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1、国际贸易International Trade联系信息联系信息 Contact InformationInstructor 教师: 余淼杰博士Office办公室: 郎润园621Office Hours答疑时间: 周一15:30-16:30Email: Telephone: 6275-3109Fax: 6275-1475Course Web: http:/ 0d58b4b8 符皇 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.Integration of TradeThe World Is More Integrated Than Ever
2、Some facts are hidden. Industrial countries have increasing shares of their economies devoted to services rather than manufacturing.Make comparison from different views.Should measure merchandise trade relative to merchandise value-added. Almost all countries have experienced substantial growth in t
3、rade.Table 2Table 1.2 Merchandise Trade Relative to GDP and Merchandise Value-Added, 1960-1990 (percent)4-10Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.Table 1.1 U.S. Merchandise Trade by Industry, 2001, Shares of Total Trade and Production or Use (percentages)4-11Copyright 2007 Pears
4、on Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.Table 1.3 Percentage Distribution of Exports by Major Trading Groups, 1985-1998How to Explain Growing Trade?Trade LiberalizationGATT/WTORegional Trade Agreements: CUSFTA, NAFTA, CARICOM, CACM, MERCOSUR, ASEAN, SPARTECA.Falling Transportation Cost 2/5 trade grow
5、th can be explained by these two factors.When trading partners becomes more similar in size. - Example: World GDP=150; Scenario 1: Country A= 100; country B=25, country C=25Scenario 2: Country A= 50; country B=50, country C=50Maximum exports are different. Disintegration of ProductionDisintegration
6、of production itself leads to more trade due, in large part, to the calculation method.OutsourcingBarbie doll story (Tempest, 1996)Sell for about $10 in the U.S.Made in Mainland China, but export from Hong Kong for $265 cents cover materials cost, 35 cents pay for Chinese labor.The remaining 1$ for
7、transportation in ChinaThe remaining 7$ for transportation, marketing, wholesaling and retailing.$1 for the Mattel. OutsourcingFirst measurement: trade is categorized by the end-user.The U.S. trade shifts away from agriculture and raw materials, and towards manufactured goods in the U.S. trade.Proce
8、ssed manufactured goods play an increasing important role in U.S. trade.Outsourcing is important!U.S. firms have been substituting away from these processing activities at home.Outsourcing on the value-chainAnother measurement: imported intermediate goodsThe World is FlatVertical specification : ano
9、ther name of OutsourcingU.S. has a doubling of the share of imported inputs between 1975 and 1995 for all manufacturing.The U.K. shows an especially large absolute increase in foreign outsourcing.Chinas Current Trade PerformanceTrade GrowthTrade LiberalizationAccede to the WTOTrade PatternIncrease o
10、f the inward FDICCER, Dr. Miaojie YuGATT/WTO MembersCCER, Dr. Miaojie YuTrade OpennessChina became the 143rd member of the GATT/WTOChina keeps a large trade surplus.Trade openness is $2,170 billion, which is more than 63% of current GDP in 2007The third largest one in the worldCurrent Export is $969
11、 billion and import is $ 792 billion.So trade surplus is $177 billion in 2006.CCER, Dr. Miaojie YuDramatic Increase in OpennessCCER, Dr. Miaojie YuTrade OpennessChinas Current Trade SituationCurrent trade openness is around 64% of GDP.Chinas share in world trade has grown steadily since 1979.Chinas
12、TradeChina has increased its penetration into rich countries market.Chinas TradeChinas TradeSimultaneously, it also becomes a more important export destination.Chinas TradeChinas role in Asian Regional TradeChina is now among the most important export destinations for other Asian economiesStrong Exp
13、ort Potential Forward in ChinaChinas integration with the world economy so far is not unprecedented in either its scope or speed.Compared to Japan, Korea, and other NIEs in their fast development period, Chinas exports have grown at a slower rate than theirs.This suggests that China could maintain r
14、elatively high strong export growth for years to come.Composition of TradeDiversify from an initial heavy reliance on textile and other light manufacturing.In the early 1990s, exports profiles rank as follows: light manufacturing, textile, machinery and transport (small electronics).Today, China exp
15、orts more sophisticated electronics, furniture, travel goods, and industrial supplies.Intra-Industry TradeSources: database of China CustomsCCER, Dr. Miaojie YuOutsourcing in ChinaTrade BalanceChina keeps a modest overall trade surplus.China has significant trade surplus from trade with the U.S.But
16、it was offset by an increasing trade deficit with the rest of Asia.Sino-U.S. Bilateral TradeThis year China reaches a $144 billion trade surplus with the U.S.Simultaneously, more than 3 million workers lost their jobs.Congressmen in the U.S. threat to perform trade sanction with China.Impose 27.4% h
17、igh tariffs.Push RMB revaluate strongly and quickly. Pending the permanent most favored nation (MFN) treatment.QuestionsEconomically speaking, is it deficit necessary bad for the deficit country, and good for the surplus country?Any essential link between the blue-worker unemployment and trade defic
18、it?Is it credible for the U.S. congressional threat?Trade Deficit is not necessarily bad!Check the basic trade identity: Trade Deficit=Net Inflow of Foreign CapitalTrade deficit is like borrowing money from foreigners.The key point is how to use.Investment or Consumption?Historical stories in 1980s,
19、 1990s, and 2000s.Trade Deficit itself is not BadTrade deficit means financing from other countries.How to use such money? Consume it? Invest it?CCER, Dr. Miaojie YuTrade Surplus is not necessarily good!Statistically, it is good for GDP calculation.But GDP does not mean anything!Export Booming and P
20、roductivity ImprovementThe termination of Multilateral Fiber Agreement (MFA) in 2005.Green GDPThe Far Cry from U.S. WorkersAny essential link between the blue-worker unemployment and trade deficit?No.The elasticity of substitution between Chinese export and other Asian countries export is very high.
21、The essential reason for huge unemployment is due to the economy recession in years 2001-2003 in the U.S.The Congressional ThreatIt is incredible.The U.S. does not have any right to terminate our permanent MFN treatment.They dont dare to uni-laterally impose high tariffs on Chinese textile and garme
22、nts.It violates the WTO principles.It worse the U.S. itself due to the elasticity of exports and imports.It already gets historical lesson from the stupid policy.RMB Appreciation Helps?CCER, Dr. Miaojie YuRMB Appreciation Helps?China appreciates its RMB around 20% within 3 years CCER, Dr. Miaojie Yu
23、RMB Appreciation Helps?Change in exchange rate might help reduce the bilateral trade deficit, but cannot reduce the U.S. whole deficit. Trading pattern in China and the ASEAN-10 are quite similar. U.S. has to import similar products at a higher cost.The revaluation may not translate into significant
24、 higher prices for Chinese products sold in the U.S.China firms may cut their profit margins to maintain their price instead.Even if prices go up, U.S. consumers may be slow to switch to competing producers from other countries, which causes more trade deficit in the short run.CCER, Dr. Miaojie YuWh
25、at do we study in Trade? Gains from TradeEach trading country gainsWithin a country, some gain but some losePattern of TradeWho trade with whom for what?Inter-sectional v.s. intra-sectional tradeGovernment Effect of Policy on TradeMultinational Cooperation and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)Traditio
26、nal Trade TheorySmiths Absolute AdvantageRicardian Comparative AdvantageHeckscher-Ohlin TheoryViners Specific Factors ModelKrugmans Increasing Returns to Scale ModelFeenstras Product Variety ModelMelitzs Intra-industry Trade Top 10 Research Topics (Theoretical & Empirical) Heckscher-Ohlin Model (Leo
27、ntief Paradox)Trade in Intermediate Goods, Wages, and OutsourcingIncreasing Returns and the Gravity EquationGains from Trade and Regional Trade AgreementImport Tariffs and NTBs ( Dumping, Quotas, and Subsidies)International Political Economy of Trade PolicyTrade and Endogenous GrowthMultinationals and Organization of the FirmTrade and EnvironmentTrade and Geography Top World-class Trade EconomistsTheoryBhagwatiGrossmanHelpmanKrugmanStaigerMelitzEmpiricsBaldwinFeenstraLeamerTreflerBlonigen
