented in previous studies (Quigley & Weinberg, 1977). In general, mobility and age are inversely related (Clark & Onaka, 1983). Meanwhile, a rather ambiguous picture in the influence of both household size (Rossi, 1955; Maisel,1966; Brown and Kain, 1972; Weinberg,1975) and children (Long, 1
14、972; Kain and Quinley, 1975; Goodman, 1976; Hui and Lam, 2000) on mobility behaviours has been revealed. 12Literature Review: Non-economic Factors (Housing Tenure)It has been almost a consensus in housing studies that renters are more mobile than home owners (see Quigley & Weinberg, 1977). Dispariti
15、es in the context of housing policies, in addition to ones wealth levels and tenure structure, differentiates residential mobility behaviours (Strassman, 1991; Dieleman, 2001). 13Methodology This study presents a two-stage structure on exploring the stated preferences of Hong Kong citizens intereste
16、d in moving to the Mainland in the next 10 years. 1)How different household and economic-related attributes influence the likelihood of potential cross-border residential decision. 2)The location and tenure preferences of those people. Three logistic regression models are deployed to investigate the
17、 three dimensions of housing decisions of potential cross-border residents, grounded on the belief that individuals maximize their utility level, subject to a budget constraint. 14DataThe Data were extracted from a survey conducted by the Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong in 2005 concern
18、ing the aspirations and experience of taking up residence in the Chinese Mainland. Some 11,100 households were randomly selected and more than 28,000 individuals over the age of 18 were interviewed. 15VariableDescriptionsPUBLICA dummy variable. 1 represents an individual who currently lives in the p
19、ublic housing sector, 0 otherwise.OWNERSA dummy variable. 1 represents an individual who lives in Hong Kong as an owner, 0 otherwise. AGE2035A dummy variable. 1 represents an individual who is within 20 to 35 years old, 0 otherwise.AGE55UPA dummy variable. 1 represents an individual who is 55 years
20、old or above, 0 otherwise.HIGHINCOMEA dummy variable. 1 represents an individual having a monthly household income of $40,000 or higher, 0 otherwise.LOWINCOMEA dummy variable. 1 represents an individual having a monthly household income of $10,000 or less, 0 otherwise.HSIZEHousehold size (counting o
21、nly those who are aged 10 and over and excluding domestic helpers)SEXA dummy variable. 1 represents a male, 0 female.FREQVISITSFrequency of Visits in the Mainland in the past 12 monthsDURSTAYUsual duration of stay in the Mainland (in days) Table 1: Descriptions of variables selected for the study16T
22、he results from the logistic regression models are presented in Table 2 below.VariableStage 1: On general preference of Cross-border residence (1=Intend to move to the Mainland, 0=No intentions to move)Stage 2a: On the location preferences of those who have stated their intentions in cross-border re
23、sidence. (1=Guangdong Province, 0=Other areas in the Mainland)Stage 2b: On the tenure preferences of those who have stated their intentions in cross-border residence. (1=Owners, 0=Renters)PUBLIC-0.737*1.259*0.565OWNERS-0.817* -0.4721.398*AGE2035-1.301* -0.107-0.386AGE55UP0.365*0.7101.263*HIGHINCOME-
24、0.1510.0672.652*LOWINCOME-1.290*1.2070.071HSIZE-0.967*-0.139*0.437*SEX-0.494*0.140-0.498FREQVISITS0.0040.033*-0.005DURSTAY0.014*-0.015-0.043*Table 2: Logistic regression model results Note: * significant at 1%; * significant at 5%; * significant at 10%17Results: On General Cross-border Residential P
25、ropensities Public sector residents, property owners, and males are less likely to become cross-border residents, consistent with the general knowledge from the previous mobility literature.On the other hand, individuals between 20 and 35 years old have the lowest possibility of relocation to the Ma
26、inland. Meanwhile, senior persons aged 55 or above view cross-border residence as a preferable option to staying in Hong Kong. Both observations are different from conventional mobility literature. 18Results: On General Cross-border Residential Propensities (Contd)The higher-income group (earning mo
27、re than $40,000 a month) has a negative, yet insignificant effect on cross-border mobility tendencies. Those in the lower-income group (less than $10,000 a month) has a significant, negative impact in this regard. This finding in a sense leans towards the inverted U-shape conclusion by Brown and Kai
28、n (1972) and Weinberg (1975) about mobility with income.19Results: On General Cross-border Residential Propensities (Contd)Larger households do not view cross-border residential mobility a preferable option, which leans towards the school of thought proposed by Brown and Kain (1972) and Maisel (1966
29、). The frequency of visits to the Mainland does not have a significant relationship with cross-border residence Ones duration of stay in the Mainland has a significant and positive impact on cross-border residential mobility. 20Results: On Location Preferences of Potential MoversRelatively lower cos
30、t incurred in travel between Hong Kong and the Guangdong Province appears to be a key concern of moving, especially among public sector residents and those in larger households. Also, the more frequent an individual visits the Mainland in the preceding 12 months, somewhere in the Guangdong Province
31、is preferred. 21Results: On Tenure Preferences of Potential MoversLiving in owned housing is preferable among older citizens in Hong Kong once they relocate across the border. Higher-income individuals, along with homeowners in Hong Kong, would also prefer owned housing as accommodation when they mo
32、ve to the Mainland. Larger households are more likely to be homeowners in the Mainland. 22Conclusion & ImplicationsGiven that cross-border residence between Hong Kong and Mainland China is a relatively new topic and the heterogeneous structures between Hong Kong and the Mainland is something not pre
33、sent in conventional residential mobility studies, this paper provides some insights that have not been provided by conventional studies or government surveys. It offers some possible directions to look at residential mobility between places which share similar, but not identical, features as the cr
34、oss-border residence between Hong Kong and Mainland China. 23Conclusions & Implications (Contd)The first policy implication is that current institutional measures, particularly regarding the eligibility of social welfare/services, somewhat keep older people from residing in the Mainland permanently
35、as homeowners. The second implication lies in the possibility that public rental housing (PRH) tenants, with higher propensities than those in public ownership housing, are able to reside across the boundary as renters while occupying their PRH flat in Hong Kong, without violating the decree governi
36、ng the asset ceiling on the eligibility for PRH. 24RecommendationsThe government could revise the current arrangements on social welfare/service provisions, which helps reduce the cost involved in cross-border residence thus enhancing the living conditions of these citizens.25Acknowledgement:This study is funded by the Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong (Project No. PolyU5110/03E). 26Q & A27
