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1、Lecture 1：宏观经济学介绍年秋宏观经济学介绍课件课程介绍宏观经济学介绍课件学习内容什么是宏观经济学为什么要研究宏观经济学宏观经济学的研究内容宏观经济学家怎样思考宏观经济学介绍课件1 什么是宏观经济学宏观经济学介绍课件什么是宏观经济学什么是经济学微观经济学：稀缺资源的配置回顾你学的管理经济学机会成本、边际、需求供给、博弈论、不对称信息等宏观经济学宏观经济学介绍课件经济学十条原则 人们怎么做决策人们面临权衡取舍People face tradeoffs.机会成本The cost of something is what you give up to get it.理性的人用边际概念思考Ra
2、tional people think at the margin.人们接受激励People respond to incentives.宏观经济学介绍课件TEN PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS 人们如何互相作用交易使得每个人变好Trade can make everyone better off.市场是组织经济活动的好方法Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity.政府有时候能够改进经济的结果Governments can sometimes improve economic outcomes.宏观
3、经济学介绍课件TEN PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS 经济作为整体. 生活水平取决于一个国家的生产能力The standard of living depends on a countrys production.当政府印刷太多货币的时候，价格水平会上升Prices rise when the government prints too much money.短期内，通货膨胀和失业有一个交替关系Society faces a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学为什么有衰退？政府
4、可以应对衰退吗为什么有通货膨胀金银是财富吗？生活水平的提高依赖于金银多少吗？政府赤字和税收对经济的影响是什么？中国出口太多吗汇率会升值吗货币太多吗为什么上海是贵州的12倍？美国是非洲某些国家的50倍？宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学是把经济作为一个整体来研究的经济学的一个分支。宏观经济学介绍课件2 为什么学习宏观经济学宏观经济学介绍课件与我们的生活息息相关商业决策所需要政治军事等的演进亦与宏观经济形势相关出于人类的好奇和求知的本性中国尤其需要宏观经济学尚不成熟，中国尤其宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学介绍课件许小年：中央政府需顶住压力，严控通胀，坚持紧缩发表时间： 2008年07月2
5、1日 16时49分 评论/阅读(/)本文地址： http:/ 宏观经济学介绍课件许小年：宏观调控解决不了微观问题发表时间： 2008年09月17日 17时12分 评论/阅读(/)本文地址： http:/ 许小年认为，这次货币政策的调整只是微调，不大可能从根本上改变整个经济和资本市场的基本面。后续货币政策大幅调整的可能性不大，因为银根过松可能导致通胀。如果市场对这次货币政策的微调持乐观态度，恐怕不久又会失望。 宏观经济学介绍课件机构视点野村证券：预测三季度GDP增长超9%交行研究部：预计11月CPI同比转正国泰君安：9月经济增速将较8月提升银河证券：四季度货币政策回归适度宽松海通证券：市场正提前
6、消化W型经济底长江证券：预计9月份用电量增速仍将上升分析评论更多厉以宁：通胀可能会来临姚景源：40年后中国人均GDP将达2.5万美元樊纲：宏观经济政策不能包治百病王庆：中国宏观经济受影响有限成思危：通货膨胀的预期已经形成哈继铭：预计CPI十一月转正 明年出口量将增长8%媒体评论中国证券报：通胀或将明年到来经济观察报：寻找中国经济新平衡点新闻晚报：四季度CPI或转正东方早报：四季度或将先抑后扬金融时报：宏观经济热度指数回升深圳商报：肉价加速跑与CPI负增长宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学介绍课件THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTIONTHE STATE
7、OF THE U.S. ECONOMY Washington, DC Wednesday, December 19, 2007Lawrence H. SummersRisks of Recession, Prospects for PolicyI am speaking here today because I believe that our current economic situationrequires a comprehensive program of measures to contain the fallout from problems in the financial a
8、nd housing sectors and to assure sufficient policy support for economic growth over the next several years. Perhaps because of a failure to appreciate the gravity of our current situation and the problems our political process has in responding quickly and collaboratively to emergent threats, such a
9、 comprehensive program is neither in place nor in immediate prospect.For the last year, the economic consensus, and the policy actions that have flowedfrom it, has been consistently behind the curve in recognizing the gravity of the problems in the housing and financial sectors and their consequence
10、s for the overall economy. This continues to be the case. In my view it is almost certain that we are headed for a period of heavily constrained growth, quite likely that the economy will experience a recession as technically defined and distinctly possible that we are headed into a period of the wo
11、rst economic performance since the stagflation of the late 1970s and recessions of the early 1980s宏观经济学介绍课件After a deep global recession, economic growth has turned positive, as wide-ranging public intervention has supported demand and lowered uncertainty and systemic risk in financial markets. None
12、theless, the recovery is expected to be slow, as financial systems remain impaired, support from public policies will gradually have to be withdrawn, and households in economies that suffered asset price busts will continue to rebuild savings. Risks to the outlook remain on the downside. Premature e
13、xit from accommodative monetary and fiscal policies is a particular concern because the policy-induced rebound might be mistaken for the beginning of a strong recovery. The key requirement remains to restore financial sector health while maintaining supportive macroeconomic policies until the recove
14、ry is on a firm footing. At the same time, policymakers need to begin preparing for an orderly unwinding of extraordinary levels of public intervention. Policies also need to facilitate a rebalancing of global demand, because economies that experienced asset price busts will need to raise saving rat
15、es, and there is a need to bolster potential growth in advanced economies, which has suffered as a result of the major financial shocks. Rising unemployment and setbacks to progress in poverty reduction pose social challenges that also must be addressed.宏观经济学介绍课件2008危机宏观经济学介绍课件3 宏观经济学的研究内容宏观经济学介绍课件G
16、DP失业和就业通货膨胀利率，还有呢宏观经济学介绍课件汇率进出口赤字货币供给宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学的两大主题长期经济增长短期宏观经济波动：衰退和繁荣宏观经济学介绍课件长期增长宏观经济学介绍课件长期经济增长宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学介绍课件持续的人均收入或产出的增长长期经济增长很重要是近代以来的事情一个国家2%，200年，多少倍1%呢宏观经济学介绍课件中国1800-1950，年均增长率-0.2%，天那我们在经济增长的部分，将详细探究经济增长的事实、规律和原因宏观经济学介绍课件经济波动围绕着长期增长趋势线波动宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学介绍课件增长和波动宏观经济学介绍课件U
17、.S. Real GDP per capita (2000 dollars)Great DepressionWorld War IIFirst oil price shockSecond oil price shocklong-run upward trend9/11/2001宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学介绍课件小结波动有无周期？波峰、波谷衰退和繁荣宏观经济学介绍课件通货膨胀和失业短期内交替关系长期内没有宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学介绍课件U.S. inflation rate(% per year)宏观经济学介绍课件U.S. unemployment rate(% of labor force)宏观经济学介绍课件 变化率变化率失业上升，工资下降？ 宏观经济学介绍课件我们要回答为什么波动，其机制如何宏观政策如何应对宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学如何思考问题：经济模型宏观经济学介绍课件宏观经济学家怎样工作？什么是经济模型？供需模型来思考石油市场宏观经济学介绍课件案例：石油市场宏观经济学介绍课件
