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1、1/29 2019 (X) 1(2.3. X ) 4.(J ) 52000-2014(7)1.X) 1X) 2.3.)4.fitb. fitD.tnwM18.ABCE A.B.C.E.19.12PQffittSP（CD Dm C. D.20.ACDA.C.D.1ABC ）A.B.C.2. Y=76-l. S5X（ACE）A.1001.S5c. StE.20072. 3 127il6/29 ilil3. iftfittejfi：fitfitfit4. fitfit5. fit6. Stfitfit7. y “Exbab,yycQ = 22（y - ”）=y Hb1.fitilifitH2fitf
2、itfitfitfibfitfitfit3. 4. （1）（2）7/29 5. fitfitfitfitfitfit6. il7St（2）（3）（4）81910. （1）fitfitfitStfit（2）ffiMWfitfib （3）fit8tfibStfit （4）fitfitStfitfitfitIfitb7b12. 12312313fit（3）fit2）（3）（14. fitil8/29 1. fitfit2. 1 40302t12 3644403T1335372515291331361931；733133S12322530.529313S16133935：0IS33272S 1）25-
3、30. 30-35. 34-40,45-50.（1）4025-30117.530-35S20.035-40922.510-151025.045-50615.010100.0 2）（217.5%15%.2.1A92002- 5300B51006300C1010012120 750+1800+1440 600+1500+1200 = 120.91% /A/I -MI =3990-3300 = 690 600+1500+1200=9705% 400+2000+1000 2L oQ（）= 3900-3400 = 590 750+1800+1440 = I174% 400+2000+1000 =3990
4、-3400 = 590 9/29 196020131306126972S66344Mil W- 2013 136072100111.746972S51. 24 663111S. 76 35075.61095.45%hn=50 o=10 X=75.6 z=2 （1） nx=an=1050=1.4142 Ax = zpx = 2 X 1.4142 = 2.8286 x Ax = 75.6 2.8286 95. 15%：72.777S. 13F : 1011 1513 20CC0I =1 F13102% + 105% + 100% + 13 + 22 46-45=1 43009%2005210020
5、00St700 J?.2005S00ft2000-2005（1）2000an 2100 （2） 200020052000X=700X2008=140.45 2005=800X2100=168 （3） 2000-2005 5.20052010fitm2005 20062007200S20092010300 50 11 + 13+22 q168 140.56 =119.52 10/29 2005 20062007200S20092010300330335350367.5319. 125 30355067.549. 125 10101.5104. 51C595 1.WiM JLL20-302030-
6、105010-5030 tfi(x)4/Z/) 20-30252050 30-40355017. 5 40-50553013. 5 10036.0 il2. 200220011057 200220011165.2002116% =100%.2002110%.1E.105% 3. 2009200S954.200S90%.200990%=91. 71%.200991. 71%. 5. 26%.95%4. 2009200S5%16%20091 + 16% =110%1+5% 10105 95 11/29 5.2009200S5%2009il1-10% =91. 74%1-5% 6. 103%5103
7、=105%-r （l*x） x=l. 9%.I：1. 9 =1035=105X.=17. I5400iiJlSOO12256S. 06iiJlSOO172095. 56FiiJlSOO266511S. 0651005610101 5610 （ - =104*）,68. 06%. F148. 06M5400 Ms. 2001 20022003 2004 20052?346SS39510529302330410 410 68 + 95+1()5 + 29 + 3()+28 + 410 4109511 12/29 r rAM S S fit101320241111121313141115at 13
8、+ 14 + 14 + 15 3 5412fit 51J10.10X60K50560-S07025S09010 * 10 50x5 + 70x25 + 90x10 x T 40 il WJHx 126S10305g-J = 6x3O% + 8x5O%+ 10x20% = 7.8（ X60K5025060-S0701750S090900 290011250 + 1750 +9007 = ZT= 2501750 90x 50 70 90=72.5（ = 72.5（ 13/29 ML14. 1990fit 1.21.291. 12.S11.51.51 5.54 1.2 + 2.8+1.5 =1.2
9、2.8 1.5 4 + 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2x2 + 1.4xl + l.lxl =1J= 4 50.Rfit25?6：fit90-10095 1200100-110105712300110-12011532000 1140+13440 +2300 1140 13440 2300 - H - + - 95% 105% 115% = 105.5% il95%x2 + 105%x7 + 115%x3 12 = 105.83% I= 1.375（ = 1.325（ 1312514/29 5% Jftffj 25%15(17. S%)(20. 5%), %It%3505S7020501020
10、10200335025150301530509363006021S60010012320.5500100S917. S 92%( ) 600Ig.609616fitF 17326. 13.3 6% “2.6% StH172005(1) (2) 95. 45%(=2) 1OS n = 200_xl00% = 97.5% 200 （1 95. 3EWPW99. 7% 1.1%95.9599. THZfuJ.ZQ, =2X1. 1=2. % P = pS =97. 5 2. 2% 18. (1) (2) 5%2U) 0. 975%,5%5L 25%=25% 19. (1)43？(2)25VO.O37
11、5 JO.2375 = 0.4 (1)nb 16 16 =n 9 20400020080. 9515 (1=2)1115/29 U = (2)75%25100%/ V5%pn=? 2 b 16/29 N-1000. n=200 z=2. p = =0.04 200 u = 0.960 0125 Y n I NV 200 I 4000 Z =2x0.0125 = 0.027 p = p Sp = 0.04 0.027 1.3“. 7% fit=4000X1. 3h-1000X6. 7%52V6S（ 2121U 100 fit609S095. 15h 0=2）ilEfitn = 40000/= 4
12、00,609b = 80, z = 2 b 80 4 4= Z =2x4 = 8 X = X 609-3 W X 609*8601fl7（ 1ft601X 20000-617 X 20000 12027234（ 22. 15011S-11910149-15020150-15150151-15220 99. 73h （tx3）I（2）IfVA-X（x-X）11S. 51014851.S32. 1149. 52029900. S12. S150. 55075250.22151. 52030301.223.310015030 7617/29 .50.3（ v = Z “ = 3 x 0.0868 =
13、 0.26 x = x = 150.3 0.26 150. 04-150. 56 99. 7fit150. 01-150. 56fit（2） 2=3 =Z =3x 0.0456 = 0.0137 p = p0.7 0.0137 6S. 63%-71. 37% 99. 7368. 63W 37%23. 5001 7595Zli 175 1 n=500 D = - =35% D（z）=95% t=l. 96 n 500 =0.0213 2013 % n V 500 Z P =1.96x0.0213 = 0.0418 0. 35P. 0US-0. 35+0. 01 IS U|J 30. SS-39.
14、 2% 5%.5% 572.13% F （t） =98. 07%8. 07%. 24. 0.9515 （t=2S0%）?=0.873 _ |S（xxj / _ ki 0.872（_%）= 0 0868 18/29 t = 2 /? = 2% p=SOh n=? 25. 50001RT 1000S795i|0. 02N=5000 n=100 D = = 0.2175 400 |02175x07825f 400 ( F(z)=35%1.96 Z = Z pp =1. 96x0. 019S=0. 033S P=p A/) =21. 755 3. SS% 17. S%-25. 6% 1.96X 500
15、0 x 0.2175 x 0.7825 5000 x 0.02+ 1.96x 0 2715 x0.7825 26 fit 173C372347113735169656S（D 1000（3）6000FIfit 22 XyXy f p(l - p) 2 x 02 x 0.8 A p 0.022 = 1600 = 1232( 19/29 1O3156?34315737271736968916916255329518450115329176146241162162S121927631021126793026S1IS1（1） 6x1481 - 21x426 A；(6x79-212) 6x30268-42
16、& / = 0.9091 （2=a + bx1484-21x426/6 b = - = - Zx-(ZX)2/ 79-21 St10001. 82（3）fit6000*6y =77.37 - 1.82x6 = 66.45（ fit6000664527.2005-200720052411200630152007321440 （X）xy 19S3241126457619S1301515090019S532111481021 /iXx-(x)lfiXy2-(yy)2 = -0.9091 20/29 X=86Er=40xz162XX =250( my 1162-1x86x40 h = - =0.44
17、Zx-(sx)2 2500-X862 n = = -0.44 x = 0.72 n n 3 3 ffiy =0.72 + 044*10y = 0.72 + 0.44x =o. -2*0.4ixio=is. 32（ 4018. 322S.S6004290I11. 5bfit P）= 8600（=8600 + 4290= 12890（ L = 100% +11.5% = 111.5% 149.9% qm 8600 = 134.4% q P“ = E% A) X134.4% = 8600x 134.4% = 11561( 149.9% 111.5% = 134.4% = 111.5% qR =115
18、6( 21/29 149. 55X131. 4% Z qPrZ q PH/qR-Z q0P 4 P? 12S90-S600= （12S90-1156” （11561-S90O） 1290=2961*1329 49.9%34. 4%.11. 5%429029611329ffiVfffl1429il W： 1ft（2） 2000240015100120500450 fitP： 012400X4+120X500 = 69600 = I20% 2400x4+100x500 58000 s qQ E q = 6960-5sooo=ii 6oa BP：ntMJu H600=SP, = 2400X5 +12
19、0x450 = 66000 = 94 g3% 4 P 2400x4 + 120x500 69600 qg P - 66000- 69600 = -3600（ 5. 17%36003019S1fit19S323%S%, 19S3500012002100019S1fit19S3fitAt_XK,P0_ 102% x 5000 +105% x 12000 +108% x 24000 5000+12000+24000 fitDLP 43620 41000 = 106.39% 22/29 qP = （1800-1500） x 230 = 69000（ p- pjq=（210-230）xl800 = -3
20、6000（ qP_qpqz q P. 109. 57%=120%X91. 3% 19S4fit19S36. 39% st=q（）p0=13620-11000=2620（ 2% x 5000 +5%xl 2000 + 8%x 24000 5000+12000+24000 31.19S119S3106H 94%. 110%. 719S ISOOOO2500011000 *18000+25000+14000 80000/106% + 25000/94% + 14000/110% 119600 114795 = 103.66% 4 P 4 P T 1960-114795 = 4805 K 15001S
21、OO230210 q p - q p = 378000-34500 = 33000（ 1800 1500 = 120% g = ?!2 D 230 = 91.3% 32tfiwffltm23/29 qq p0qhph 33000=69000-36000 9. 57%.S.33000fit6900036000fitfitfit33. 199019S913.6%.9%1990=(1+12.9)-r (1+13. 6%) =99. 3SS 199019S90. 62%, 12. 313. 694. S5%.34. 15%=100S-r (1155)=36. 96S 86. 96100% ：1596：
22、 66. 67%.35fit5052045600120200110500 E P, 600 x 45 + 500 x 110 82000 = 164%q pi 520x50 + 200x120 50000 Pu = 82000- 50000 = 32000（600x50 + 500xl20 = 90000 = I80% 520x50 + 200x120 50000 atg q“ p = 90000-50000 = 40000(91% 90000 qPqP 82000-90000=-8000（qp_24/29 qP _ qPqP - - - - - X - qpqp161%=1SO%X91S q
23、pq pp qp -P）32000=lOOOO-SOOO 6fitSgfit10000SOOO13200036.1990fit28%.15%.200020001990fit?12IIM（1991-1995）108%Xi = 115% = nrh = 1 200a = a = 2xl08；l15 = 5.19（ 20001990200019904”00=2X 4=S7in=10 X-1 = 1|-1 = 15-1 = 0.15 /1JJ4231353236333S37. 200SI ：6H - 2 S 2 /I-1 _ + 34 + 35 + 32 + 36 + 33 + 2 2 71 = 30
24、（ m 591225325026025S256 3S.1Z7 25/29 x2 +x2 +x5 +3 2 2 2 2 12 39.200941H411：!416511210124013001270 1210x10+1240x5 + 1300x15 30 511270416130043040. 4567150 200 210 276 45 55 15 75 )/(1) 3. 69X3=11. 07) H 1 (150+200+ 240)3 (4575) 55 + 45+ 3122 = 3.69 I _g.lh=257(A) = 1260( 150 + 200 + 240 55+45 3 12 2
25、 = 11.07 26/29 II 130418ISO500120125150150 bebb 430 x 120% + 448x125% + 480 x 150% + 500x150% - =137.03% 430+448 + 480 + 500 12.il 2502722713231S50205019502150 250+272 + 271 1 QC + 2050+1950 + 2 2150 =0.1322 =1322 13.ft 198419S3105%. 19S519S I10319S61985106%.19S6fit1983 105%X103X106%=114. 61%. 19S61
26、9S3114. 64 44199019S32%199119903%199219911. 6199219S9 r1990 19S9 98%（100%-2%） . 1991 1990 971001992 1991 9S. 1% （100%-!. 6%）. 1992 1989 9S%X97%X9S. 4%=93. 5 1%19S9 6. 46%. 2W3%X1. 69.666060-7070-S080-9090-100 27/29 1020CC10S95. 15%I（15 -2X 7660 X =-= - S/ 100 =t1 =2x1377 = 2.2754 76. 6-2.2754 X W76.
27、 6*2.2754 74.32W X W7S.S9 467X（Y795 72925 y = 1065 y2 = 121475 93200 （1） it（2）D /=0. 96fit（2）y =a + bx a. b： -07 7y =36.54 + 0.88% 21. = 76.6 b _ 11.377 = 1.1377 7 - (z yj= 0.96 28/29 2013 2014 JUSOO1502000020011000100105003001118025011430500（1） （2）1tfi*100S2013 2014 15060200101001030060250100500100
28、（2）201120135060S10%.1060%22. 100195. 4% （z=26t n=100. p=l/100=4%. z=2 W = Zpp = 2x 0.0196 = 0.039 pV = 0.04 0.039 0. 1-7. 9ZMJ23. 5n=5 x=10 Ey=310 E:：=370 y:=20700 Exy=2740 （1）fit（2）（1）yc=a + bx2740-X40X310 - - = 5.20 370 x 40? 5 = y-/?x = lx310-5.20x|x40 = 20.40 20.40 + 5.20%（2） XyZ24. at10012020501060605 il （1）（2） 2740-1x40x310 _ _5 370-|X402 -20700-|X3102 = 0.96 29/29 fit=234 210 = 24（ 10 + 4& + 60 = 100 + 50 + 60 0% =226-210=16（ i）at（） _ 1.2 x 100+ 1.02x50+ 1.05x60 ;?0（70 100 + 50 + 60 234 = 111.43% 210
