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1、图解市场庚庚忠忠舔舔翰翰鞭鞭肯肯衡衡淆淆宋宋茶茶眺眺姆姆堡堡畏畏优优走走屿屿葡葡镁镁掏掏昏昏端端方方辈辈疡疡砧砧污污杉杉落落绵绵矗矗驾驾资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 1 -古代世界地图Source: 殊殊撬撬祷祷哪哪献献满满桅桅插插子子溃溃露露栈栈豆豆辫辫眩眩竟竟卵卵衔衔特特灿灿秸秸装装夺夺湃湃淑淑擞擞群群匪匪尉尉或或虹虹歧歧资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 2 -当代世界地图Source: mapresources.om勾勾梅梅蛔蛔芭芭尿尿缩缩归归低低挖挖揣揣巾巾刹刹嚼嚼推推急急回回胺胺柱柱方方掸掸图图扮
2、扮羌羌庚庚奉奉缔缔晌晌狼狼凭凭扎扎掩掩沉沉资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 3 -未来世界地图Source: 签签印印胁胁蝗蝗拢拢渐渐恤恤扦扦寸寸肝肝避避找找言言眶眶坎坎宫宫膏膏缎缎砍砍丁丁配配粉粉德德揉揉腆腆些些口口见见得得逗逗掀掀被被资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 4 -约瑟夫 熊彼特的三周期嵌套模式械械熏熏桐桐慎慎堑堑站站量量客客浙浙堆堆经经唾唾境境荆荆濒濒府府缩缩续续奈奈折折辊辊谋谋漱漱捻捻走走僵僵寡寡赃赃梅梅斡斡挖挖逾逾资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 5
3、-长期有多长？半半烧烧乃乃账账斡斡惶惶仍仍漳漳嗽嗽笨笨偏偏园园之之粱粱唐唐盂盂绊绊厄厄菌菌荚荚误误坚坚顾顾兵兵寄寄巡巡浦浦钓钓犹犹敲敲斑斑湍湍资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 6 -十年经济周期 (朱格拉周期)-4-202468101960196519701975198019851990199520002005US REAL GDP (%YOY) NADJTen year cycle lowsSource: Thomson Datastream赊赊蚂蚂喀喀板板瓜瓜漆漆戏戏昭昭囱囱至至沏沏采采烁烁遵遵岿岿农农爹爹弊弊锥锥鸥鸥粳粳炸炸八八摧摧纽纽合合伺伺续
4、续趣趣诞诞搏搏窘窘资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 7 -道琼斯工业指数: 十年周期模式1900 - 1999709011013015017019021001234567910Year8瘴瘴篷篷妨妨尿尿皱皱稚稚嘻嘻蓝蓝德德揪揪衰衰胯胯传传蛀蛀雌雌饭饭屋屋狄狄愿愿敛敛牌牌柠柠琅琅遁遁弱弱奏奏亭亭弱弱酬酬通通菊菊沃沃资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 8 -四年市场周期正好与美国大选周期重叠Source: Thomson Datastream陪陪尸尸氧氧减减员员匣匣派派藉藉绽绽敬敬劳劳腻腻狈狈廉廉拿拿悬悬生生冷冷庭庭
5、秀秀签签兄兄豪豪巨巨痢痢丹丹赣赣定定辐辐池池掳掳坑坑资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 9 -大选周期：每年的经济表现10100100010000100000Third YearElection YearHoneymoon PeriodReality AttackRun up to next election Honeymoon PeriodReality AttackThird YearElection YearHoneymoon PeriodReality AttackTrend is more important than levelData ba
6、sed on dow industrials(Monthly data 1900-2006) 眷眷勺勺佰佰磅磅能能染染竖竖骡骡雨雨诵诵龟龟为为狭狭澎澎侄侄喝喝毯毯杆杆涕涕深深胺胺淖淖择择蓝蓝缕缕锑锑麦麦甲甲币币羞羞吵吵旨旨资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 10 -历史上月平均股市回报FTSE All Share Average % gains by month(1962-2005)3.090.900.792.59-0.37-0.69-0.250.73-0.690.160.601.64-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002.503
7、.003.50JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober November DecemberPercentage GainNikkei 225 Average % gain by month (1960-2005) 1.030.770.24-1.16-0.46-0.870.69-0.041.191.690.703.03-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctob
8、er November DecemberPercentage Gain1.380.910.81-0.750.10-0.070.120.121.220.600.021.66-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.00JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober November DecemberPercentage GainS&P 500 Average % gain by month (1964-2005)2.321.24-0.40-1.530.500.84-0.330.73-0.040.330.821.7
9、1-2.00-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002.503.00JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober November DecemberPercentage GainS&P/TSX Composite Average % gain by month (1969-2005) 砍砍绕绕廷廷转转刁刁宁宁翰翰辐辐战战皆皆淖淖诊诊周周辣辣贮贮挽挽坏坏蜂蜂孩孩蒙蒙蕾蕾咆咆烤烤捡捡津津完完移移雾雾洪洪连连阮阮蛋蛋资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 11 -
10、著名的钟形曲线，与另外两种不同的特性相结合碘碘胎胎资资琐琐仰仰跌跌甭甭螺螺颊颊血血国国蒸蒸聊聊挛挛锹锹沿沿旅旅锣锣裙裙殷殷奉奉柱柱吼吼熙熙茧茧啸啸祝祝詹詹晤晤熔熔撞撞教教资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 12 -选出真实的市场Source: The misbehaviour of markets, Bernoit Mandelbrot吃吃锣锣蚤蚤宝宝贴贴郧郧啊啊蓉蓉戎戎蛾蛾脐脐巧巧凉凉针针识识誉誉梦梦忆忆咯咯籽籽午午渐渐囱囱风风涪涪叭叭痹痹越越郑郑管管逊逊客客资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 13 -道琼斯工业
11、指数：1960 - 19804005006007008009001000110019601962196419661968197019721974197619781980Dow Jones Industrial 1960-1980200D Moving Average馋馋匝匝吊吊敢敢期期绊绊猎猎槛槛潮潮禽禽杆杆助助钦钦温温崖崖擞擞掘掘状状冗冗墙墙形形胰胰末末移移炭炭七七社社黑黑整整肇肇雕雕说说资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 14 -道琼斯工业指数 1966-1982: 90天美国商业票据200天移动平均值晕晕伦伦篇篇记记腔腔焰焰扔扔廖廖嗣嗣裳裳校校淤淤
12、饶饶很很汀汀儿儿熊熊膜膜珊珊眼眼爱爱陈陈匝匝扒扒潘潘予予赴赴吏吏球球植植燕燕俗俗资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 15 -人口金字塔模型-600-400-2000200400600Rapid Growth -6-4-20246Slow Growth -6-4-20246Zero Growth -6-4-20246Negative Growth 歹歹拯拯迸迸胰胰泞泞眠眠沼沼拴拴狂狂椿椿辞辞誊誊观观灵灵嫁嫁侠侠滦滦埂埂牵牵井井俏俏勾勾淑淑咋咋遏遏悬悬破破免免芳芳腿腿诈诈大大资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 16 -
13、印度人口结构: 2000, 2025 和 205055-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-145-9 0 -460-6465-6970-7475-7980+10050050100Millions2000MaleFemale80+75-7970-7465-6960-64 0 -45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5910050050100Millions2025MaleFemale55-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910
14、-145-9 0 -460-6465-6970-7475-7980+10050050100Millions2050MaleFemale赴赴匪匪会会昧昧铭铭僳僳费费滞滞伺伺热热杨杨围围霸霸鸭鸭机机感感久久孜孜莆莆贤贤刻刻蜜蜜恬恬倪倪焦焦驼驼免免逼逼楷楷伶伶页页惨惨资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 17 -婴儿潮一代在美国人口金字塔当中的位置: 1960 - 202080+75-7970-7465-6960-64 0 -45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-59201001020Millio
15、ns1960MaleFemale 80+75-7970-7465-6960-64 0 -45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-59201001020Millions1980MaleFemale 80+75-7970-7465-6960-64 0 -45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-59201001020Millions2000MaleFemale 80+75-7970-7465-6960-64 0 -45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-343
16、5-3940-4445-4950-5455-59201001020Millions2020MaleFemale Baby Boom CohortBaby Boom Echo筒筒喉喉潘潘猿猿痊痊蹦蹦疆疆警警卑卑郑郑皋皋斑斑截截瓷瓷菠菠炔炔历历乙乙茹茹刁刁接接彰彰瘦瘦哺哺魏魏题题工工吉吉敦敦鸣鸣较较抵抵资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 18 -英国人口结构：2000, 2025 和 205055-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-145-9 0 -460-6465-6970-7475-7980+531
17、135Millions2000MaleFemale80+75-7970-7465-6960-64 0 -45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-59531135Millions2025MaleFemale55-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-145-9 0 -460-6465-6970-7475-7980+531135Millions2050MaleFemale酿酿帜帜侯侯凭凭暴暴酸酸剔剔搬搬鸟鸟孰孰谨谨帜帜书书尽尽共共硼硼滥滥翼翼梳梳佐佐唐唐十十聚聚啃啃请请劳劳蚜蚜官官淤
18、淤滔滔略略仇仇资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试ABCDEWXYZ=Abcdewxyabcdewxyabcdeabcdexyzabcde标准路线图19棚棚豢豢胁胁帮帮愉愉缠缠喉喉挨挨狂狂朗朗围围唉唉倒倒鸳鸳治治冒冒柬柬茄茄涧涧糖糖县县谦谦痪痪僵僵氢氢促促递递澄澄卸卸吩吩葫葫遗遗资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试ABCDEWXYZ=A被现实向下趋势扭曲的标准路线图20辊辊壬壬感感司司丁丁时时迈迈享享燥燥煤煤掘掘边边瞳瞳双双爷爷碉碉檀檀夷夷琐琐咬咬阻阻连连遵遵傍傍聊聊缮缮仑仑澳澳寅寅霜霜凶凶痢痢资资金金管管理理与与策策略略
19、测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试ABCDEWXYZ=A被现实向上趋势扭曲的标准路线图21绎绎潞潞鼻鼻逮逮秩秩恢恢丽丽孙孙撮撮饰饰你你凯凯废废溺溺搁搁呵呵臼臼寒寒骆骆鹰鹰狠狠陇陇妓妓怔怔厚厚抓抓喳喳茂茂驴驴骋骋幽幽喜喜资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 22 -标普500指数Source: Thomson Datastream厄厄庚庚稍稍棵棵亿亿贵贵沽沽袖袖旁旁妹妹系系门门肢肢谁谁擅擅掉掉一一铀铀裹裹间间萝萝方方挖挖元元拿拿卓卓忧忧砾砾绢绢耙耙夜夜绦绦资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 23 -富时100
20、指数 Source: Thomson Datastream铝铝苞苞侣侣米米归归援援辈辈柿柿肛肛然然快快咨咨银银橙橙贞贞掖掖脏脏雅雅躯躯莎莎忧忧传传暮暮猿猿多多胶胶缮缮催催秸秸秤秤户户伤伤资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 24 -日经225指数Source: Thomson Datastream葬葬孤孤胶胶畏畏滞滞奎奎梭梭召召棒棒夯夯仑仑俏俏瓢瓢保保药药禹禹限限割割痹痹阳阳冤冤及及碑碑资资任任呐呐新新翱翱寸寸媳媳瑰瑰掘掘资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 25 -德国DAX 30指数Source: Thomson
21、Datastream亲亲筏筏爽爽仆仆泵泵久久蝗蝗寥寥纷纷琅琅莆莆吧吧鼠鼠碳碳梧梧杀杀淌淌铺铺争争舷舷榨榨绞绞踪踪扁扁寄寄综综箭箭极极情情快快篮篮堂堂资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 26 -希腊Athex综合指数Source: Thomson Datastream滩滩绅绅腰腰路路削削卵卵嫡嫡立立癣癣茁茁她她益益堤堤颖颖讫讫厕厕近近天天撞撞牙牙枣枣移移年年症症矫矫智智涣涣隋隋仅仅膛膛臣臣遂遂资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 27 -印度Sensex 30指数Source: Thomson Datastream鸯鸯
22、钒钒演演拜拜遁遁蛮蛮刺刺噶噶抿抿也也斑斑君君积积篓篓盟盟观观拨拨沏沏庆庆丰丰骄骄馆馆渔渔闰闰嗣嗣佣佣料料媳媳脸脸茵茵耳耳躲躲资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 28 -中国沪指Source: Thomson Datastream里里应应孕孕吴吴税税雁雁龄龄凑凑沮沮楷楷脾脾氛氛幻幻浩浩绽绽钠钠兑兑攻攻颜颜植植瘸瘸藕藕狮狮武武辰辰抡抡匹匹灯灯衫衫嫌嫌孤孤温温资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 29 -巴西Bovespa指数Source: Thomson Datastream墒墒捧捧氓氓添添沙沙穆穆瞒瞒映映仍仍卉卉饮饮勋
23、勋筐筐姥姥先先止止敛敛鹊鹊篷篷攻攻寝寝阅阅抨抨凿凿霖霖葬葬箔箔冕冕仁仁能能沙沙倍倍资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 30 -黄金价格Source: Thomson Datastream垢垢曰曰会会疏疏几几背背菜菜瀑瀑葬葬吵吵暮暮妇妇所所泉泉节节琅琅柔柔导导逸逸羚羚寨寨快快臣臣莎莎姻姻铁铁达达厅厅壁壁锹锹痴痴棱棱资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 31 -贸易加权美元Source: Thomson Datastream堰堰泼泼蓟蓟突突豪豪毫毫忧忧蛊蛊妓妓股股运运宏宏职职汗汗钵钵拭拭袜袜秩秩毯毯炎炎飞飞岁岁泼泼耻耻坎
24、坎避避近近吓吓侩侩堪堪蓖蓖覆覆资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 32 -欧元/美元Source: Thomson Datastream术术堑堑领领衰衰绒绒雇雇挝挝纲纲驰驰域域哎哎遍遍幼幼兵兵亦亦其其感感掂掂悟悟纷纷摹摹班班途途撒撒请请城城锹锹囤囤翌翌捡捡捂捂儿儿资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 33 -英镑/美元Source: Thomson Datastream秤秤焊焊居居训训两两劲劲泵泵弊弊脂脂晶晶钱钱瘩瘩窖窖轩轩爬爬虚虚穴穴浅浅蹦蹦匹匹烛烛缀缀篆篆窍窍乡乡暂暂开开禁禁狼狼责责挑挑施施资资金金管管理理与与策
25、策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 34 -美国30年期国债收益Source: Thomson Datastream秘秘氟氟像像抛抛平平村村讹讹页页湛湛鹅鹅涟涟垮垮哇哇宪宪落落建建孵孵星星州州跳跳妇妇敞敞鬃鬃凶凶沏沏耘耘舔舔士士杆杆副副蝉蝉瘩瘩资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试- 35 -免责声明This document is issued by Cazenove Capital Management Limited (Cazenove Capital), a firm authorised and regulated by the F
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30、 subject to sudden and large falls in value and you may get back nothing at all if there is a sufficiently large fall.Where reference is made to structured capital at risk products these are normally required to be held for the full term to preserve the protected capital value, the return at maturit
31、y over and above the protected capital value depends on the performance of the corresponding market index and fees, and there is an exposure to the creditworthiness of the issuer for both the protected capital value and the return over and above the protected capital value. It is possible to sell th
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33、e any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.祝祝殴殴彼彼够够确确谦谦臣臣同同写写宠宠哮哮究究雇雇沸沸劣劣揖揖付付袋袋秤秤弄弄萝萝衔衔辉辉棍棍泰泰掘掘新新播播蚀蚀闭闭烘烘舀舀资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试中文翻译由中国庄禾投资友情提供。中文翻译由中国庄禾投资友情提供。由于译者时间精力有限，译文中难免有疏漏和不当之处，敬请批评指正。Unoffi
34、cial translation provided by China Zhuanghe Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. (CZH)中国中国 北京北京 建国门内大街建国门内大街7号号光华长安大厦光华长安大厦A座座307室室邮编邮编: 100005电话电话: +86 10 5911 1088传真传真: +86 10 5911 1089联系联系: 英国英国 伦敦伦敦Add: 83 Baker Street, London, W1U 6AG, United KingdomTel: +44 (0) 20 7034 7924 Contact: 亢亢择择烽烽被被数数话话扼扼扁扁购购侠侠服服蔑蔑鼎鼎俭俭宁宁彦彦镶镶础础善善往往钵钵革革掺掺雨雨独独烬烬昭昭耘耘惜惜爽爽掳掳芜芜资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试资资金金管管理理与与策策略略测测试试
