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1、The 16th National Congress of CPC and Chinas ProspectAngangHuCenterforChinaStudy,ChineseAcademyofSciences&TsinghuaUniversityJan.28,2003 The Focus of The 16th National Congress of CPC lWhowillbethechiefdecision-makersofChina?lHowabouttheirdecision-makingcapability?lCould they deal with significant ch
2、allenges homeandabroad?lWhatwouldbethefutureofChina?lWhatfactorswoulddeterminethefutureofChina?最重要的历史经验l党的历史经验表明，只要党内生活民主化、制度化，领导集体就稳定，也容易达到政治共识，促成中国发展的繁荣时期；反之则反。SuccessionPatternsindifferentperiodlThemostimportanttaskofCPCNationalCongressistoelectanddecidetheleadinggroupandleadershipcore.l1.1949-19
3、58:Institutional and democracy within partyl2.1959-1965:Destruction of partys rulel3.1966-1976:Non-InstitutionalizedleadershipsuccessionunderCentralizedSystem,GuidelineStrugglewithinCPCl4.1977-1987:rebuilding partys rule, young leadership,abnormalleadershipsuccessionintransitionperiodl5.1989-2002年:
4、InstitutionalizedleadershipsuccessionMyproposalforInstitutionalizationofLeadershipTransitionl从现在起进入新的阶段，即第四代领导人执政时期，也是党和国家领导人的变动制度化、规范化和程序化的重要时期。l其重要标志之一是党的领导人“到点退休”，而不是“半退”或转任。l重要标志之二是十六大党的领导机构成员（政治局常委、委员和书记处书记）进一步年轻化，应达到十三大的平均年龄水平。(HuAngang,June2002)Average Ages of Leaders(1982-2002）12th（1982）13th
5、（1987）14th（1992）15th（1997）16th（2002）Member of Standing Commission73.863.663.465.162.1Member of politburo 71.86461.962.960.7Secreatries63.756.259.362.959.7How to Making New Leaders YoungsterlMyanticipation(thebest)：Members of Standing Committee:4/7 retirement,account for 57%，newmembercomefromprovinci
6、alsecretarieswhoarecurrentmemberofPoliticalBureaulMembers of politburo :11/21 retirement,account for 45%,newmembercomefromprovincialsecretariesBiggst “吐故纳新”，大量补充新鲜血液lMembers of Standing Committee:6/7 retirement,account for 85%，averageyear:62yearslMembers of politburo:13/21 retirement,account for 62%
7、,averageyear:60.7yearsEducational structure of Members of Political Bureau（1982-2002)12th（1982）13th（ 1987）14th（ 1992）15th（1997）16th（ 2002）Illiteracy3（10.7）0000Primary10（35.7）0000Secondary3（10.7）5（27.7）3（13.6）2（8.3）0Military3（10.7）1（5.6）1（4.5）2（8.3）High educationUniversity9（32.2）12（ 66.6）17（ 77.2）18（
8、75）20（ 83.3）17（ 70.8）PostgraduateTotal001（4.5）2（8.3）4（16.7）2818222424MemberofPoliticalBureau(2002)lAverageschoolingyearis16.4years,belonghigheducatedlevel,itisthehighestlevel. lSpecialtybackground：Engineering：16，66.7Partyschool：2Socialscience：3Agriculture：1Military：3Patten of Political Leaders Sourc
9、es:Provincial Leaders l布什总统在回答一位美国小孩如何做好美国的总统时指出，首先必须学会作好美国的州长，才有可能做好美国总统；l美国的总统大部分来自于地方州长或政治领导人；lProvincialgovernanceisthebestschoolforcentralleaderstolearnnationalgovernanceandthebestexaminationofrecognitionandselectionforcentralleaders,andthebestpoliticalstage.l中国领导人的产生已经具有了某些美国领导人产生模式的特征，只是选举的方式
10、根本不同。Ratio of Working in Provincial Ratio of Working in Provincial Level to Central LeadersLevel to Central LeadersMemberofStandingCommitteeMemberofPoliticalBureau15th(1997)16th(2002)15th(1997)16th(2002)Workinginprovinciallevel87.5898383Formergeneralsecretary57565821Currentgeneralsecretary111742政治局成
11、员的地方工作经验 l省市委书记的位置是学习国家治理的最好学校和最好实践，也是成为中央领导人的重要“政治台阶”。这是不成文的“规则”。l十五届政治局成员83拥有省级领导经历，58曾任省市委书记，有4人现任省市委书记。l十六届政治局成员80拥有省级领导经历（除温家宝、曾培炎、郭伯雄、曹刚川、王刚），5人（20）曾任省市委书记，10人（40）现任省市委书记。l中央常委具有省级工作经验的为8人，占89；担任省市委书记的为6人，占57。l有地方工作经验的20名政治局委员中，任副省级的平均时间为4.3年，任正省级的平均时间为4.8年。l十六届政治局委员中曾在上海工作过的4人（4人仅在上海担任过领导职务），
12、北京是3（2）人。RegionalDistributionofPoliticalResources(Memberofpolitburo)l15th：4，Easternl16th：10Eastern：7Midst：1Western：2PossibilityofProvincialPartySecretaryasMemberofpolitburoforDifferentRegionsl1949-1997：Shanghai：9/11，Beijing：6/9，1987-1997：Guangdong:2/6，Tianjing：2，Shandong：2，Sichuan：1。l2002：上海：10/12，北
13、京：7/10，广东：2/7，天津：3次，山东：2次，四川：2次，湖北：1次，浙江：1次，江苏：1次，新疆：1次。PoliticalStagesforNewLeaderslNewmemberofpolitburo:8in15thand2candidateslTimeasmemberofCCP（candidate）：12th：1（9）13th：5（3）14th：5（8)15th：12（4）16th：1（0）（陈良宇）AverageyearofmemberofCCP:8.5yearsFeaturesofMembersofCCPlAverageage:55.4；l50yearsoldaccountfo
14、r1/5；l100membersin15thretirementandaccountfor50%;Partyandstateleaders:19;ministers32;provincialleaders:22;militaryleaders:21;other:6；lNewcomersaccountfor50%,大规模实现了“吐故纳新”；lExceptionafew,over65yearsoldcannotasmemberofCCPRatioofHighEducatedtoMembersofCCP12 th(1982)55.413 th(1987)73.314 th(1992)83.715 t
15、h(1997)92.4%16 th(2002)98.6CharacteristicsofLeadingGroupofCPClA.KnowledgeablelB.ProfessionallC.Tech-Bureaucracy(asaControl-GovernanceSystem)lD.Modernizationandwithopen-upideaslE. Good capacity of learning and decision-makinglF.KnowChinaandoutsideaswell党的领导人交替的制度化和规范化l邓小平废除了任期终身制，促进了领导人的年轻化，其重要标志为十三大
16、；l江泽民确立了领导人的退休制和任期制，进一步促进了领导人的年轻化（十六届政治局委员平均年龄为60.7岁），在中央决策机制与制度安排平衡了各地方的利益（类似于50年代到60年代毛泽东所安排的六大中央局的情形）。ImportantHistoricalContributionl没有变革型政治领导人中国不能加快发展；没有良好政治制度中国则不能持续发展。从历史的角度与历史的评价来看，领导人最重要的任务是国家制度建设，最重要的历史贡献是制度创新的贡献(Hu Angang,June 2002)。l中国领导人交替的制度化进程超过了我们的预想。 DirectionofPoliticalDevelopment(
17、19502002)l1953 1957: Industrialization and ThreeReformsl19571978:Classstruggleastheguidelinel1978tothe15thofCPCNationalCongress:Economicconstructionasthecoretask,andopenup“EraofEconomicConstruction”lFuture: Modern State Building as the CoreTask of CPC, to open up “Era of State-Building”Second Transi
18、tion of Partys Central Working:lFirst Transition(1978-2002): Economic construction as core working task for CPC; fromrevolutionarymeanstoadministrativemethods,fromrevolutionarytodevelopmentalparty,therulingpartywhoseaimistopromoteeconomicdevelopment,itcannotresolvesocialconflictsandsocialinequalityl
19、Second Transition(2003-):From Economic Construction to Institutional Construction(State-building)ReviewsonPoliticalSystemReformlA. The Aim of Political Reform by Now: topromote economic development and keepsocialStabilizationlB.DengXiaopingandPoliticalStabilizationlC. The Institutionalization of lea
20、dershipsuccessionlD.ReviewontheaimsofPoliticalreform:lE.Conclusion:PoliticalsystemreformseverelyrestricteconomictransformationandtheconstructionofdemocraticsystemFourPoliticalReformslReformofCPC;lReformofPeoplesNationalCongress;lReformofGovernment;lReformofjudicatureReformofCPClA.Aims: to build up t
21、ruly democratic rulingpartywhorepresenttheinterestsofthemostpeoplelB.Principles:toreformCPCaccordingtotheCPC democratic principle; govern CPCaccordingtotheCPCCharterlC. Contents of CPC Reform: to build upregularinstitutionsl1) To set up democratic decision makingprocedureswithinCPCl2)Namelessvotingp
22、rocedurel3) Up to down and down to up supervisioninstitutionl4) To regulate the functions and power ofGeneral Secretary of CCCPC and his /hertenurel5)Retirementageofleadershipl6)ForbidanyformsofcultofpersonalityReformofPeoplesNationalCongresslA.Aims: to reform its standing committeesystem, to build
23、up a true decision-makingNationalCongresslB.Contents:l1)TheelectionofMembersl2)Tosetupinquiry,hearingandcensorshipsysteminPeoplesNationalCongressl3) To clarify the budget and final accountsproceduresofPeoplesNationalCongressl4) To strengthen the connections withordinarypeopleGovernmentalReformlA.Aim
24、s:tobuilduplimitedandresponsiblegovernmentwithclearfunctionsandrights,tobuildavisibleandservice-centeredgovernmentlB.Contents:l1)Totransformthefunctionsofgovernmentl2)Tosetuppublicfinancesysteml3)Toreformadministrativeapprovalsysteml4)Tosetupinformationopeningregimel5)Tosetupscientificcivilservantsy
25、stemReformofjudicaturelA. Aims: to build up a comparativelyindependentjudicaturesystemlB.Contents:l1)Independentinstitutionl2)Independentworkoutl3)Independentoutlayl4)ExecutethelawindependentlyChallengesThattheForth-GenerationLeadersFacetolA.EconomicchallengeslB.SocialchallengeslC.Politicalchallenge
26、slD.InternationalchallengesTasksThattheForth-GenerationLeadersMustDealWithlA.EconomictaskslB.SocialtaskslC.PoliticaltaskslD.InternationaltasksHowcanNewLeadersimprovetheirLearningandDecision-makingCapability?lA. Collective Decision-making capability todealwithinternalaffairslB.ToimprovetheirDecision-
27、makingcapabilityingrandstrategicmatterslC. To improve their Crisis managementcapabilitylD.TobroadenlearningscopeHowcanNewLeaderssetupEffectiveDecision-makingInstitution?lA. To set up National Security CommitteeheadedbyPresidentofPRClB. To set up Economic Advisory CommitteeheadedbyPremierlC.TosetupCe
28、ntralAnti-CorruptionBureauKeyFactorsthatAffectChinasFuturelA.FundamentalFactors:demography,urbanization,resources,environment,scienceandtechnologylB.ExternalFactors:globaleconomy,globalization,theU.S.,Neighboringcountries,TaiwanlC.InternalFactors:localgovernance,socialconflicts, governmental legitim
29、acy, internalgapslD.OtherUncertainFactorsDifferentViewsonChinasFuturelA.StabilizationandPeacefulsuccessionlB.ComingCollapselC.Chinas ThreatenlD.Sevenevil-axescountrieslE.CautiousOptimismConclusionlTobetendencyofInstitutionalizedleadershipsuccession;thememberofpolitburowillbereplaced1/3,andthemembero
30、fstandingpolitburoreplaced1/2。lThedirectionofChinasfuturewillbetoself-sustainabledevelop,includingeconomicdevelopingandsocialprogress;moreopeningoutside,andactivelytakinginglobaleconomy,playingapositiveroleintheworld.lNewleadershavetoimprovetheircapacityoflearningandmakingdecisiontorespondbothdomesticandinternationalchallengesandintroducenewmechanismofdealingwithcrisis.lMostimportantconstructionisstate-building.Mostimportanthistoricalcontributionisthecontributionofinstitutionalconstruction.Thanks！
