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1、經濟、產業與高階人才薛 琦台灣金融研訓院院長社團法人中華民國中小企業協會 2007年5月24日1 I. 新世紀產業發展大趨勢II.就業之道III.結語大 綱 2噸世紀(The Tonne Age) 工業革命 1950s 鋼鐵、造船、紡織機、建築公斤世紀(The Kilo Age) 1960-1970s 汽車、家電公克世紀(The Gram Age) 1970s - 1980s 微電子、機器人無重量世紀(The Vacuum Age) 1990s- 資訊科技人類歷史上生產科技之演變Source: Slightly revised from Jean-Pierre Lehmann,“The Fut
2、ure of the Asia Pacific Economies: Dynamism of Trade and Investment” presented at APEC Economic Committee Symposium The Future of Asia Pacific Economies, December 6 1999, Tokyo.3通道 1.分行 2.電話銀行 3. 4.（專屬）銀行 5.網際網路銀行成本交易 1.07 0.54 0.27 0.015 0.010Source: Booz Allen & Hamilton research (1996/North Ameri
3、can)服務通道趨勢銀行處理成本Source: Booz Allen & Hamilton research (1996/North American) 484-88 89-93 94-9884-88 89-93 94-9884-88 89-93 94-98商品貿易量成長率(%)全球產出成長率(%)商品貿易量成長全球產出成長(倍數）全球化趨勢(1984-98)全球化趨勢下，貿易障礙減少，全球經濟活動與貿易互動關係日益緊密。5區 域 化 趨 勢東亞經濟區域內貿易盛行，我國對外貿易亞太化。6了解就業市場7美、日、台失業率1991-2005美國台灣日本%資料來源:1.主計處編印國民經濟動向統計季報，
4、各期。 2.IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues.5.14.44.1台灣失業率於2000年後明顯跳升。8各國失業率變動 (1991-2004)%英國荷蘭愛爾蘭資料來源:1. IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues.2.ILO, International Labor Statistics, various issues. 4.84.64.5歐洲三國勞動市場表現優越。9各 國 失 業 率（2002）%資料來源:行政院經建會，國際經濟動態指標，第647號（91年11月）。10勞 動 參 與 率（200
5、2） %資料來源:主計處編印國民經濟動向統計季報，各期。11經濟活動人口比例（19992000）%資料來源:1.Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, R.O.C., Monthly Bulletin of Manpower Statistics, Taiwan Area, R.O.C., March 2000. 2.International Labor Office, Yearbook of Labour Statistics, Table 1A, 1999. 12生產力成長與行政管制之關係(1980-90 199
6、0-98)行政管制(Administrative regulation)指數資料來源: Andrea Bassanini, Stefano Scarpetta and Ignazio Visco, “Knowledge, Technology and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence from OECD Countries,” OECD Economic Department Working Papers No. 259, October 2000.生產力成長率變動13Productivity Growth Change v.s. Employment Prot
7、ection Legislation, between 1980-90 and 1990-98Indicator of employment protection legislationDifference in Productivity growth rates Source: Andrea Bassanini, Stefano Scarpetta and Ignazio Visco, “Knowledge, Technology and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence from OECD Countries,” OECD Economic Departme
8、nt Working Papers No. 259, October 2000.Correlation coefficient -0.5714面對一個事實15Average CEO to Average Worker Pay Ratio, 1990-2005資料來源：朱敬一，陳一珊，全球化浪潮下的資源分配趨勢，面對公與義全球化下 的發展與分配論文集，時報文教基金會，2007年5月。199095平均值為160，19962005平均值為400。16台灣五等所得分配之變化 19952005YearLowest fifthSecond fifthThird fifthFourth fifthHighe
9、st fifthRatio19957.3012.9617.3723.3838.995.3419967.2313.0017.5023.3838.895.3819977.2412.9117.4623.2539.145.4119987.1212.8417.5323.2439.265.5119997.1312.9117.5123.2139.245.5020007.0712.8217.4723.4139.235.5520016.4312.0817.0423.3341.116.3920026.6712.3016.9922.9541.096.1620036.7212.3716.9123.1740.836.0
10、720046.6712.4617.4123.2540.216.0320056.6612.4317.4223.3240.176.04資料來源：行政院主計處。17如何快樂工作WMPL=工資 價格（商品，勞務）勞動邊際產出 勞動在生產中創造的邊際產值，或對公司 收益的邊際貢獻，即財務績效如何創造個人價值，提升或，即提高商品勞務品質，或個人生產力生產力與工 資18如何快樂工作績效與報酬相當 工作一定保得住，安心享受你的工作吧！績效高於報酬 可以跟老闆談加薪，或準備跳槽報酬不大於績效 準備捲鋪蓋，或公司會倒績效與報酬19How to be a rich man /CEO?To have a rich f
11、ather. Too bad, you can not choose your father.To imitate a rich man. Too bad, you are still short of something.To move faster. The world is flat. Really?2021Now You are a CEO22Let A.Smith Answer the Question“the eye is larger than the belly, The capacity of his stomach ( the land lord )bears no pro
12、portion to the immensity of his desires, and will receive no more than that of the meanest peasant.”23Let A.Smith Answer the Question“In what constitutes the real happiness of human life, they are in no respect inferiour to those who would seem so much above them. In ease of body and peace of mind,
13、all the different ranks of life are nearly upon a level, and the beggar, who suns himself by the side of the highway, possesses that security which kings are fighting for.”24 Part 1 財富 Wealthq窮人之子的寓言:(在追求名利之後），如今他已走到生命的終點，他的身體受到勞苦與病痛的磨損，心總因為憶起過去的千般傷害與失望，而感到懊惱。註4 名利不過是瑣碎的小裝飾品，不會強過孩子的百寶箱。註4：斯密絕妙的寓言窮人之子見於TMS, IV.I.8 181。25
