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1、4440363228242016Deutsche BankMarkets ResearchRatingHoldGlobal Emerging MarketsBrazilCompanyPetrobrasDate27 October 2012ResultsOil & GasPrice at 26 Oct 2012 (USD)Target price22.4026.00ReutersPBR.NBloombergPBR UNExchange TickerNYSPBR52-week range32.12 - 17.643Q results: QoQ improvement but stillbelow
2、DBe and consensus3Q results: QoQ improvement but still below DBe and consensusWe expect a negative market reaction to Petrobras3Q results. Not so muchbecause of the miss versus our and consensus expectations but mainlybecause the negative trends seen in the quarter are likely to recur goingforward:
3、(1) lower domestic oil output although September should be thetrough level in 2012, (2) refinery losses and (3) higher costs. Despite in linesales, EBITDA was 5% below our estimates while EPADR of $0.42 was wellbelow our expectations. Main positive triggers in the short term are: (1) priceincrease a
4、nd to a lesser extent, (2) production recovery. Reiterate Hold.Cost increases in 3Q. More details on the cost reduction program in DecemberWhile costs increased in 3Q, some of them should subside in upcomingquarters such as lifting and refining costs, reflecting higher maintenance andlower productio
5、n. Also, the company reported a rise in labor costs due to theannual wage increase. The company has recently announced the PROCOPMarcus SequeiraResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-Luiz FonsecaResearch Analyst(+55) 11 2113-Price/price relative(cost cut program) that should be detailed in Dec12 and implement
6、ed in Jan13.10/104/1110/114/12E&P: below expectation due to lower production and higher costsPetrobrasBOVESPA (Rebased)The E&P segment reported EBITDA of R$19.6bn, 13% below DBe. Differencesversus our estimates came from: (1) higher exploration costs, (2) lower thanexpected domestic oil production,
7、(3) higher lifting costs, and (4) higherdiscount to intl crudes. Outlook for the E&P segment should remainPerformance (%)AbsoluteBOVESPA1m-3.1-5.33m14.66.112m-10.90.2challenging until late 2013 when production is expected to start recovering.Refining: still deep in the red but better than expected d
8、ue to lower importsNegative EBITDA of R$7.4bn was better than our negative EBITDA estimate ofR$9.4bn. Main differences versus our estimates were: (1) lower refinedproducts imports, (2) slightly lower sales of refined products, (3) increasedrefinery productivity. Those items were offset by: (1) high
9、gap of domesticprices versus import parity = subsidies, (2) lower refined products exports, (3)lower average realization prices, and (4) higher net import position. Outlook forRefining depends on the governments decision to end price subsidies. Therecent close of price gap in gasoline is not expecte
10、d to remain in 2013.Balance sheet and cash flowPetrobras net debt/net equity ratio remained stable at 28% (versus 28.2% in2Q12 but increased from 21.7% in 3Q11). During the quarter, Petrobrascapexreached R$19.8bn versus operating cash flow of R$16.4bn. YTD capex reachedR$55.9bn. Valuation: DCF based
11、 PT of $26. Upside risks: increased productionand prices; downside risk: more government interference. See page 8.Forecasts And RatiosYear End Dec 31P/E (x)EV/EBITDA (x)Dividend yield (%)2010A12.38.62.22011A10.97.52.92012E11.47.73.62013E8.36.94.22014E7.86.24.5Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company
12、 data_Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seek
13、s to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURE
14、S ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.27 October 2012Oil & GasPetrobrasPetrobras 3Q12 reviewQoQ improvement but still below DBe and consensus. Marginsdeteriorate furtherReported net revenues of R$73.8bn came in line with our forecasts, but consolidatedEBITDA of R
15、$14.4bn came in 5% short of expectations (-14%YoY but +36%QoQ) andconsensus of R$15.8bn. Finally, Petrobras net income of R$5.6bn (EPADR of $0.42)came in well below our R$7.5bn estimate due to lower operating results, higherfinancial and FX expenses and higher tax rate.At a segment level, E&P operat
16、ing results were negatively impacted by lowerproduction, lower average realization prices and higher costs (although much improvedQoQ). Meanwhile, losses in the refining business came in lower than estimatedreflecting lower imports.Figure 1: Petrobras 3Q12 income statement3Q12A(R$ mn)E&PRefiningGas
17、& EnergyInternationalDistributionEliminationsNet salesCOGSGross Profit3Q12A35,38359,7466,0779,25820,293(56,964)73,79355,70718,0863Q12E37,42562,4815,5148,01720,278(60,306)73,40854,75718,6513Q11A30,79151,5174,6817,22719,312(49,349)64,17943,82020,3592Q12A36,00855,2425,5258,52618,642(55,896)68,04752,032
18、16,0153Q12E-5%-4%10%15%0%-6%1%2%-3%3Q11A15%16%30%28%5%15%15%27%-11%2Q12A-2%8%10%9%9%2%8%7%13%Gross margin24.5%25.4%31.7%23.5%Exploration expensesSG&A expensesR&D expensesTaxesOtherOperating expensesOperating profit1,2925,0735861712,3649,4868,6001,0655,0984491802,0818,8749,7787854,6206711691,7928,037
19、12,3223,4164,8454311701,87110,7335,28221%0%30%-5%14%7%-12%65%10%-13%1%32%18%-30%-62%5%36%1%26%-12%63%Operating margin11.7%13.3%19.2%7.8%EBITDA14,37515,16716,67710,599-5%-14%36%EBITDA Margin19.5%20.7%26.0%15.6%Net interest resultsNet FX gain / (loss)Equity incomePre-tax profitTaxesMinority InterestNe
20、t earnings(114)(455)1928,223(2,588)(68)5,567466(237)(300)9,707(2,524)3007,4831,295(6,579)(472)6,566(1,292)1,0626,336766(7,173)(426)(1,551)(320)525(1,346)-124%92%-164%-15%3%-123%-26%-109%-93%-141%25%100%-106%-12%-115%-94%-145%nm709%-113%nmEPSEPADR (US$)0.430.420.570.570.490.59(0.10)(0.11)Source: Deut
21、sche Bank and company reportsPage 2Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.27 October 2012Oil & GasPetrobrasE&P: pressured by lower production and prices, higher liftingcostsThe E&P segment reported EBITDA of R$19.6bn, 13% below our R$22.7bn estimate(+7%YoY and 1%QoQ). Nonetheless, EBITDA margin of 55% improve
22、d sequentially(54% in 2Q12) but dropped versus 60% in 3Q11.The main items affecting the E&P performance during the quarter were:(-) higher exploration expenses of R$1.1bn versus our R$936mn estimate (+20%),R$630mn in 3Q11, but much lower than the R$3.3bn reported in 2Q12 due to lowerwrite-off of dry
23、 and sub commercial wells seen last quarter. According to the company,higher maintenance and well intervention needed in the period resulted in the pickup inexploration costs. However, government take of US$18.76/bbl was lower than ourforecast of US$19.21/bbl, due to lower production.(-) lower than
24、expected domestic oil production: Petrobras reported very weakdomestic oil production figures during the month of September of 1.844mn bpd (-4%MoM) which was the weakest level since Nov08. That led production during thequarter to average 1.904mn bpd, 2% lower versus our expectations (-4%YoY and -3%Q
25、oQ). The 66tbpd drop QoQ reflected: (1) higher maintenance stoppages (-25tbpd)and (2) natural decline of mature fields (-57tbpd). Also the loss of production from theFrade field, closed since early this year, contributed to 18tbpd lower volumes. Partiallyoffsetting lower production were: (1) higher
26、production from the pre-salt Lula field(+9tbpd) we note production in Lula had to be suspended for a few days duringSeptember due to issues in the CO2 compressors, (2) start of production at Baleia Azulfield (+6tbpd) and (3) lower operational losses (+17tbpd), effect of the PROEF.(-) higher lifting
27、costs of US$15.42/bbl versus our estimates of US$13.62/bbl (+13%) lifting costs rose 15% both YoY and QoQ. The increase reflects higher maintenance andwell intervention in the Marlim and Albacora fields, higher personnel costs and lowerproduction. Lifting costs were helped by the Real weakness durin
28、g the quarter.(-) higher than expected discount to international crudes: During 3Q12, the discount ofPetrobras crude to intl benchmarks increased to US$8.10/bbl from US$3.90/bbl in2Q12 but dropped versus US$10.60/bbl in 3Q11. That led to lower average realizationprices of US$108.80/bbl versus our es
29、timates of US$105.90/bbl.Outlook for the remaining of 2012 and 2013 is discouragingWe dont expect production to improve significantly in the short term, although the endof maintenance shutdowns should help domestic oil production levels. For 2013, thecompany expects to maintain a flat output until l
30、ate in the year, when new units andimproved efficiency in the Campos basin should start to show results.Petrobras stated the PROEF program already showed some progress since it wasimplemented, but those results are still minimal for a company the size of Petrobras.According to the company, efforts h
31、elped on the recovery of 17tbpd. Nonetheless, webelieve that any significant improvements from the program should only materialize inthe coming years. Petrobras should launch the PROEF Unidade Operacional Rio inNovember with the same objectives of the PROEF Unidade Operacional Campos.Deutsche Bank S
32、ecurities Inc.Page 327 October 2012Oil & GasPetrobrasFigure 2: Petrobras: upstream highlights3Q12A(US$)Crude Brent $/bblCrude Oil ProductionDomesticInternationalNatural Gas ProductionDomesticInternationalTotal ProductionAverage Crude Realized Price ($/bbl)Average Discount to Brent ($/bbl)Lifting Cos
33、t - BrazilGovernment takeTotal lifting costs3Q12A109.902,0461,904142471377942,517101.80-8.1015.4218.7634.183Q12E109.902,0961,950146462363992,558105.90-4.0013.6219.2132.833Q11A113.462,1081,9781304563561002,564102.86-10.6013.3717.8831.252Q12A108.192,1131,970143459362972,572104.29-3.9013.4018.9132.313Q
34、12E0%-2%-2%-3%2%4%-5%-2%-4%103%13%-2%4%3Q11A-3%-3%-4%9%3%6%-6%-2%-1%-24%15%5%9%2Q12A2%-3%-3%-1%3%4%-3%-2%-2%108%15%-1%6%Source: Deutsche Bank and company reportsRefining: price increases only reduced the bleeding, importsubsidies have to end.The refining segment reported an EBITDA loss of R$7.4bn du
35、ring the quarter, whichcame in better than our estimate of a loss of R$9.4bn. The main difference versus ourestimates was lower than expected refined products imports.The main items affecting the refining segment during the quarter were:(+) lower refined products imports of 437mn bbl versus our esti
36、mates of 514mn bbl,reflecting lower diesel imports offset by higher gasoline imports.(+) slightly lower sales of refined products versus expectations of 238mn bbl (-1%).Demand, however grew by 4% both YoY and QoQ. We believe lower demand ispositive for Petrobras as it results in lower import needs w
37、hich are subsidized by thecompany. In fact, imports were also lower than expected, especially of diesel due tohigher domestic production.(+) increased refinery productivity: during the quarter, capacity utilization ratioincreased to 98% (from 96% in 2Q12 and 93% in 3Q11), while utilization of domest
38、iccrude remained stable at 82% both YoY and QoQ. Average throughput of 1.974mn bpdalso rose sequentially and versus last years. This resulted mainly in higher dieselvolumes produced in the period.(-) lower prices versus import parity, resulting in subsidy of imported gasoline anddiesel, partially of
39、fset by price adjustments in June and July. Please see Figures 4 and5.(-) lower refined products exports due high domestic demand and deliveries expectedfor the next quarter.(-) lower average realization prices of $123.66/bbl versus our estimates of $128.30/bbl.Page 4Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.27
40、October 2012Oil & GasPetrobras(-) higher refining costs of $4.62/bbl versus our estimate of $3.99/bbl and previousquarters of $3.91/bbl due higher personnel costs (effect of annual wage increase) andmaintenance.(-) higher net import position versus our estimates of 271mn bbl, especially due tohigher
41、 crude imports so to improve refinery yields.Figure 3: Petrobras downstream highlights3Q12ADownstream Volumes mn boe/dRefining revenues (US$)Refining gross profit (US$)3Q12A29,462-3,0743Q12E30,811-4,0423Q11A31,482-1,4182Q12A28,185-4,0553Q12E-4%-24%3Q11A-6%117%2Q12A5%-24%Refining gross margin-10.4%-1
42、3.1%-4.5%-14.4%Refined prod sales (MM bbl)Average Realized Price (US$/bbl)Average crude oil cost - domRefining Margin (US$/bbl)Gross Profit/bblCrude oil exportsCrude oil importsRefined product exportsRefined product importsNet export (import) position238$123.66$101.80$21.86-$12.90375385176437(271)24
43、0$128.30$105.90$22.40-$16.83384348223514(256)230$136.85$102.86$33.99-$6.17400316222499(193)229$122.81$104.29$18.52-$17.67351341203383(170)-1%-4%-4%-2%-23%-2%11%-21%-15%6%4%-10%-1%-36%109%-6%22%-21%-12%40%4%1%-2%18%-27%7%13%-13%14%59%Source: Deutsche Bank and company reportsRefining outlook depends o
44、n pricing. Company is reaching fullcapacity.Despite the increase in gasoline and diesel prices, results remained deeply in the red asthe prices of both products remained below import parity during the whole quarterresulting in the subsidy of gasoline and diesel imports.The timing of a new price incr
45、ease is unclear at this point, although some investorsbelieve in an announcement soon. We note that during the past week, gasoline pricesdecreased significantly in the US, while diesel prices remained stable. That resulted indomestic prices converging to import parity while the discount in diesel re
46、mains.Another concerning point in our view is that Petrobrasrefineries have been working atvery high capacity utilization rates, reaching 98% in the quarter, despite a lacklustereconomic environment. We are concerned about the capacity of the company andpossible bottlenecks if consumption continues
47、to increase. Demand destruction in thecase of Brazil is not a bad thing.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page 5Jan-02Apr-02Jul-02Oct-02Jan-03Apr-03Jul-03Oct-03Jan-04Apr-04Jul-04Oct-04Jan-05Apr-05Jul-05Oct-05Jan-06Apr-06Jul-06Oct-06Jan-07Apr-07Jul-07Oct-07Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-09Apr-09Jul-09Oct-09J
48、an-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-02Apr-02Jul-02Oct-02Jan-03Apr-03Jul-03Oct-03Jan-04Apr-04Jul-04Oct-04Jan-05Apr-05Jul-05Oct-05Jan-06Apr-06Jul-06Oct-06Jan-07Apr-07Jul-07Oct-07Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-09Apr-09Jul-09Oct-09Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11J
49、ul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-1227 October 2012Oil & GasPetrobrasFigure 4: Gasoline prices PBR vs. GoM130%115%100%85%70%55%40%25%10%-5%-20%-35%-50%-65%Figure 5: Diesel prices PBR vs. GoM100%85%70%55%40%25%10%-5%-20%-35%-50%Disc PBR to GoMSource: Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg Finance LPAverageDisc P
50、BR to GoMSource: Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg Finance LPAverageOther segments: Intl and Distribution surprise in 3Q12Gas & Energy: EBITDA of R$927mn came in 5% below expectations, but almostdoubled sequentially, reflecting: (1) better average realization prices of natural gas,reflecting better sales
51、mix, (2) lower imports of LNG and natural gas from Bolivia due tolower thermal power generation and (3) lower energy spot prices (PLD -19% QoQ) dueto lower energy dispatch.International: EBITDA of R$1.8bn came in 22% ahead of expectations (+131%YoY and+26%QoQ), reflecting: (1) better sales volumes,
52、(2) lower lifting costs, partially offset by(3) lower natural gas production in Bolivia due to lower demand in Brazil and crude oilproduction in the US due to the impact of the hurricane Isaac.Distribution: EBITDA of R$725mn also came in ahead of our R$585mn estimate, or+24%. Results reflected highe
53、r sales volumes during the quarter of 7%, offset by highpersonnel costs. Market share remained stable sequentially, but dropped to 37.6% from39.2 in 3Q11.Figure 6: Petrobras segment resultsR$ mnRevenuesEBITDANet Income3Q12A 3Q11A 2Q12AYoYQoQ 3Q12A 3Q11A 2Q12AYoYQoQ 3Q12A 3Q11A 2Q12AYoYQoQE&PRefining
54、35,383 30,791 36,00859,746 51,517 55,24215%16%-2% 19,625 18,360 19,3528% (7,404) (3,492) (9,081)7%112%1% 10,809 10,346 10,670-18% (5,652) (3,157) (7,030)4%79%1%-20%Gas & Energy6,0774,6815,52530%10%9272,450475-62%95%3661,35198-73%273%International9,2587,2278,52628%9%1,8498011,467131%26%96224183299% 1
55、059%Distribution20,293 19,312 18,6425%9%72555783630%-13%41331047233%-13%Corporate & Elim.(56,964) (49,349) (55,896)15%2% (1,347) (1,999) (2,450)-33%-45% (1,331) (2,755) (5,639)-52%-76%Total73,79364,17968,04715%8%14,37516,67710,599-14%36%5,5676,336 (1,346)-12%-514%Source: Deutsche Bank and company re
56、portsPage 6Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.127 October 2012Oil & GasPetrobrasBalance sheet: net debt ratio stable versus QoQPetrobras cash position increased during the quarter to R$30bn (-10%YoY but+15%QoQ). Net debt/net equity ratio remained fairly stable at 28% (versus 28.2% in2Q12 but increased fro
57、m 21.7% in 3Q11).Figure 7: Petrobras balance sheet highlightsR$mn3Q12A3Q12A3Q11A2Q12A3Q11A2Q12ACash and equivalentsGovernment securitiesShort term debtLong term debtTotal debtNet debtNet debt / net equityTotal debt / total equityNet debt / EBITDA30,18722,43315,341171,215186,556133,93628.0%35.1%2.333
58、3,65921,39020,019126,825146,84491,79521.7%30.7%1.3826,31819,62917,611161,564179,175133,22828.2%34.6%3.14-10%5%-23%35%27%46%29%14%15%14%-13%6%4%1%-1%2%Source: Deutsche Bank and company reportsCash flow: more of the same. Capex still higher than cashgenerationOperating cash flow rose by 49% QoQ, due t
59、o better operational results. Capex duringthe quarter remained stable sequentially, reaching R$19.5bn (+18%YoY and -1%QoQ),reflecting higher investments in Gas & Energy, intl and distribution segments. Freecash of R$1mn versus a loss in 2Q12 but well below versus year ago levels, BUT thatincludes co
60、nversion of securities into cash. During the quarter, the company addedR$13.7bn in new debt but retired R$7.0bn of old debt and paid R$3.1bn in interest.Figure 8: Petrobras cash flow highlightsR$mn3Q12A3Q12A3Q11A2Q12A3Q11A2Q12ANet operating cash flowCapexE&PRefingGas and EnergyDistributionInternatio
61、nalOther investments16,367(19,510)(10,325)(6,405)(956)(281)(1,542)3,14415,351(16,493)(7,839)(6,674)(855)(185)(940)3,28511,014(19,687)(11,116)(6,379)(852)(255)(1,084)(620)7%18%32%-4%12%52%64%49%-1%-7%0%12%10%42%Free cash flow2,142(9,292)FinancingDividendsNet Cash generated in the period3,787(3)3,785(
62、1,645)(2,393)(1,896)(1,502)(3,948)(14,742)Source: Deutsche Bank and company reportsDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page 727 October 2012Oil & GasPetrobrasValuation and risksPetrobras - Our PT is derived using DCF analysis. Our DCF assumptions include aUS$110/barrel long term oil price forecast. We use
63、the DCF methodology because weconsider it a superior indicator of value to multiples, as it relies on free cash flowsgenerated over a longer period of time rather than the profitability of a single year. OurWACC of 10.1% is based on 30% leverage and 9.2% after-tax cost of debt. We alsoassume 10.4% c
64、ost of equity based on a 1.9% sovereign risk premium that reflectsBrazils risk improvement over the past year, a 3.0% risk free rate and a 5.5% equity riskpremium (historical average), along with a 1.0 Beta to the local market and a 3.0%terminal growth rate (which is below long term inflation expect
65、ations for Brazil).Upside risks to our target price being achieved include: 1) sooner-than-expectedrecovery in oil prices and 2) increased flows into Emerging markets, which tend tobenefit Petrobras due to its high liquidity. Downside risks include: 1) lower-thanexpected oil prices, 2) delays in Pet
66、robras execution of the production schedule, 3)interference from Petrobras main shareholder, the Brazilian government, and 4)Brazilian macroeconomic factors.Page 8Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.11.1.27 October 2012Oil & GasPetrobrasAppendix 1Important DisclosuresAdditional information available upon r
67、equestDisclosure checklistCompanyPetrobrasTickerPBR.NRecent price*22.40 (USD) 26 Oct 12Disclosure*Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companiesImportant Disclosures Required by U.S. RegulatorsDisclosures mar
68、ked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offeringfor
69、this company, for which it received fees.Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. RegulatorsPlease also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a publ
70、ic or private offeringfor this company, for which it received fees.For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourweb
71、site at http:/ CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about thesubject issuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receiveany compensation for providing a
72、specific recommendation or view in this report. Marcus SequeiraDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page 9SecurityPrice1.4.2.5.3.6.27 October 2012Oil & GasPetrobrasHistorical recommendations and target price: Petrobras (PBR.N)(as of 10/26/2012)45.0040.0035.0030.0025.001234Previous RecommendationsStrong BuyB
73、uyMarket PerformUnderperformNot RatedSuspended RatingCurrent Recommendations20.0056BuyHold15.0010.005.000.00SellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,2002Nov 10Feb 11May 11Aug 11Nov 11DateFeb 12May 12Aug 1207/03/2011:16/09/2011:23/01/2012:Hold, Target Price Change U
74、SD44.00Hold, Target Price Change USD40.00Hold, Target Price Change USD35.0024/04/2012:15/06/2012:26/07/2012:Hold, Target Price Change USD32.00Hold, Target Price Change USD27.00Hold, Target Price Change USD26.00Equity rating keyEquity rating dispersion and banking relationshipsBuy: Based on a current
75、 12- month view of totalshare-holder return (TSR = percentage change inshare price from current price to projected target priceplus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend thatinvestors buy the stock.60050040030053 %42 %Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recom
76、mend that investors sell thestockHold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months200100013 %Buy14 %Hold5%Sell9%out and, based on this time horizon, do notrecommend either a Buy or Sell.Notes:Companies CoveredCos. w/ Banking Relationship1. Newly issued research recommendations andtarget prices alw
77、ays supersede previously publishedresearch.2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)of 10% or more over a 12-month periodGlobal UniverseHold:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month periodSell: Expected
78、total return (including dividends)of -10% or worse over a 12-month periodPage 10Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.27 October 2012Oil & GasPetrobrasRegulatory Disclosures1. Important Additional Conflict DisclosuresAside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https:/ u
79、nder theDisclosures Lookup and Legal tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.2. Short-Term Trade IdeasDeutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that areconsistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Ban
80、ks existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at theSOLAR link at http:/.3. Country-Specific DisclosuresAustralia and New Zealand: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for wholesale clients within themeaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zealand Financ
81、ial Advisors Act respectively.Brazil: The views expressed above accurately reflect personal views of the authors about the subject company(ies) andits(their) securities, including in relation to Deutsche Bank. The compensation of the equity research analyst(s) isindirectly affected by revenues deriv
82、ing from the business and financial transactions of Deutsche Bank. In cases whereat least one Brazil based analyst (identified by a phone number starting with +55 country code) has taken part in thepreparation of this research report, the Brazil based analyst whose name appears first assumes primary
83、 responsibility forits content from a Brazilian regulatory perspective and for its compliance with CVM Instruction # 483.EUcountries:DisclosuresrelatingtoourobligationsunderMiFiDcanbefoundathttp:/ Disclosures under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law: Company name - Deutsche Securities Inc.Re
84、gistration number - Registered as a financial instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau(Kinsho) No. 117. Member of associations: JSDA, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association, The Financial FuturesAssociation of Japan, Japan Investment Advisers Association. Commissions
85、 and risks involved in stock transactions - forstock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the transaction amount by thecommission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of share price fluctuationsand other factors. Tr
86、ansactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchangefluctuations. Moodys, Standard & Poors, and Fitch mentioned in this report are not registered credit ratingagencies in Japan unless “Japan” or Nippon is specifically designated in the name of the entity.Russia:
87、This information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute,any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page 11ChileDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Latin American locationsDeutsche Ba
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