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1、Technologys Future:Breaking down BarriersRick RashidRick RashidMicrosoft ResearchMicrosoft Research技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Technology in the late 20th centuryn nMoores LawMoores Lawn nComputers double in Computers double in power every 18 monthspower every 18 monthsn nPrice/performancePrice/performancen n
2、1,000,000X boost in last 1,000,000X boost in last 20 years20 yearsn n1,000,000X more in the 1,000,000X more in the next 20 yearsnext 20 yearsn nMoores Law true for Moores Law true for last 35 yearslast 35 yearsn nLikely to continue for at Likely to continue for at least 35 more yearsleast 35 more ye
3、ars技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Exponential change meansn nThe future rapidly washes away the past技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Exponential change means.n nMore computing will take place in the next 10 years than in the previous history of mankind技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Exponential change means.n nEverything up to now doesnt co
4、unt技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒and you aint seen nothing yetn nEven more rapid change in graphics, storage and networking technologies will shape the next ten years技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Technology building momentumn nGraphicsGraphicsn nFactor of 100 improvement over 3 yearsFactor of 100 improvement over 3 years技技
5、术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Technology building momentumn nStorageStoragen nFactor of 7 improvement in 2 yearsFactor of 7 improvement in 2 years技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Technology building momentumn nNetwork bandwidthNetwork bandwidthn nFactor of 64 improvement in 3 yearsFactor of 64 improvement in 3 yearsn nFactor of
6、 2 every 6 monthsFactor of 2 every 6 months技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒New Technologies on the Horizonn nNew Technologies (e.g. Dalton Group, Univ. of Wash.)New Technologies (e.g. Dalton Group, Univ. of Wash.)n nNanoscale materials and processingNanoscale materials and processingn nSingle Wall Carbon Nanotube
7、 ActuatorsSingle Wall Carbon Nanotube Actuatorsn nCondensed Matter TheoryCondensed Matter Theoryn nMany-body, long-range, spatial-anisotropic interactionsMany-body, long-range, spatial-anisotropic interactionsn nPolymeric Electro-Optic Modulator MaterialsPolymeric Electro-Optic Modulator Materialsn
8、nHigh Frequency Modulators; VLSI Integration; 1 voltHigh Frequency Modulators; VLSI Integration; 1 voltn nSensors & detectors, EO signal transducers, Optical switches, Sensors & detectors, EO signal transducers, Optical switches, Spatial light modulators, Oscillators, Phased array radar, A/D Spatial
9、 light modulators, Oscillators, Phased array radar, A/D converters, Optical gyroscopes, Amplifiersconverters, Optical gyroscopes, Amplifiersn nNew opportunitiesNew opportunitiesn n100 GHz local area networks100 GHz local area networksn n1 THz wide area network1 THz wide area networkn nElectro-optic
10、backplanes and interconnectsElectro-optic backplanes and interconnects技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Technology in 21st century:Breaking down barriersn nThe “reality” barrierThe “reality” barriern nGraphics, vision, signal Graphics, vision, signal processingprocessingn nBarriers between peopleBarriers between pe
11、oplen nCollaboration and Collaboration and communications toolscommunications toolsn nBarriers between people Barriers between people and computersand computersn nUI, language, speech, UI, language, speech, visionvisionn nBarriers between people Barriers between people and informationand information
12、n nDatabases, data mining, Databases, data mining, scalable computingscalable computingn nBarriers between Barriers between computerscomputersn nHigh speed networkingHigh speed networkingn nBarriers between work, Barriers between work, car, home, etc.car, home, etc.n nAdaptive systems, wireless Adap
13、tive systems, wireless computingcomputing技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Breaking the”reality” barriern nBy 2001 we will be close to “Toy Story” style graphics generated in real-time on PCsn nWithin 5-10 years a PC game will be on par with “reality”技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒The Virtual “Me”技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Generating li
14、fe-like speechn nData-driven stochastic speechn nNatural soundingNatural soundingn nRapid, automatic customizabilityRapid, automatic customizabilityn nExamplesn nSynthetic voice w/ transplanted speech Synthetic voice w/ transplanted speech contourscontours技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Artificial singingn nAT&T
15、Voder, 1962, by Homer Dudleyn nDaisy (Inspiration for HALs voice in 2001)Daisy (Inspiration for HALs voice in 2001)n nMicrosoft Research Whistler, 1997n nScarborough FairScarborough Fair技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Breaking down barriers between peoplen nSideshown nTechnology to help people coordinate with Tec
16、hnology to help people coordinate with others and stay aware of important others and stay aware of important information in their worldinformation in their worldn nI-Camn nCreating better virtual meetings, lectures and Creating better virtual meetings, lectures and training coursestraining courses技技
17、术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Sideshow技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒I have 2 new messages Next mtg in 50 minsLiwei is availableKeith is not availableBarry is not available, and hes sent me a new messageNumber of changes made in this folderMilestone 1 code status (number of bugs assigned to me, spec changes, number of changes
18、 to source code)People who have responded to my invitationStatus of my eBay auctionStatus of my Dell PC order技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒I-CAM: Creating better virtual meeting placesn nEnablen nSimple broadcast / capture of meetingsSimple broadcast / capture of meetingsn nM
19、eetings anywhere, any timeMeetings anywhere, any timen nExploren nNew camera systemsNew camera systemsn nNew software control systemsNew software control systemsn nMultiple person tracking & speaker trackingMultiple person tracking & speaker trackingn nVirtual video directorVirtual video directorn n
20、Automated InterfacesAutomated Interfaces技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒MSR Ring Cameran nLow costLow costn n$300$300n nHigh qualityHigh qualityn n3000 x 500 pixels3000 x 500 pixelsn nEasy to deployEasy to deploy技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Automated Meeting Interfacesn nSoftware solution:Software solution:n nTracking camer
21、as, microphone Tracking cameras, microphone arrays, arrays, n nVideo production rules from Video production rules from professionalsprofessionalsn nMapping of rules to cameras Mapping of rules to cameras and software video directorand software video directorn nResults:Results:n nHuman operator bette
22、r, but Human operator better, but difference is not statistically difference is not statistically significantsignificantn nPeople could not distinguish People could not distinguish which operator was human which operator was human and which was computerand which was computer技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Breakin
23、g down barriers between people and computersn nHandwritingn nSpeechn nComputer visionn nNatural language processing技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Analyzing languagen nLanguage recognition shipped in Word 97n nGeneral purpose text-critiquing, summarization, Japanese word-breaking技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Inside The Offic
24、e Grammar Checker技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Understanding language: MindNetn nA huge language A huge language knowledge baseknowledge basen nAutomatically created Automatically created from dictionariesfrom dictionariesn nWords (nodes) linked by Words (nodes) linked by relationships relationships n nMillions
25、 of linksMillions of linksn nNow adding (Encarta) Now adding (Encarta) encyclopedia knowledgeencyclopedia knowledge技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Is_amouthLocn_ofMindNet - “Going to the birds”MindNet - “Going to the birds”facepecklimbgoosecreaturemakeIs_aTyp_objsoundTyp_subjpreenIs_aPartfeatherNot_is_aplantIs_ag
26、aggleIs_aIs_aPartPart_ofcatchTyp_subj_ofTyp_objclawwingIs_aturtlebeakIs_aIs_astrikeMeanshawkTyp_subjopeningIs_achatterMeansTyp_subjTyp_objIs_aIs_acleansmoothbillIs_aduckIs_aTyp_0bj_ofkeepanimalquackIs_aCausePurposebirdmeateggpoultryIs_asupplyPurposeTyp_objQuesphenchickenIs_aIs_alegarmIs_aIs_aIs_aTyp
27、_subj_offly技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Mindnet Applicationsn nInformation Retrievaln nData miningn nQuestion answeringn nSpoken language understandingn nNatural language translation技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Breaking down barriers between people and informationn n“Personal” terabyte databasesn nDatabase auto-administr
28、ationn nDatamining技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒The Terabyte PC 2004n nWhat will I store on my terabyte PC?n nAll the transactions my small-to-medium size All the transactions my small-to-medium size business will ever make business will ever make n nAll of my personal data from birth to deathAll of my personal
29、 data from birth to deathn nCalendars, notes, letters, photosCalendars, notes, letters, photosn nAn entire lifetime of conversationsAn entire lifetime of conversations技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒TerraServer:The “Whole Earth” Database技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒技技术术的
30、未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒TerraServer HardwareSQLInst1SQLInst1SQLInst2SQLInst2SQLInst3SQLInst3SpareSpareFGLKP QEEJJO OIHMNRS220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200One SQL database per rackOne SQL database per rackEach rack contains 4.5 tbEach rack contains 4.5 t
31、b261 total drives / 13.7 TB total261 total drives / 13.7 TB total Meta DataMeta DataStored on 101 GBStored on 101 GB“Fast, Small Disks”“Fast, Small Disks”(18 x 18.2 GB)(18 x 18.2 GB) Imagery DataImagery DataStored on 4 339 GBStored on 4 339 GB“Slow, Big Disks”“Slow, Big Disks”(15 x 73.8 GB)(15 x 73.
32、8 GB)Added 90 72.8 GBAdded 90 72.8 GBDisks in Dec 2000Disks in Dec 2000to create 18 TB SANto create 18 TB SAN8 Compaq DL360 “Photon” Web Servers8 Compaq DL360 “Photon” Web ServersFiber SANFiber SANSwitchesSwitches4 Compaq ProLiant 8500 Db Servers4 Compaq ProLiant 8500 Db Servers技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Ter
33、raServer GrowthJune 98June 98Jan 99Jan 99Jan 00Jan 00May 00May 00TodayTodayDec 01Dec 01SQL 7.01.0 TB DbSQL 20001.0 TB DbSQL 20001.0 TB DbSQL 20001.0 TB DbSQL 20002.0 TB DbSQL 20002.0 TB DbSQL 20002.0 TB Db1 Server / Win NT 4.0 EE1 Server / Win NT 4.0 EE2 2ndnd Server / Win 2k DataCenter Server / Win
34、 2k DataCenter 4 Node / Win2k Datacenter 4 Node / Win2k Datacenter Failover ClusterFailover ClusterSQL 7.01.0 TB Db217 m Rows217 m RowsSQL 7.01 Server1.5 TB DbSQL 20001 Server.8 TB Db298 m Rows298 m RowsSQL 7.0SQL 7.0.75 TB Db.75 TB Db173 m Rows173 m Rows668 m Rows668 m RowsSQL 2000.8 TB Db231 m Row
35、s231 m Rows900 m Rows900 m Rows Unique Users Unique Users Page Views Page Views Image Tiles Image Tiles Db Queries Db Queries Bytes Xfered Bytes XferedDailyDailyAverageAverage45,08045,080879,361879,3613,779,2613,779,2614,553,2824,553,28259 GB59 GBPeakPeakDayDay277,292277,29212,388,10412,388,10410,47
36、5,67410,475,674163 GB163 GB2,401,2092,401,20930 Month30 MonthTotalTotal41,564,09641,564,096810,771,258810,771,2583,484,478,3953,484,478,3954,198,126,4364,198,126,43653 TB53 TB技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒TerraServer Experiencen nSuccessful Web SiteSuccessful Web Siten n50,000 daily users satisfied with “human-
37、accessible” 50,000 daily users satisfied with “human-accessible” datadatan n59 GB imagery transmitted daily59 GB imagery transmitted dailyn nNew Feature RequestsNew Feature Requestsn nProgrammable access to meta-dataProgrammable access to meta-datan nUser selectable image sizes, i.e. “a map server”U
38、ser selectable image sizes, i.e. “a map server”n nPermission to use TerraServer data within server Permission to use TerraServer data within server applicationsapplicationsTo the rescue!技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒.NET TerraService ArchitectureExistingDB ServerSQL 20001.0 TB DbSQL 20001.0 TB DbSQL 20001.0 TB
39、Db668 m Rows668 m RowsADO.NETADO.NETTerraServerTerraServer Web Web ServiceServiceOLEDBMap ServerMap Server Http Http HandlerHandlerMap UIMap UI Web FormsWeb FormsStandardStandardBrowsersBrowsersSmartSmartClientsClientsWindowsWindowsFormsForms.NET.NETFrameworkFrameworkXMLHTMLImage/jpegImage/jpeg技技术术的
40、未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Production ApplicationTerraServer Web ServicesTerraServer Web Services技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒TerraServer/TerraServicen nSpin-off Projectsn nSloan Digital Sky SurveySloan Digital Sky Surveyn nPhotoServer (SQL version)PhotoServer (SQL version)n nExample .NET Servicen nFall MIT .NET course buil
41、t around TerraServiceFall MIT .NET course built around TerraServicen nKey Linksn n n n 技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Breaking down the barriers between computersn nWAN bandwidth doubling every 6 monthsn nWANs faster than LANs n nOC-192 vs. Gigabit EthernetOC-192 vs. Gigabit Ethernetn nSteeper WAN bandwidth incr
42、ease curveSteeper WAN bandwidth increase curve技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Windows 2000: Gigabit to the Desktopn nSupercomputer 99 demonstration of Gigabit Wide Area Networking (WAN) with Windows 2000n nGigabit application-to-application over 300km Gigabit application-to-application over 300km (from MS/UW to P
43、ortland)(from MS/UW to Portland)n nJoint project between MS/MSR, UW, NCSA, Joint project between MS/MSR, UW, NCSA, NSF, DARPA, any othersNSF, DARPA, any othersn nInternet2 “Land-Speed” Recordn nNearly 1Gbit/sec application speed over Nearly 1Gbit/sec application speed over 5600KM w/desktop PCs5600KM
44、 w/desktop PCs技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Breaking down barriers between work, home, office, car, etc.n nAdaptive systemsn nPriorities and MSR Notification PlatformPriorities and MSR Notification Platformn nWireless networkingn nMobile devices技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Prioritiesn nCross-device experience: desktop / m
45、obilen nEmail, appointments, remindersEmail, appointments, remindersn nLearns about time-critical messagesn nMonitors, learns patterns of user presencen nConsiders urgency, calendar, activity ?技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒y Track presence, durations of absence, conditioned on calendar, time o
46、f day, time away, etc.y Compute probability distribution over time until user expected backy Coordination, communication applicationsPriorities Availability Forecasting:Learning a Users Presence Patterns技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Automated Setting of Availability技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Selective OOF with Return Fo
47、recast技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒EmailBackground QueryNews ServiceInformationSourcesStockwatcherMessengerLookoutSchedulingRAIDTelephoneDocWatchNotification ManagerNotificationPreferencesContextWhiteboardContext FuserContextSourcesDesktop activityCalendarAmbientacousticsAccelerometerdataVideo analysisLocation
48、Pocket PCDevices &RenderingDesktopHomeDesktopOfficeCell PhoneVoicemailXML (Notification Schema)XML(Device Schema)技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Environmental computingn nComputers embedded into everythingn nComputing is “just there”n nThe environment adjusts to us技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Video: Easy L
49、iving技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒The New Future?n nWere at an inflection point in what computers Were at an inflection point in what computers can do for individualscan do for individualsn nGraphics soon to rival realityGraphics soon to rival realityn nAlmost unlimited storageAlmost unlimited storagen nAlmost
50、 unlimited bandwidthAlmost unlimited bandwidthn nRules have changed, what was impractical is Rules have changed, what was impractical is now rationalenow rationalen n3D faster than 2D3D faster than 2Dn nIndividuals can store the Internet on their own PCsIndividuals can store the Internet on their ow
51、n PCs技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒Microsoft Research:Breaking down the Barriersn nSoftware that can create “visual reality” and even Software that can create “visual reality” and even simulate real world physicssimulate real world physicsn n“Human” User Interfaces“Human” User Interfacesn nSoftware that can see
52、, speak, listen & learnSoftware that can see, speak, listen & learnn nVirtual conferencing and new forms of collaboration, Virtual conferencing and new forms of collaboration, communication and learningcommunication and learningn nRegional and national computing clusters that support Regional and national computing clusters that support hundreds of millions of usershundreds of millions of usersn nTruly mobile officesTruly mobile officesn nInvisible computingInvisible computing技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒技技术术的未来突破壁的未来突破壁垒垒
