CHEMICALSSCORECARD：JULYSCORECARD0813

《CHEMICALSSCORECARD：JULYSCORECARD0813》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《CHEMICALSSCORECARD：JULYSCORECARD0813（80页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。

1、Top picksBuyBuyDeutsche BankMarkets ResearchNorth AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsChemicals/CommodityJuly ScorecardPeriodicalChemicalsScorecardDate10 August 2012David Begleiter, CFAResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-EMN: Q2 strong & 12 guidance solid. Valuation compelling at 10.3x 12E EPS.Eastman posted a

2、strong Q2 beat and reaffirmed 12 guidance of $5.30(consensus: $5.26). In Q2, strength in Eastmans legacy businesses offset lowerthan expected results at Solutia amid euro impacts and weakness in Europeanarchitectural/auto and solar. With Eastman demonstrating resilience in adifficult macro environme

3、nt, synergy targets on track and the $5B Solutiaacquisition transforming Eastman into a high-margin, high growth and morepredictable differentiated chemical company, we believe Eastmans 10.3xcurrent year (2012) P/E multiple will expand toward a differentiated peerRamanan SivalingamAssociate Analyst(

4、 ) 212 250-Ashland (ASH.N),USD71.17Celanese Corp (CE.N),USD39.98multiple of 11.8x as it delivers on its earnings potential. Buy.Ashland: Stable earnings profile continues to be validated. Reiterate BuyIn our view, Ashlands FQ3 provided further evidence of the enhanced earningsconsistency (despite ma

5、cro headwinds) of the companys specialty chemicalportfolio following the ISP acquisition. While Specialty Ingredients (60% ofEBITDA) has over-earned YTD, reflecting escalating guar prices, we expectcontinued steady performance as guar headwinds are offset by growth in thesegments diverse offerings i

6、nto coatings, pharma, and personal care markets.With solid demand momentum carrying thru July, lower base oil costsrepresenting a $28MM, or $0.25, tailwind in FQ4, and valuation an attractive9.7x 13E EPS, we reiterate our Buy rating.Celanese: Acetyls position intact. Ethanol on the way. Valuation at

7、tractive. BuyDespite Celanese lowering its 2012 guidance following its Q2 release, theoutlook was not as bad as some had feared (or hoped) and the CEO stated thathe thought the company was “close to some (ethanol) announcements” inChina. While we lowered our 12 and 13E EPS by 9% and 11%, respectivel

8、y,we are maintaining our Buy rating as we believe i) Celanese maintains atechnology-based, globally lowest cost position in acetyls, ii) Celaneseproprietary TCX ethanol technology could be a game changer with $1/shr ofearnings in 16E, and iii) valuation is attractive at 8.6x 13E EPS.Absolute valuati

9、ons look reasonable, but macro weakness may limit upsideTodays 13.2x fwd P/E multiple for US Chemicals (ex-agricultural) is 11% belowthe 15-yr avg. Although we view relative valuation (currently 4% below theS&P 500 vs. a 15-yr avg. discount of 14%) as warranted given structurally lowfeedstock costs

10、(ethane near a 10-yr low), we view further multiple expansionas unlikely until fears of Eurozone contagion and slowing global GDP growthsubside.Valuation & forecastsWe value companies in the chemicals sector based on: 1) forward P/Emultiples (vs. historical ranges and the market); 2) forward EV/EBIT

11、DAmultiples (where leverage diverges from that of peers, also vs historicalaverages); 3) our calculation of cash return on cash invested and the strongcorrelation (R270%) we have found between chemical sector valuations andreturns on capital. Risks to forecasts include rises in energy, raw materials

12、, n-tinterest rates or sharp improvement in end-market demand (see p. 73-75)._Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sour

13、ced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report

14、 as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardTable Of ContentsStock performance. 3Current valuations. 6Forward company valuations. 15Growth & prof

15、itability . 29Leverage, liquidity & capital . 49Valuation & Risks . 73Valuation & Risks . 74Page2Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.MON12%11%LYBCEAGU KROMOSCYTMONEMNPPGFMCASHSHWPOTS&P500ChemicalsROCAPDDDRPMHUNALBOLN(0%)(0%)(2%)(2%)(2%)(2%)(3%)CBTVALECLFULPXCMPARGDOWFOE(36%)(4%)(4%)(4%)(5%)(5%)(5%)(6%)(9%)

16、4%3%2%2% 2% 1% 1%0%4%5%7%7%7%10%11%WLK14%GGC28%13%SHW MOS9%8%7%5%4%3%1%(1%)(1%) (1%)(2%) (3%)(3%)(4%)(5%)(5%)(6%)(7%) (7%)(9%)(10%) (10%)(11%)(11%)(13%)(14%)(19%)(21%)AGULYBASH PPGPOTECLRPM FMCS&P500VALOLN EMN CYTChemicalsCMP APDDDWLK GGCCBTPXHUNALB FULARGDOWROCCEKRO(28%)FOE(41%)10 August 2012Chemic

17、als/CommodityChemicals ScorecardStock performanceFigure 1: Ranking by July performance40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset; include dividendsFigure 2: Ranking by 3-month performance (May, 2012- July, 2012)20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)Source: Deutsche Bank, Factse

18、t; include dividendsDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page3SHW77%SHWCYT PPGAGU FMC VALASHECLCBT RPMMONS&P500LYBEMN MOSFULChemicalsWLK ARG HUN CMPDDPXPOTGGCOLN APD ALBROCDOWCEKROFOE(55%)(1%) (1%)(5%)(6%)(7%) (7%)(9%)(12%)(13%)(22%)(25%)18%17%12%9% 9%8%5% 5% 5% 5% 5%3%2% 2% 1% 1%0%19%24%24%39%GGC56%34%33%3

19、3%30%29%26%18%18%16%15%11%11%10%7% 6%2% 2%1%(0%)(6%)(7%)(11%)(14%)(17%)(23%)(26%)(31%)(31%)64%VALLYBPPGECLRPMFULFMCMON ARGASHWLKCYT EMN AGUS&P500ChemicalsPXCBT OLNDDCMP APD ALBDOWMOSPOTROCCEHUN KRO(44%)FOE(76%)10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 3: Ranking by 6-month performan

20、ce (February, 2012- July, 2012)60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)(80%)Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset; includes dividendsFigure 4: Ranking by 12-month performance100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)(80%)(100%)Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset; includes dividendsPage4Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01J

21、an-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11AGUALBVALASHCYTGGCOLNCEDOWMOSROCSHWWLKCMPFMCHUNRPMEMNPPGFOECBTDDPXPOTECLFULJan-1210 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 5: Chemicals sector index 10-year performance (January 1999-Present)250230210190170150130110907050S&P

22、 Chems IndexXLB Materials Select Sector SPDRS&P 500DB U.S. Chemicals Universe IndexSource: Deutsche Bank, FactsetNote: S&P Chems Index includes: APD, ASH, DD, DOW, ECL, EMN, HPC, IFF, MON, PPG, PX, ROH, SIAL (as of Oct 2006). DB U.S. Chemicals Universe includes 45 chemical names covered by team and

23、selected ascomps contact team for further detailsFigure 6: Chemicals short interest as of days volume and % of float30%181625%1420%121015%810%645%20%Source: Factset First Call estimatezsDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Days Short Interest (RHS)% of Float (LHS)-Page512.212.011.311.211.09.3 9.3 9.39.0SHWM

24、ONCMPECLSHWCYTARGPXFOE FMCDOWVALAPDRPMPPGFULMOSWLKPOTGGCCBTALBDD15.414.814.613.813.413.0 12.912.6 12.612.2 12.111.711.1ASHOLN10.9ROCCEEMNLYBKROHUN6.56.18.210.39.99.915.615.715.918.419.420.921.021.821.923.1MONECLCMPPXFMCARGVALPPG8.78.48.18.07.9 7.97.77.67.66.8 6.86.76.46.26.15.85.34.94.84.7 4.74.5POT

25、RPMAPDCYTAGUDDALBDOWEMN MOSFULCEASHROCWLKCBTFOEOLNLYBKROGGCHUN10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardCurrent valuationsFigure 7: Ranking by 2012E P/E2520151050Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 8: Ranking by 2012E EV/EBITDA14121086420Source: De

26、utsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage6Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.19.918.717.416.916.315.613.913.813.413.1 13.112.811.5 11.511.211.010.910.810.79.99.89.89.69.38.38.27.66.86.8ALBARGVALCYTAPDASHOLNWLKMONGGCCMPFMCLYBCEDOWRPMMOSROCEMNSHWAGUSHWMONPPGPXECL11.110.410.210.210.19

27、.78.78.58.47.77.67.37.37.27.06.76.56.16.16.16.05.95.85.34.94.74.4KRO4.2HUNPPGFOEFULDDPXPOTCBTECL6.14.0FOEVALASHDDALBROCCYTLYBARGKROAPDCBTOLNCEDOWGGCMOSWLKPOTCMPFMCRPMEMNFUL3.810 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 9: Ranking by 2013E P/E222018161412108642Source: Deutsche Bank Sec

28、urities Inc. estimates and company information; based on month-end share priceFigure 10: Ranking by 2013E EV/EBITDA12111098765432Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information; based on month-end share priceDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page717.3%13.7%11.2%10.6%7.9%7.1%7.0%6.

29、2%6.2%5.7%5.6%5.0%4.8%4.6%4.2%4.2%3.7%3.5%3.2%3.0%2.9%2.2%1.9%1.5%0.9%(0.2%) (0.2%)(3.0%)FOEASHVALLYBALBDDROCARGCYTCBTKROSHWGGCWLKMONDOWRPMCMPHUNFMCMOSEMN34.6%24.0%20.7%23.4%18.8%18.5%15.2%14.9%14.3%14.1%11.2% 11.2%11.0%10.8%12.4%8.5% 8.5% 8.4%8.2%8.2%8.0%7.8%6.8%6.5%6.1%6.0%7.2%4.0%LYBALBVALARGASHO

30、LNCYTGGCMONWLKDOWRPMSHWMOSROCKROEMNCMPFMCHUNPPGAPDFOECEDDCBTFULPOTECLPX1.9%3.7%APDCEPPGPOTPXECLFUL(3.6%)10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 11: Ranking by 2012E free cash flow yield (defined as free cash flow per share divided by share price)20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%(2%)(4%

31、)(6%)(8%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information. Based on month end share price.Figure 12: Ranking by 2012E free cash flow yield II (defined as EBITDA-capex divided by share price)40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company in

32、formation. Based on month end share pricePage8Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.7.65.44.94.34.94.23.73.63.63.43.43.63.13.12.72.42.12.12.02.01.91.91.71.61.51.41.41.5VALASHDDARGSHWCMPMONFMCPOTPPGPXECLALBLYBROCAPDCYTGGCWLKKROOLN4.4%4.0%3.6%3.4%3.2%3.2%2.9%2.8%2.7%2.2%2.1%2.0% 2.0%1.6% 1.5% 1.5%1.5%1.3%1.2%1

33、.1%1.0%0.9%0.8%0.6%DOWRPMMOSEMN0.6%HUN0.6%CELYBVALARGALBOLNAPDMONASHCMPCYTDOWRPMFMCHUNDDPXSHWMOSROCKROCBT CBTECLFULPPGPOT0.5%FOECBTCEFUL0.51.210 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 13: Ranking by 2012E price/book876543210Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company

34、 information. Based on month end share priceFigure 14: Ranking by 2012E dividend yield5%5%4%4%3%3%2%2%1%1%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information; based on month end share priceDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page94.63.43.32.62.42.22.22.02.01.61.51.81.31.31.31.21.21.21

35、.11.01.01.00.90.90.90.60.60.80.5VALASHALBROCARGSHWWLKKROCYTAPDOLNLYBMON25.4%22.0%14.9%14.5%11.7%12.3%10.4%9.8%9.3%7.4%7.3%7.1%6.7% 6.6%7.4%5.5% 5.5%5.1% 5.0%4.6%DOWMOS4.2%3.4%ASHFOELYBDDROCALBKROARGOLNSHWGGCWLKPOTCBTCEDOWMOSFMCHUNPPGEMNFULECLPX1.7%3.0%GGCPOTCMPFMCRPMEMNHUNPPGFOEDDPXECLCBTCEFUL0.310

36、August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 15: Ranking by 2012E EV/Sales543210Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 16: Ranking by 2013E free cash flow yield (defined as free cash flow per share divided by share price)30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: De

37、utsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage10Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.34.9%32.3%23.1%22.2%19.8%19.0%18.4%17.2%16.8%16.4%14.4%14.2%13.7%13.1%12.8%12.2%11.6%10.9%11.5%9.8%9.8%9.8%9.3%9.2%8.8%8.1%7.8%7.2%5.1%FOE0.4LYBALBASHVALOLNCYTGGCARGWLKDOWMONCMPFOEHUNRPMFMCMOSEMNROCKRO6.4

38、5.04.54.03.73.43.63.23.13.02.82.42.42.72.11.91.91.91.81.71.51.41.41.41.6SHWPPG1.31.1VALARGROCKROSHWMONGGCWLKCMPFMCDOWMOSEMNHUNASHDDPPGPXECLALBLYBCYTAPDOLNPOTCBTCEFUL1.1APDCEDDFULCBTPOTECLPX3.5%10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 17: Ranking by 2013E free cash flow yield II (de

39、fined as EBITDA-capex divided by share price)40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information. Based on month-end stock priceFigure 18: Ranking by 2013E price/book76543210Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche B

40、ank Securities Inc.Page113.9LYBDOWDDOLN RPM HUNROC CMP KROAPD PPGPXCBTARG EMN2.3% 2.2%2.1% 2.0%1.9%MOS1.8%MONVAL ALB ECLSHWASHCYTFULFMC POTCE1.6% 1.6%1.4%1.3%1.2%1.0% 1.0%0.8%0.6% 0.6% 0.6%2.9%2.9%3.0%3.1%3.2%3.5%4.0%4.2%4.4%10.4%POT3.33.02.42.22.22.01.91.71.61.51.41.31.21.21.11.11.10.90.90.9PXMONCM

41、PAPDFMCECLMOSALBARGSHWPPG CYTDDVALROCCERPMCBT ASHOLNFUL0.9WLK0.9DOW0.8EMN0.8KRO0.7LYB0.6HUN0.6GGC0.5FOE0.310 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 19: Ranking by 2013E dividend yield12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 20: Ra

42、nking by 2013E EV/Sales543210Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage12Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.POT3.9MONPOTMONPXMOSCMPFMCALBAPDECLCYTSHWARGDDVALPPGWLK ROCEMNCERPMKRO1.61.41.31.11.11.11.01.00.90.90.90.8OLNCBTFULASHLYBDOWGGCHUNFOE0.30.30.10.80.80.80.70.60.61.61.

43、81.92.02.32.32.83.44.43.12.62.12.12.01.71.61.61.41.31.21.21.11.10.90.90.90.80.80.80.8PXCMPMOSFMCALBAPDECLSHWCYTARGPPG VALDDWLKROCRPMCEEMNOLNKROFUL0.7CBT0.7ASH0.7LYB0.6DOW0.6GGC0.3HUN0.3FOE0.110 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 21: Ranking by 2012E Price/sales543210Source: Deut

44、sche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 22: Ranking by 2013E Price/sales543210Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page13POTHUNPOTRPMMON KROFMCMOSGGCLYBROCSHWALBPPGDDVALECLEMN OLNASHCEARGCMPPXWLKCBTDOWFUL(0.2%)C

45、YT(0.3%)7.6%7.3%7.0%6.9%6.6%6.3%5.8%5.8%5.2%4.8%4.6%3.9%3.4%2.4%1.9%1.7%1.7%8.2%8.6%9.6%9.9%14.1%15.4%16.6%18.2%21.0%29.0%25.8%16.2%11.9%11.5% 11.4% 11.4%11.2% 11.0%9.3%8.9%8.6%8.2%7.9%7.3%7.1%6.4%6.3% 6.2%5.8%5.5%4.6%4.4% 4.4% 4.2%3.0%2.3% 2.2%MOSHUN RPM CMP KRO ARG MONOLNLYBALBECLEMNDDFULVALPPGCEF

46、MC ROCGGC ASHPXSHWWLKFOEDOWCBTCYT(1.1%)APD(5.0%)10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 23: Ranking by 2012E free cash flow/sales24%21%18%15%12%9%6%3%0%(3%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 24: Ranking by 2013E free cash flow/sales35%30%

47、25%20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage14Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12121086410

48、 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardForward company valuationsFigure 25: DB U.S. Chemicals Universe P/E ratio, January (1991-Present)24300%Average NTM P/E22201815yr avg. = 14.7Jul-12 = 11.5250%200%Current: 11.53-year: 13.15-year: 13.11614150%10-year: 14.215yr avg. vs. S&P =85%Jul-12 =

49、89%100%50%0%Average Relative P/ECurrent: 89%3-year: 98%5-year: 97%10-year: 94%Chemicals NTM P/E vs. S&P 50015-year average NTM P/EChemicals NTM P/E15-year average NTM P/E vs. S&P 500Source: FirstCall Consensus, FactsetNote: NTM EPS based on FirstCall consensusFigure 26: S&P 500 NTM consensus P/E (19

50、91-Present)353025Average NTM P/ECurrent: 12.83-year: 13.45-year: 13.410-year: 15.120151020-year m edian=16.6590 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Source: Factset, I/B/E/SDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.NTM P/E (LHS)15-year av eragePage15Dec-90Dec-91Dec-92Dec-93Dec-94 Dec-

51、95Dec-96Dec-97 Dec-98Dec-99Dec-00Dec-01 Dec-02Dec-03Dec-04Dec-05 Dec-06Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09 Dec-10Dec-112012E19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012E199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201110 August 20

52、12Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 27: Forward-looking components of share gains (% YoY): 1) P/E multipleexpansion, 2) earnings growth (1990-Present)120%100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)U.S. Chems NTM EPS est. (median % YoY)U.S. Chems NTM P/E Multiple (median % YoY)U.S. Chems Share Price

53、 Index (median % YoY)Source: Deutsche Bank, FactsetNote: NTM EPS based on FirstCall consensus, Share Price Index represents median %YoY of DB Chems UniverseFigure 28: Specialty Chemicals forward P/E history (1990-Present)20Median = 14.718161412108Source: Deutsche Bank, FactsetNote: Median P/Es based

54、 on period-end price & FirstCall NTM EPS estimates. Current “E” value is based on latest dataFigure 29: Specialty Chemicals EV/EBITDA history (1990-Present)11Median = 8.61098765Source: Deutsche Bank, FactsetNote: Median P/Es based on period-end price & FirstCall NTM EPS estimates. Current “E” value

55、is based on latest dataPage16Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.1990199119921993199419951996199719901991199219931994199519961997199819992012E2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012E1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201110 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigu

56、re 30: Differentiated Chemicals forward P/E history (1990-Present)2523Median = 13.1211917151311975Source: Deutsche Bank, FactsetNote: Median P/Es based on period-end price & FirstCall NTM EPS estimates. Current “E” value is based on latest dataFigure 31: Differentiated Chemicals EV/EBITDA history (1

57、990-Present)1110Median = 7.99876543Source: Deutsche Bank, FactsetNote: Median P/Es based on period-end price & FirstCall NTM EPS estimates. Current “E” value is based on latest dataDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page17Aug-05Aug-06Aug-07Aug-08Aug-09Aug-10Aug-11Aug-12Feb-06Feb-07Feb-08Feb-09Feb-10Feb-11

58、Feb-12Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-1210 August 2012Chemicals/Commod

59、ityChemicals ScorecardFigure 32: Agrium next 12-month P/E and relative P/E20181614121086420NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 9.43-year: 10.75-year: 10.610-year: 11.7Average Relative P/ECurrent: 74%3-year: 80%5-year: 78%10-year: 77%Source: Factset

60、Figure 33: Airgas next 12-month P/E and relative P/E403530252015105NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)220%180%140%100%60%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 15.83-year: 17.35-year: 16.310-year: 16.9Average Relative P/ECurrent: 123%3-year: 130%5-year: 122%10-year: 113%Source: FactsetFigure 34: Air Products

61、 next 12-month P/E and relative P/E222018161412108Source: FactsetPage18NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)160%140%120%100%80%60%40%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 13.43-year: 14.35-year: 14.910-year: 16.2Average Relative P/ECurrent: 105%3-year: 107%5-year: 110%10-year: 107%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Ja

62、n-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan

63、-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12Jan-1210 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 35: Albemarle next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2420161284NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 11.13-year:

64、 13.25-year: 13.110-year: 14.6Average Relative P/ECurrent: 87%3-year: 98%5-year: 97%10-year: 97%Source: FactsetFigure 36: Ashland next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 9.43-year: 11.25-year: 11.310-year: 12.0

65、Average Relative P/ECurrent: 73%3-year: 83%5-year: 83%10-year: 80%Source: FactsetFigure 37: Cabot next 12-month P/E and relative P/E302520151050Source: FactsetNTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)180%160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 9.33-year: 12.75-year: 13.510-year: 14.9Avera

66、ge Relative P/ECurrent: 73%3-year: 94%5-year: 99%10-year: 99%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page19Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12Apr-04Aug-04Dec-04Apr-05Aug-05Dec-05Apr-06Aug-06Dec-06Apr-07Aug-07Dec-07Apr-08A

67、ug-08Dec-08Apr-09Aug-09Dec-09Apr-10Aug-10Dec-10Apr-11Aug-11Dec-11Apr-12Aug-12Jun-05Sep-05Dec-05Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10Jun-10Sep-10Dec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-1210 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals Scorec

68、ardFigure 38: Celanese next 12-month P/E and relative P/E1614121086420NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 8.63-year: 9.95-year: 9.910-year: 9.5Average Relative P/ECurrent: 67%3-year: 74%5-year: 73%10-year: 67%Source: FactsetFigure 39: Compass Mineral

69、s next 12-month P/E and relative P/E191715131197NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%130%120%110%100%90%80%70%60%50%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 15.53-year: 13.65-year: 13.110-year: 14.3Average Relative P/ECurrent: 121%3-year: 102%5-year: 98%10-year: 98%Source: FactsetFigure 40: Cytec next 12-month

70、P/E and relative P/E30272421181512963Source: FactsetPage20NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 14.53-year: 15.25-year: 13.910-year: 14.0Average Relative P/ECurrent: 113%3-year: 113%5-year: 102%10-year: 93%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Jan-95 Jan-96

71、 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-12Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 J

72、an-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-1110 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 41: Dow Chemical next 12-month P/E and relative P/E35302520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)250%200%150%100%50%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 12.03-year: 13.85-year: 13.510-y

73、ear: 13.7Average Relative P/ECurrent: 94%3-year: 101%5-year: 99%10-year: 91%Source: FactsetFigure 42: Dupont next 12-month P/E and relative P/E3530252015105NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 11.23-year: 13.05-year: 12.910-year: 14.9Average Relative P/E

74、Current: 87%3-year: 97%5-year: 96%10-year: 98%Source: FactsetFigure 43: Eastman next 12-month P/E and relative P/E3530140%Average NTM P/E2520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)Source: FactsetDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.NTM P/E (LHS)110%80%50%20%Current: 9.03-year: 10.95-year: 11.310-year: 12.8Average R

75、elative P/ECurrent: 70%3-year: 80%5-year: 83%10-year: 84%Page21Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11J

76、an-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-12Jan-1210 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 44: Ecolab next 12-month P/E and relative P/E3532292623201714118NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (

77、LHS)200%180%160%140%120%100%80%60%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 19.93-year: 19.65-year: 20.310-year: 22.4Average Relative P/ECurrent: 155%3-year: 147%5-year: 151%10-year: 149%Source: FactsetFigure 45: Ferro next 12-month P/E and relative P/E80706050403020100NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)500%450%40

78、0%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 7.93-year: 14.35-year: 15.310-year: 16.3Average Relative P/ECurrent: 61%3-year: 103%5-year: 110%10-year: 107%Source: FactsetFigure 46: FMC next 12-month P/E and relative P/E20181614121086420Source: FactsetPage22NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500NTM P/E160%140%

79、120%100%80%60%40%20%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 7.93-year: 14.35-year: 15.310-year: 16.3Average Relative P/ECurrent: 110%3-year: 98%5-year: 94%10-year: 82%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Oct-11Apr-11Nov-11Aug-11 Sep-11Dec-11 Jan-12Apr-12Jan-11Jun-11May-11Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 J

80、an-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12May-12Feb-12Feb-11 Mar-11Mar-12Jun-12Jul-11Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Sep-05Sep-06Sep-07Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11Mar-1210 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 47: GGC next 12-month P/E and rel

81、ative P/E302520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500NTM P/E200%180%160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 10.53-year: 19.35-year: 79.610-year: 34.9Average Relative P/ECurrent: 82%3-year:148%5-year: 558%10-year: 236%Source: FactsetFigure 48: H.B. Fuller next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2622181410

82、6NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 11.53-year: 12.25-year: 12.310-year: 14.1Average Relative P/ECurrent: 89%3-year: 91%5-year: 91%10-year: 93%Source: FactsetFigure 49: Huntsman next 12-month P/E and relative P/E180160140120100806040200NTM P/E Vs. S

83、&P 500Source: FactsetDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.NTM P/E1200%1000%800%600%400%200%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent 6.43-year: 27.25-year: 27.510-year: 21.5Average Relative P/ECurrent: 50%3-year: 188%5-year: 196%10-year: 151%Page23Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Sep-04Sep-05Sep-06Sep-07Sep-08Sep-0

84、9Sep-10Sep-11Mar-12Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Jun-04Jun-05Jun-06Jun-07Jun-08Jun-09Jun-10Jun-11Dec-04Dec-05Dec-06Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09Dec-10Dec-11Jun-12510 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityC

85、hemicals ScorecardFigure 50: Kronos next 12-month P/E and relative P/E30252015100NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)700%600%500%400%300%200%100%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 7.23-year: 12.55-year: 10.810-year: 14.0Average Relative P/ECurrent: 56%3-year: 93%5-year: 80%10-year: 93%Source: FactsetFigure

86、 51: Lyondell Basell next 12-month P/E and relative P/E14121086420NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500NTM P/E100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 8.2Average Relative P/ECurrent: 64%Source: FactsetFigure 52: Monsanto next 12-month P/E and relative P/E45403530252015105Source: FactsetPage24NTM P/E V

87、s. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)300%250%200%150%100%50%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 20.43-year: 20.25-year: 22.510-year: 22.2Average Relative P/ECurrent:159%3-year: 151%5-year: 166%10-year: 150%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Oct-05Jan-06Apr-06Jul-06Oct-06Jan-07Apr-07Jul-07Oct-07Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-0

88、9Apr-09Jul-09Oct-09Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Aug-99Feb-00Aug-00Feb-01Aug-01Feb-02Aug-02Feb-03Aug-03Feb-04Aug-04Feb-05Aug-05Feb-0

89、6Aug-06Feb-07Aug-07Feb-08Aug-08Feb-09Aug-09Feb-10Aug-10Feb-11Aug-11Feb-12Aug-1210 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 53: Mosaic next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)200%160%120%80%40%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 11.33-year: 13.35-year: 1

90、2.510-year: 18.1Average Relative P/ECurrent: 88%3-year: 98%5-year: 91%10-year: 117%Source: FactsetFigure 54: Olin Corp. next 12-month P/E and relative P/E6050403020100NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500NTM P/E350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 8.53-year: 8.65-year: 9.510-year: 13.8Average Relative

91、 P/ECurrent: 78%3-year: 113%5-year: 101%10-year: 94%Source: FactsetFigure 55: Potash Corp next 12-month P/E and relative P/E40353025220%180%140%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 12.23-year: 15.25-year: 15.12015100%10-year: 18.01050Source: FactsetNTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)60%20%Average Relative P/E

92、Current: 95%3-year: 113%5-year: 111%10-year: 117%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page25Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05

93、 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11Jan-12Dec-05Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10Jun-10Sep-10Dec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-1210 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 56: PPG Industries next 12-mont

94、h P/E and relative P/E22191613107NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 13.23-year: 13.85-year: 13.310-year: 13.7Average Relative P/ECurrent: 103%3-year: 103%5-year: 98%10-year: 91%Source: FactsetFigure 57: Praxair next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2220

95、1816141210NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)170%150%130%110%90%70%50%30%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 17.13-year: 17.45-year: 17.710-year: 17.8Average Relative P/ECurrent: 133%3-year: 131%5-year: 132%10-year: 120%Source: FactsetFigure 58: Rockwood Holdings next 12-month P/E and relative P/E28242016128

96、40Source: FactsetPage26NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)170%140%110%80%50%20%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 10.13-year: 15.05-year: 14.310-year: 14.3Average Relative P/ECurrent: 78%3-year: 110%5-year: 104%10-year: 100%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99J

97、an-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Feb-05Feb-06Feb-07Feb-08Feb-09Feb-10Feb-11Aug-05Aug-06Aug-07Aug-08Aug-09Aug-10Aug-11Feb-12Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12A

98、ug-1210 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 59: RPM International next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500NTM P/E140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 10.13-year: 15.05-year: 12.410-year: 12.5Average Relative P/ECurrent: 111%3-year: 102%5-year:

99、93%10-year: 84%Source: FactsetFigure 60: Sherwin-Williams next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2520151050NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)170%150%130%110%90%70%50%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 10.13-year: 15.05-year: 14.610-year: 14.3Average Relative P/ECurrent: 145%3-year: 119%5-year: 110%10-year: 95%S

100、ource: FactsetFigure 61: Valspar next 12-month P/E and relative P/E2522191613107Source: FactsetNTM P/E Vs. S&P 500NTM P/E140%120%100%80%60%40%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 13.63-year: 13.35-year: 13.010-year: 14.3Average Relative P/ECurrent: 106%3-year: 100%5-year: 97%10-year: 95%Deutsche Bank Securities

101、Inc.Page27Nov-04Feb-05May-05Aug-05Nov-05Feb-06May-06Aug-06Nov-06Feb-07May-07Aug-07Nov-07Feb-08May-08Aug-08Nov-08Feb-09May-09Aug-09Nov-09Feb-10May-10Aug-10Nov-10Feb-11May-11Aug-11Nov-11Feb-12May-12Aug-1210 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 62: Westlake next 12-month P/E and rela

102、tive P/E706050403020100Source: FactsetPage28NTM P/E Vs. S&P 500 (RHS)NTM P/E (LHS)400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%Average NTM P/ECurrent: 11.63-year: 18.85-year: 19.710-year: 15.7Average Relative P/ECurrent: 91%3-year: 135%5-year: 145%10-year: 112%Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.75%38%31%24%24%22%20%1

103、9%14%12%11%10%10%10%12%7%6% 6%3%1% 0%(7%)(21%)(12%)(12%)(28%)(35%)(38%)(40%)LYBALBVAL ARGASHAPDOLNMONGGCWLKCYT CMPDOWRPMMOSROCEMNSHW121%30%30%27%25%21%18%17%16%13%11%3%9%(0%)(1%)(1%)(2%)(4%)(7%)(16%)(10%)(29%)(36%)(41%) (41%)(47%)KRO(67%)CMP(58%)FMCHUNPPGFOE(81%)DDCBTFULPOTECLCEPXLYBALBASHVALARGMON

104、GGCWLKDOWFMCHUNMOSEMNROCSHWKROPPGFOE(78%)OLN APDPOTCYTFULCBTECLDDCEPX10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardGrowth & profitabilityFigure 63: Ranking by June (act.). 2012 EPS change100%75%50%25%0%(25%)(50%)(75%)(100%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information

105、.Figure 64: Ranking by EPS (YoY) Qtr. 2011 EPS change175%125%75%25%(25%)(75%)(125%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page2978%57%32%26%24%23%22%22%19%18%17%16%14%13%12%8%7%4%3%1%0%(0%)(5%)(14%)(12%)(19%)(26%)(28%)(40%)(4%)ASHVALROCALB

106、LYBARGSHWKROOLNAPDGGCWLKMONCYTCMP133%71%56%35%35%25%21%21%20%19%19%17%16%16%15%14%13%13%13%12%12%11%11%10%9%7%5%0%DOWRPMMOSEMNFMCKROHUNPPGASHVALFOEALBDDLYBARGSHWGGCWLKMONROCCYTCBTAPDCMPFMCOLNCEPOTDOWRPMHUNMOSEMNPPGFULECLPX(12%)FOEDDCBTPOTECLFULCEPX(73%)10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals Scor

107、ecardFigure 65: Ranking by 2012E EPS change100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)(80%)(100%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 66: Ranking by 2013E EPS change160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company info

108、rmationPage30Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.CMP25.2%25.1%DDLYBPOTDOWMON MOSPXPPGAPD ECLEMNSHW$658$616$506 $504$479$433$344ARGVALWLK KRO RPM$321 $310 $306 $301$239CBTOLN CYT CMP$205$149 $139$111FULGGCFOE$110$89$17$787$897$1,170$1,232$1,711$1,956$1,992$2,173$3,068$3,134$4,009POT22.4%19.1%16.4%15.9% 15.9

109、%14.9%12.3%11.9%11.2%CEASH HUN FMCMOS MMMALBCEAGUECLDOWDDAPD11.0%10.4%10.2%10.0%9.7% 9.7%9.2% 9.2% 9.2%9.0%8.5%7.4%7.2%ALBROCPXMONEMNWLKFULASH ROC ARGVAL CBT FOE PPG CYT10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 67: Ranking by 2012E net income ($ in millions)$5,000$4,500$4,000$3,500$

110、3,000$2,500$2,000$1,500$1,000$500$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 68: Ranking by 2012E ROIC28%24%20%16%12%8%4%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page31CMPDDPOTLYBDOWMON MOSPXAPDPPGECL$1,

111、049$983$794$730$588$542$504$483$366ARG$365ROCVALKRO RPM$360$344$290$266CBTCYTCMP OLNFUL$257$212$190$163$132GGCFOE$120$39$1,055$1,325$1,918$2,155$2,312$2,942$3,293$3,512$4,38927.1%24.8%15.8%15.6%14.3%14.1%13.9%13.6%12.4%EMNSHWCEASHPOT ECL ALBPXCEMOSAPDDOW11.8%11.4%11.3%FMC HUNALBWLKDDPPGMON11.2%10.2%

112、10.1%10.0%9.5% 9.5% 9.5%9.2% 9.1%8.3%8.0%6.5%EMNROC ASH FULARGCBTAGUFOE VALWLKCYT LYB10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 69: Ranking by 2013E net income ($ in millions)$5,000$4,500$4,000$3,500$3,000$2,500$2,000$1,500$1,000$500$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates a

113、nd company informationFigure 70: Ranking by 2013E ROIC32%28%24%20%16%12%8%4%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage32Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.4105904803703503501801201209090200(30)(40)(80)AGUDDCYTARGCEPOTDOWMONCMPECL FUL(50)(130)(150)PPG(200)WLK ROC650390330

114、2401901001009090807050503030EMN10(10) (10)(165)(174)(70)(640)MONDOWAGULYBCYTASH ARGVALAPDALBWLKCMPFOECEMOSPXROC EMNCBTPPGECLFULDD(850)APD(200)VAL FOELYBCBTPX10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 71: Ranking by 2012E change in ROIC (bps)7006005004003002001000(100)(200)(300)Source

115、: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 72: Ranking by 2013E change in ROIC (bps)8006004002000(200)(400)(600)(800)(1,000)(1,200)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page33SHWDDSHWCEEMNPPGFMCPXPOTKROALBLYBC

116、MPVALHUN ROCAPDARG RPMECLMOS MON16%GGC WLKFULOLNCBTASHDOWCYTFOE3%9%8%26%26%24%23%22%21%21%18%18%17%17%16%16%15%15%15%14%13%11%31%31%30%30%29%34%36%37%34%32%31%31%29%29%28%25%25%21%21%20%19%19%18%17%17%17%17%38%DD CECMPPXEMNPPGFMCLYBPOTVALKROALBROCAPDARGMON GGCECLHUNMOSFUL16%WLK15%OLN14%CBT14%ASH11%C

117、YT11%DOW11%FOE6%10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 73: Ranking by 2012E ROE40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 74: Ranking by 2013E ROE39%36%33%30%27%24%21%18%15%12%9%6%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and

118、 company informationPage34Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.$5,750$4,782$4,622$4,485$3,252$2,644$2,521$1,980$1,676$1,535$1,014$1,325$923$920$919$726$610$578$574$532$515$476$324$256$237$198$425$172$171FOE(55%)ASHVALLYBALBARG ROCKROAPDSHWOLNCYTMONGGCWLKPOTDOWMOSRPMEMN84%69%51%31%31%27%24%21%20%18%16%15%13%

119、12%11%11%9%3% 3%1% 1%(1%)(3%)(6%)(14%)(16%)(18%)(13%)ASHVALLYBDDALBROCSHWARGKROOLNAPDGGC MONWLKCYTCBTPOTCEDOWRPMMOSEMNCMPFMCHUNPPGECLFULPX(22%)CMPFMCHUNPPGFOEDDCBTCEPXECLFUL$5410 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 75: Ranking by 2012E operating profit ($ in millions)$7,000$6,000

120、$5,000$4,000$3,000$2,000$1,000$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 76: Ranking by 2012E change in operating profit100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)(80%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page3

121、5$6,262$5,123$4,971$3,577$2,954$5,627$2,808$1,907$1,754$1,715$1,630$1,056$1,192$996$943$805$680$651$626$614$549$465$459$344$286$279$233$207FUL$416LYBALBVALARGAPDASHCYTOLNCEDOWMONGGCWLKCMPFMCHUNMOSROCRPMEMN63%61%45%23%22%28%20%18% 18% 18%15%14% 14%SHW14%13%12% 12% 11% 11%11%10%9%9%8%7%KROPOTPPG7%4%3%

122、(4%)ASHVALFOEALBARGROCCYTLYBCBTDDSHWGGCWLKCMPMONDOWRPMKROAPDOLNCEPOTFMCHUNMOSEMNPPGFULECLPX(13%)FOEDDPXCBTECL$8710 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 77: Ranking by 2013E operating profit ($ in millions)$7,000$6,000$5,000$4,000$3,000$2,000$1,000$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities

123、 Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 78: Ranking by 2013E change in operating profit70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage36Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.50%24%24%22%22%20%19%17%16%16%14%14%14%13%13%13%16%12%12%12%11%

124、11%11%10%10%9%8%6%8%VALASHALBROCDDCYTAPDOLNARGKROCEMONWLKPOTCMPFMCPPGMOSPXEMNECLLYBSHW380350310290190170 170150140120100908080604030100(30) (30)(70)(80)(60)(120)(210)(270)(300)MOS CMPDOWASHVALLYBALBSHWARGROCCYTAPDOLNGGCWLKMONHUNFMCDOWRPMPPGEMNFOEDDCBTPOTFULECLCEPX(390)GGCRPMHUNFOECBTFUL3%10 August 2

125、012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 79: Ranking by 2012E operating margin60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 80: Ranking by 2012E change in operating margin (bps)5004003002001000(100)(200)(300)(400)(500)Source: Deutsche Bank S

126、ecurities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page3725%24%52%24%23%22%20%18%18%16%15%15%15%14%17%14%13%13%13%12%12%12%12%11%11%10%9%6%(80)8%VALASHALBROCCYTLYBKROARGSHWAPDWLKOLNMON240170150 150120 120 120110100 100 1009070707070605050333030202020(40)(20)DOWGGCPPGCMPFMCM

127、OSRPMEMNHUNPPGLYBALBASHARGMON GGCWLKFMCVALCYTFOEOLNAPDCEDOWMOSRPMEMNHUNPXDDROCFULCBTSHWKROPOTECL(180)FOEDDPOTCBTCEPXECLFUL4%10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 81: Ranking by 2013E operating margin60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company

128、informationFigure 82: Ranking by 2013E change in operating margin (bps)300250200150100500(50)(100)(150)(200)(250)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage38Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.POTMON ARGECLSHWPXCYTROCRPMPPGALBAPDVALFMCASH41% 41% 40%39%36%35%35%35%34%32%31%3

129、0%30%FULCMPCBTCEFOE OLNWLKDOWHUNLYBGGC11%25%23%22%21%20%19%18%16%30%41%43%44%52%54%56%60%CYT2,8701,4971,336917786748626467369 353316249214DD4,713LYBGGCEMNASH HUNWLKOLN ALBDDPPGSHWVAL CBT185MOSKROEMNFMC109PXMON(55)RPM(79)APD(120)POT(123)ARG(135)FOE(254)DOW(269)ROC(446)FUL(447)ECL(634)CE(948)MOS(958)1

130、0 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 83: Ranking by 2012E gross margin70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche BankFigure 84: Ranking by 2012E change in gross margin (bps)6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000(1,000)(2,000)(3,000)Source: Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page39C

131、MP1,4421,377ECLSHWPXRPMPPGALBCMPROCFMCCYTVALASHAPDDDMOSEMNFULKROCBTGGCCEOLNFOEWLKDOWHUNLYB43.3%42.7%39.4%38.8% 38.7%38.1%37.8%35.5% 35.5%35.2%34.2%33.8%31.2%30.6%28.5%26.3%24.6%24.1% 24.0%23.1%20.7%19.6%18.3%17.8%44.3%47.6%52.7%ARG55.4%MON56.0%3,115POT60.9%OLNLYB823 811688596567 565480430 4223753222

132、84 270222 215189FMCSHWRPMFOEPPGCBTDOWCEMOSHUN EMNPXASHARGFULPOTECL161WLK109ALB50VAL13DD(16)MON(43)APD(146)ROC(440)KRO(687)CYT(755)10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 85: Ranking by 2013E gross margin70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche BankFigure 86: Ranking by 2013E change

133、 in gross margin (bps)3,8003,3002,8002,3001,8001,300800300(200)(700)(1,200)Source: Deutsche BankPage40Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.ECL63%31%25%24%24%22%19%18%14%72%DDDOWLYBPOTMONPXMOSAPD PPGECLEMN ASH HUNCESHWFMC ARG ROCALBWLK GRAVALKRO RPMCBTCHMTCYT OLNGGC CMPFULFOE$903$853 $838$715$667 $638$605$52

134、6 $503$474 $438$387 $364$290$239 $227$111$1,237$1,182$1,346$1,349$1,690$2,245$2,450$2,526$3,152$3,521$3,852$4,985$5,682$7,322$7,350ASH EMNMONFULGGC SHWFMC VAL14%12%11%11%10%10%9% 8%3%2% 2% 1%1%(1%)(3%)(5%)WLKCHMTLYBARGOLN HUNDDPPGRPM CBT ALBPXMOSPOTGRA ROCAPD CYT(10%)CE(11%)KRO(11%)DOW(13%)CMP(16%)F

135、OE(40%)10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 87: Ranking by 2012E EBITDA ($ in millions)$10,000$9,000$8,000$7,000$6,000$5,000$4,000$3,000$2,000$1,000$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 88: Ranking by change in 2012E EBITDA80%70%60%50%4

136、0%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)(60%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page4147%CMPDOWDDLYBPOTMONPXMOSAPDECLPPGEMN ASHHUNCESHWFMC ARG ROCALBGRAVALRPMCHMTKROCYTOLNCMP$1,380$1,360$993$936$884$790$702$641$541$515$509$429$402$351GGC

137、FULFOE$327$268$147$1,387$1,429$2,080$2,150$2,469$2,807$3,511$3,858$4,182$5,635$5,896$7,902$8,352FOE31%23%18%18%15%14%14%13%13%12%11%11%11%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%9%8% 7%6%6%6%32%CBTEMNFULCHMTSHW WLKDOWPOTGGCCEMOSAPD CYT ALB OLNGRAECLFMC ARGPXMONDDRPMVALASH ROCLYB3%HUN KRO(3%)PPG(12%)10 August 2012Chemi

138、cals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 89: Ranking by 2013E EBITDA ($ in millions)$10,000$9,000$8,000$7,000$6,000$5,000$4,000$3,000$2,000$1,000$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 90: Ranking by change in 2013E EBITDA50%40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)Source: Deut

139、sche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage42Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.56%31%28%28%26%24%26%23%22%22%22%20%20%19%19%18%18%18%18%16%15%14%14%16%13%13%12%12%12%12%8%ALBCYTARGASHVALAPDOLNLYBCEMONGGCWLKCMPFMCHUNDOWMOSROCKRORPMEMN760370340250210160150140130 130120110100 10080804030

140、10(10)(10)(20)(70)(70)(80)(30)CHMT(140)SHWGRAPPG(190)(260)(290)MOSASHVALLYBALBSHWARGROCCYTOLNAPDWLKGGCFOEDDCBTPOTCEMONCHMTDOWGRACMPFMCHUNEMNRPMPPGPXFULECL(340)FOEDDPXCBTPOTECLFUL6%10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 91: Ranking by 2012E EBITDA margin60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source:

141、 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 92: Ranking by 2012E change in EBITDA margin (bps)9008007006005004003002001000(100)(200)(300)(400)(500)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page4357%32%30%30%28%26%26

142、%25%22%21%21%20%20%19%19%19%19%18%18%17%16%16%15%15%14%14%13%13%12%12%9%ASHVALALBROCCYTDDKROARGAPDOLNCEMONWLKPOTCMPFMCPXMOSEMN GRAECLLYBSHWDOWCHMT810180160160160130 130110 1109080747110070 7060 6030205010 10 10 102(20)(30)(80)(190)ASHLYBVALFOEALBDDROCCBTOLNSHWARGAPDMONGGCWLKCMPCHMTDOWRPMHUNMOSGRA EM

143、NKROPOTCEFMCPPGPXFULECL(90)CYT(210)GGCRPM HUNPPGFOECBTFUL8%10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 93: Ranking by 2013E EBITDA margin65%60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 94: Ranking by 2013E change in

144、 EBITDA margin (bps)1,0008006004002000(200)(400)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage44Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.ASHDOWLYBDDPPGMONECLHUNPXMOS SHWAPDPOTEMN ASHCEARGVALRPM WLK$4.75$4.24 $4.07$3.80FMC$3.76ROCGGCCBTALBKROOLNFULFOECYTCMP$3.69$3.46 $3.26$2.79$2.40$

145、2.05 $1.95 $1.87 $1.79$1.08$6.65$8.24$8.28$8.89$9.60$9.61$11.11$11.34$11.49$11.91$13.64$15.18$40.79$42.75$57.9927%25%24%16%15%12%12%11%10%8%7% 7%5%5%4%2%2% 2%1% 1%(0%)(2%)(3%)(3%)(3%)(5%)FULKROMONEMN MOSARGFMCSHWRPMGGCVALDDWLKOLNHUNPOTPPGPXROCCBTCECMPALBDOWAPDFOE(13%)LYB(16%)10 August 2012Chemicals/

146、CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 95: Ranking by 2012E sales ($ in billions)$70$60$50$40$30$20$10$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 96: Ranking by 2012E sales growth YoY30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company

147、 informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page45$61.28$43.80$39.08$14.70$14.00$12.00$12.01$11.84$10.78$12.63$10.36$9.85 $9.83$8.65$7.09$5.05$4.46 $4.33 $4.25 $4.05 $4.03$3.03$2.55$2.20 $2.17 $2.11 $1.96FOE(8%)PPG$3.84$3.84ASHVALLYBROCALBDDCBTARGKROCYTCESHWWLKGGCOLNAPDPOTMONDOWMOSRPM23%19%18%12%11%11%

148、12%10%8%8%8% 8%7% 7% 7%7% 7%6% 6% 6%6%6% 6%6%5%5%5%5%CYTALBARGVALAPDOLNGGCWLKMONASHCMP FMCCEFOEDOWMOSRPMEMNROCSHWKROHUNCBTPOTLYB(9%)DDFULECLPXCMPEMNFMCHUNPPGPXECLFUL$1.1610 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 97: Ranking by 2013E sales ($ in billions)$70$60$50$40$30$20$10$0Source

149、: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 98: Ranking by 2013E sales growth YoY26%24%22%20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%(2%)(4%)(6%)(8%)(10%)(12%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage46Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.95%47%40%20%17%11%11%8

150、%5% 5%3%3%2%1% 1%0% 0%(0%)(1%)(1%)(1%)(2%)(4%)(4%)(5%)(8%)(10%) (10%)(43%)VALASHAPDOLNARGMONGGCWLKDOWSHW78%32%28%29%18%17%8% 8% 8%12%6%4%3%3%1%0%(0%)(1%) (1%)(3%)(3%)(4%)MOSROCKRO(4%)(5%)(7%)(9%)(14%)(22%)ASHVALALBFOEARGROCKROLYBDDCBTSHWGGCWLKOLNAPDMONDOWMOSCMPFMCRPMEMNHUNCYTPOTPPGECLFULCEPX(36%)(25

151、%)CMPFMCHUNFOERPMEMNPOTPPGCYT(48%)ALBCBTLYBCEDDFULECLPX10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 99: Ranking by June (Act.) qtr sales growth % QoQ110%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)(60%)(70%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company infor

152、mationFigure 100: Ranking by Sept (est.) qtr sales growth % QoQ100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page4774%34%34%16%15%13%11%9%8%10%7% 7% 6%4% 4%1%(1%)(1%)(1%)(1%)(2%)(4%)(4%)(6%)(8%)(9%)(19%)(10%)(20%)

153、LYBALBVALARGASHOLNGGCMONWLKCMPFMCAPDHUN78%29%18%17%28%32%12%8% 8% 8%6%4% 3% 3%1%0%(0%)(1%) (1%)(3%)(3%)(4%)(5%)(7%)(9%)(4%)(14%)DOWRPMMOSSHWROCKROPPG(22%)FOEPOT(25%)LYBASHVALROCALBKRO ARGSHWOLNGGCWLKAPD FOEMONDOWMOSCMPFMCRPMEMNHUNCYT(36%)DDCBTPOTPPGECLFULCEPXCYTDDCBTCBTECLFULCEPX(49%)10 August 2012C

154、hemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 101: Ranking by June (Act.)qtr sales growth % YoY100%80%60%40%20%0%(20%)(40%)(60%)(80%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information.Figure 102: Ranking by Sept (est.)qtr sales growth % YoY100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20

155、%)(30%)(40%)(50%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information.Page48Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.2.82 2.812.652.482.282.202.142.041.671.60 1.591.411.221.080.820.410.380.290.04(0.00)(0.19)(0.20)(0.28)ASHVALALBLYBARGAPDDOWWLKFOECYTDD1.661.251.231.301.150.970.960.930.920.890.

156、840.880.700.640.680.450.530.370.35 0.350.31 0.310.18MONASH VALFOE ALBROCARGWLKKROAPDCYTLYBDDCBTCEPOTDOWMONCMPPPGMOSPXFULEMNECL0.09MOSCBTPXROCFULCMPEMNKROCEPPGPOTECL(0.88)10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardLeverage, liquidity & capitalFigure 103: Ranking by 2012E net debt/EBITDA3.53.

157、02.52.01.51.00.50.0(0.5)(1.0)(1.5)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 104: Ranking by 2012E total debt/equity1.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page492.352.252.232

158、.152.001.871.731.691.351.311.220.911.200.880.850.27(0.03)(0.08)(0.13)(0.03)(0.32)(0.40)(0.46)0.17MONMOS0.08DOW1.34 1.331.091.000.98 0.970.970.830.760.740.63 0.620.600.550.490.350.330.32 0.310.27 0.26MONASHVAL FOEDDALBROCCYTARGDOWWLKCMPEMNKROAPDPPGLYBCBTCEPOTPXECLFUL0.23MOS(0.78)ASHVALFOEDDROCCYTLYBA

159、LBCBTARGWLKCMPEMNKROAPDCEPPGPOTPXECLFUL10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 105: Ranking by 2013E net debt/EBITDA2.82.31.81.30.80.3(0.2)(0.7)(1.2)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 106: Ranking by 2013E total debt/equity1.51.00.50.0Sou

160、rce: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage50Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.$16,664$7,960$7,551$6,335$5,568$2,754$2,116 $2,067 $2,017$1,897$1,183$1,332$736$488$381 $361 $294 $294 $229($1)($76)($129)($1,085)MONALBLYBARGASHVALAPDCYTCEDOWWLKCMPFOEDD$16,728$6,972$6,602$8,307$5

161、,498$2,619$2,411$2,101$1,858$1,073 $1,059$547$352$320$275$114($24)($158) ($204) ($235) ($304)ASHVALFOEALBROCCYTLYBDDCBTARGKROAPDCEWLKPOTDOWMONCMPPPGMOSPXEMNECLFUL($2,725)($1,325)($711)MOSPXROCEMNCBTFULKROPPG POTECL($2,759)10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 107: Ranking by 201

162、2E net debt ($ in millions)$20,000$16,000$12,000$8,000$4,000$0($4,000)($8,000)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 108: Ranking by 2013E net debt ($ in millions)$18,000$16,000$14,000$12,000$10,000$8,000$6,000$4,000$2,000$0($2,000)($4,000)($6,000)($8,000)Sourc

163、e: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page51POT25.8%POTRPMMON KROFMCMOSGGCLYBROCSHWALBPPGDDVALECLEMNOLNASHCEARGCMPPXWLK CBTDOWFUL(0.2%)CYT(0.3%)7.6%7.3%7.0%6.9%6.6%6.3%5.8%5.8%5.2%4.8%4.6%3.9%3.4%2.4%1.9%1.7%1.7%8.2%8.6%9.6%9.9%14.1%15.4%16.6%

164、18.2%29.0%HUN21.0%MOS16.2%11.9%11.5% 11.4% 11.4%11.2% 11.0%9.3%8.9%8.6%8.2%7.9%7.3%7.1%6.4%6.3%6.2%5.8%5.5%4.6%4.4%4.4%4.2%3.0%2.3%2.2%HUN RPM CMP KRO ARG MONOLNLYBALBECLEMNDDFULVALPPGCEFMC ROCGGC ASHPXSHWWLKFOEDOWCBTCYT(1.1%)APD(5.0%)10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 109: R

165、anking by 2012E free cash flow/sales24%21%18%15%12%9%6%3%0%(3%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 110: Ranking by 2013E free cash flow/sales35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)Source: Deutsche BankPage52Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.APD24.113.813.513.113.1 13.112

166、.312.211.811.033.5APDPXCMP WLKCYTARG POTECLMON MOS SHWOLNFMC CBTALBDOWPPGDDEMN VALFOERPM ROCCEFULASHGGC HUNLYBKRO12.812.611.611.111.010.910.910.610.09.6 9.5 9.58.26.2 6.2 6.05.313.113.613.814.114.115.415.616.016.616.830.030.562.4PXECLCYTARGPPGMON SHW MOS CMPFMCROC10.2VAL10.2DD10.2DOW10.0RPM9.4ALB9.1

167、CBT8.6EMN8.4CE8.2ASH7.8FUL7.6WLK7.2FOE6.8OLN6.7GGC6.5HUN6.1LYB6.0KRO5.510 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 111: Ranking by 2012E EV/(EBITDA-Capex)706050403020100Source: Deutsche BankFigure 112: Ranking by 2013E EV/(EBITDA-Capex)4035302520151050Source: Deutsche Bank Securities

168、Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page53151%89%62%60%36% 35%34%51%32%31%28%24%23%20%18%17%15%12% 12% 11%14%8%4%0%FOEVALARGROCOLNSHWKROASHDDALBLYBCBTCEMONDOW151%62%60%89%36% 35%34%51%32%31%28%24%23%20%18%17%15%12% 12%11%14%8%4%0%FOEVALROCARGSHWKROOLNASHALBLYBCBTDDCEWL

169、KMONDOWGGCPOTFMCRPMMOSEMNHUNPPG ECL0%GGCPOTWLKFMCRPMMOSEMNHUNPPG ECL0%10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 113: Ranking by 2012E dividends/(cash flow from operations less capital spending)175%150%125%100%75%50%25%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company inf

170、ormationFigure 114: Ranking by 2013E dividends/(cash flow from operations less capital spending)175%150%125%100%75%50%25%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage54Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.69%59%50%43%42%41%38%34%30%30%26%26%24%24%24%19%19%19%19%16%16%11% 11%9

171、%8%6%6%CE5%CEVALOLNAPDCYTALBLYBARGASHMONDOWSHW79%51%46%45%39%38%38%36%35%34%32%31%24%22%21%20%20%20%20%16%16%13%10%9%9%7%MOSROCVALROCARGSHWKROASHLYBALBDDAPDOLNCYTCBTMONDOWMOSWLKCMPRPMHUNEMNFMCPPGPOTPXECLFUL2%WLKCMPRPMEMNKROFMCHUNDDPXCBTECLFULPPGPOT2%10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals Scoreca

172、rdFigure 115: Ranking by 2012E dividend payout ratio75%70%65%60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 116: Ranking by 2013E dividend payout ratio85%80%75%70%65%60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securit

173、ies Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page554.23.93.44.53.43.33.22.42.22.12.32.02.01.91.91.81.71.71.61.41.31.31.21.1VALAGUASHFOEALBLYBROCCYTCBTDDWLKMONARGKRODOWCMPAPDCEPPGPOTMOSEMNFUL$267$180$174$120$84$45 $43 $43$39 $39$77$24$18$13($4)($6) ($8) ($9)($46)($51)($75)($

174、57)($150)ECLARGAGULYBVALALBCYTASHAPDCEWLKCMPDOWMONFOEMOSDDPXROCKROEMNCBTFULECLPPGPOT($288)($245)PX1.010 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 117: Ranking by 2012E current ratio5.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationF

175、igure 118: Ranking by 2012E change in working capital ($ in millions)$300$200$100$0($100)($200)($300)($400)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage56Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.3.8%2.2%1.6%1.2%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.3%0.2%(0.1%) (0.1%) (0.2%)(0.3%)(0.7%

176、)(0.9%)(0.5%)(1.5%)(1.7%)(2.1%)AGUALBVALARGCYTLYBASHAPDCEWLKDOW17.511.08.67.87.57.57.06.86.66.56.36.26.26.05.05.04.44.34.24.04.04.04.03.7ROCMONVALASHWLKDOWMOSAGUFOELYBALBDDAPDARGCYTCBTEMNCMPKROCEPOTPPGPXFULECL2.5MONMOSCMPFOEDDPXROCKROEMNCBTFULPPGPOTECL(2.1%)10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals

177、 ScorecardFigure 119: Ranking by 2012E change in working capital as a % of sales5%4%3%2%1%0%(1%)(2%)(3%)(4%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 120: Ranking by 2012E Inventory turnover20181614121086420Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and compa

178、ny informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page57CBTCYTPPGECLASHVALFOEAGUALBROCARGKROAPDMONDOWWLKCMPLYBDDCEPOTPXVALASHMOSARGLYBKROAPDCBTPOTPPGEMNECLFOEROCALBDDCYTCEEMNFULMONDOWMOSWLKCMPFULPX10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 121: Ranking by 2012E days sales outstanding1009080

179、897670605071 70686361 6159 5755 54 53 5352 51 5148 47 4640403835313020100Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 122: Ranking by 2012E days in payables14023130120110128120100908090907068656563626055555040304947434238383834313030262420100Source: Deutsche Bank Sec

180、urities Inc. estimates and company informationPage58Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.$2,500$2,250$2,200$2,100$2,100$1,639$1,200$600 $600$500$450$425$389$375$357$300 $290$275$260$250 $244$200$150 $145$90 $84 $82$65 $60KROLYBALBARGCYTASHVALAPDOLNCEMONGGCWLKCMPFMCHUNDOWMOSRPMROCEMN$2,800$2,250$2,200$2,200$

181、1,750$1,350$1,100$650$625$550$425$375$375$330$315$313$300$257$200$200$180$152$125$123SHWPOTPPG$90 $83 $78$65 $62KROFOEDDPXCBTECLFUL$55LYBCYTALBARG ASHVALOLNAPDCEMONGGCWLKCMPDOWFMCHUNMOSROCRPMEMNSHWPOTPPGFOEPXDDCBTECLFUL$6010 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 123: Ranking by 201

182、2E capital spending ($ in millions)$2,800$2,600$2,400$2,200$2,000$1,800$1,600$1,400$1,200$1,000$800$600$400$200$0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 124: Ranking by 2013E capital spending ($ in millions)$3,000$2,700$2,400$2,100$1,800$1,500$1,200$900$600$300$

183、0Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page59140%80%76%63%72%44%44%43%40%39%35%30%27%25%17%15%14%14%14%13%11%9%7%1%1%(3%)(7%)(3%)(13%)ALBCYTARGASHVALAPDLYBGGCWLKMONCMPFMCHUNOLNCEDOWMOSRPMEMNROCSHW25%15%13%12%10%9%9% 8%7%5% 5%4%3% 3%2%0% 0

184、% 0% 0% 0%(0%)(7%)(17%)(8%)(6%)(20%)(35%)(48%)(49%)OLNKROPPGLYBVALCYTARGASHAPDGGCALBCEMONDOWMOSROCSHWWLKCMPFMC RPMEMNKROHUNFOEDDCBTECLFULPXPPGPOT(53%)FOEDDPXCBTFULPOTECL(24%)10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 125: Ranking by change in 2012E capital spending YoY150%140%130%120

185、%110%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 126: Ranking by change in 2013E capital spending YoY30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)(60%)(70%)Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company i

186、nformation.Page60Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.APD18.8%14.8%11.2%10.8%9.3%9.1%7.8%20.4%POTAPDPXMOS CMP OLNWLKCYTALBROCCBTARG FMC EMNCE DDECLMONDOWASHHUNFULPPGFOELYBKROGGCVALRPMSHW6.6%6.0%5.6%5.1%5.0%4.4%4.3%3.5%3.4% 3.3%3.0% 2.9%2.8%2.5% 2.4%2.1%2.0%1.5%7.5%8.0%8.1%9.9%11.2%11.2%11.9%13.9%14.8%19.9%2

187、2.9%23.6%PXMOSPOTCMP ROC CYTCBTARG6.5%FMC6.4%ALB6.0%OLN5.7%EMN5.6%CE5.3%DD5.0%ECL5.0%WLK4.7%DOW4.6%MON4.4%ASH3.6%LYB3.5%FUL3.1%FOE3.1%PPG3.0%HUN2.6%KRO2.4%VAL2.0%GGC2.0%RPM1.9%SHW1.5%10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 127: Ranking by 2012E capital spending/sales26%24%22%20%18

188、%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationFigure 128: Ranking by 2013E capital spending/sales22%20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page61420%323%262%259%22

189、5%315%224%221%173%154%141%137% 137%133%130% 129%120%118% 118%113%104%114%100% 100%96%92%91%87%VALARGROCKRODOWSHWWLKMONGGCCMPFMCMOSRPMEMNHUN314%215% 214%244%247%174%164%157%148%146% 146%139%137%135%125%124%122%116% 116%110%107% 107% 106%100%98%91%87%82%73%ASHALBLYBARGVALCYTAPDOLNCEMONGGCWLKCMPFMCDOWM

190、OSROCRPMEMNSHWKROHUNFOEDDPXPOTCBTFULPPGECL71%ASHALBOLNAPDCYTLYBPPGFOECBTDDPOTFULCEPXECL68%85%10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 129: Ranking by 2012E capital spending/depreciation450%400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company

191、information.Figure 130: Ranking by 2013E capital spending/depreciation350%325%300%275%250%225%200%175%150%125%100%75%50%25%0%Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage62Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.DD$6,644$9,289FOE ASHDDCEDOWHUN ROC EMN KRO PPG CYTMOSFMC APD LYBCBT

192、RPM OLNPXALBVALWLKMONAGU POT4.7%4.3%4.1%3.6%2.8%2.5%2.2% 2.1%0.9%0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%5.2%5.6%5.7%6.0%6.8%13.4%18.4%18.5%19.5%19.9%22.2%49.6%DOWASH$1,230CE$1,199LYB$1,079PPG$951APD$762PX$703HUN$601EMN$509ROC$465FMC$350MON$253POT$162CYT$161FOE$131KRO$124ALB$112RPM$96CBT$83AGU$79MOS$64OLN$43VAL$40WLK$24

193、10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 131: Ranking by 2011 Unfunded pension liability/market cap.60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche BankFigure 132: Ranking by 2011 unfunded pension liability ($ MM)$10,000$9,000$8,000$7,000$6,000$5,000$4,000$3,000$2,000$1,000$0Source: Deutsche

194、BankDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page63-10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 133: US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end marketsCompanyAuto &TransportConstructionElectronics Comments3MAir Products11%4%10%15%Industrial 25%; Healthcare 18%; Consumer 15%; Energy 3%, Sa

195、fety & Security 14%Energy 24%, Genl Mfg 15%, Chemicals 17%, Metals 10%, Medical 7%, Food 3%, Others10%Airgas2%13%Industrial & Mfg: 25% ; Repair & Maintenance: 27% Retail & Wholesale: 4% Other 3%Medical: 9% ; Food; 6%; Analytical: 2% Utilities: 2%, Petrochemical: 7% “Auto & Transport”is only Transpor

196、t and no AutoAlbemarleAshland6%8%9%17%15%Refining 32%, Pharma/ Ag 12%, Industrial 10%, Packaging 9%, Oilfield 4%, Other 3%Coatings 6%, Lubricants 15%, Chemicals 5%, Pulp/ paper 12%, Energy 3%, Regulated Ind3%, Marine 4%, Infrastructure 2%, Packaging/ converting 3%, Retail consumer 3%, PersonalCare 3

197、%, Medical 2%, Others 14%Celanese11%3%Filter Media 22%; Paints & Coatings 13%; Consumer & Medical Apps 12%; Consumer &Industrial Adhesives; Industrial Performance Apps 7%; Textiles 5% ; Food & Beverage 4%;Paper & Packaging 3%Cytec17%47%Chemical Processing:13%,Mineral Processing 7%; Plastic : 4%; Adh

198、esives: 3% ; Other: 9%“Auto & Transport” consists of Automotive onlyDuPont20%10%9%Agriculture/ food 21%; Food Ingred, Ref & packaging 8%; Other packaging 3%; Chemicals/petchem 5%; Textile/ apparel 5%; Plastics 3%; Other industrial 7%; Aeropsace 4%; Paper1%; Healthcare 1%; Personal care 3%.“Construct

199、ion” includes residential, commercialconstruction”Eastman6%11%2%Packaging 28%; Tobacco 18%; Consumables 10%; Durable Goods 7%; Industrial Chems &Processing 6%; Agriculture 2%; Energy, Fuel, & Water 2%FerroHB Fuller10%34%10%21%Appliances 8%; Containers 8%; Household furnishings 7%; Industrial 6%; Oth

200、ers 6%Adhesives: 72%; Paints: 8%; Packaging: 4%; Insulating glass: 4%; Consumer: 2%LyondellBasell7%10%Refining/Fuels:35%;Packaging:18%;Consumer:12%;Coatings:4%;Textiles/Furnishings:4%; Other:10%. “Auto & Transport” consists of Transportation only.“Construction” consists of “Building & Construction”.

201、PPG30%27%Consumer goods 21%; Industrial goods 10%; Chemical products: 5%; Aerospace 4%; Marine3% (Auto consists of OEM 19%, Auto aftermarket 11%)Praxair7%Manufacturing 24%; Chemicals 10%; Energy 13%; Food and Beverage 7%; Aerospace 2%;Healthcare 10%; Metals 16%; Other 11%Rockwood Holdings11%13%8.0%M

202、etal Treatment 17%; Chemicals/Plastics 14%; Life Sciences 12%; Consumer Products 2%;Paper 2%; Environmental 2%; Other 8%Valspar3%30%Industrial 36%, Packaging 21%, Other 10% “Auto & Transport” is automotive refinish and“Construction” is architectural paintsSource: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimate

203、sPage64Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.AGUARGWLKVALALBASHAPDCYTOMNMONCMPFOEDOWMOSEMNDDCEPXMMMROCKROPPG POTECLFUL10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 134: US Chemicals exposure to geographical markets (2011)CompanyUSCanadaEuropeAsia-Pacific (inc. Latin AmericaROWChina*China)3MAgriu

204、mAlbemarleAir ProductsAirgasAshlandCelaneseCompass MineralsCytecDowKronosEcolabFerroH.B. FullerMonsantoMosaicOmnova SolutionsPotashPPGPraxairRockwoodValsparWestlake34%76%39%44%100%54%26%68%35%32%28%52%47%40%54%35%61%41%42%49%20%52%89%0%13%0%3%0%0%5%22%0%0%11%4%0%0%4%6%1%46%0%0%0%0%7%24%6%0%30%0%26%4

205、1%8%40%35%60%29%16%30%13%0%22%0%34%13%69%15%0%31%0%0%0%0%13%21%0%18%0%0%11%0%13%7%22%16%0%17%12%0%12%1%12%5%0%0%0%7%4%0%7%0%0%5%0%17%17%23%0%0%0%21%0%0%0%0%1%61%23%0%0%4%2%0%33%0%0%37%0%5%13%0%13%8%6%11%21%3%0%0%0%4%0%0%10%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%4%0%0%0%12%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, company data

206、; * represents 2011 data; ND = Not DisclosedFigure 135: Ranking by 2011 Exposure to the US100%90%80%70%100%89%76%68%61%60%50%40%30%54% 54% 53% 52% 52%49% 47%44% 42%41% 40% 39%35% 35% 35% 34%32%28% 26%20%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Company dataDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page65ROCKROOMNM

207、ONDOWCYTASHVALCEMOSEMNMMMMMMOMNMONWLKPXFULPPGECLDDAGUCYTASHVALAPDCECMPFOEDDEMNFULPPGECLPX10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 136: Ranking by 2011 Exposure to Europe80%70%69%60%60%50%41%40%40%35%34%30%20%30%30%29%26%26%24%22%19%16%15%13%13%10%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, C

208、ompany dataFigure 137: Ranking by 2011 Exposure to Asia- Pacific35%31%30%8%6%25%23%22%21%20%18%17%16%15%13%13%12%12%11%10%9%7%5%1%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Company dataPage66Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.VALDDAPDCEPOTMOS10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 138: Ranking b

209、y 2011 Exposure to China14%12%12%10%10%8%6%9%4%4%4%2%2%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, Company dataDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page67Q108Q208Q308Q408Q109Q209Q309Q409Q110Q210Q310Q410Q111Q211Q311Q411Q112Q212Q104Q204Q304Q404Q105Q205Q205Q305Q106Q206Q306Q406Q107Q207Q307Q407Q108Q208Q308Q408Q109Q209Q309

210、Q409Q110Q210Q310Q410Q111Q211Q311Q411Q112Q21210 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardFigure 139: US Chemicals selling price trends (2004-Present)45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)(15%)(20%)(25%)CommoditiesSpecialties/DifferentiatedsGasesSource: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates a

211、nd company informationFigure 140: US Chemicals volume trends (2004-Present)20%15%10%5%0%(5%)(10%)(15%)(20%)(25%)CommoditiesGasesSource: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company informationPage68Specialties/DifferentiatedsIndustrial Production: Chem indexDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.Deutsc

212、heBankSecuritiesInc.Page69ChemicalsScorecardChemicals/Commodity10August2012Figure 141: Chemicals valuation ratiosMarket Segment/Price52-WeekMkt CapP/E RatioP/E Rel. to S&P 500 EV/EBITDAFCF YieldP/FCFDiv.Net Debt/CompanySymbolRating8/9/12Range($MM)2012E2013E2012E2013E 2012E 2013E2012E2013E2012E2013EY

213、ield12E EBITDASpecialty ChemicalsAlbemarleAshlandCabotChemturaCytecEcolabFerroH.B. FullerW.R. Grace3MMinerals TechnologiesNewMarket Corp.ALBASHCBTCHMTCYTECLFOEFULGRAMMMMTXNEUBuyBuyHold-BuyBuyBuyHold-Hold-$60.8771.1737.2916.3063.6564.533.5230.0257.7191.5965.79246.23$6972451865691033619269249$38412283

214、244317306946137$5,4285,5852,4451,6012,93118,8363041,4974,32565,0821,1613,30112.711.211.710.621.621.518.213.813.914.116.013.811.49.79.38.313.818.47.811.512.813.114.713.50.920.810.850.771.571.561.321.001.011.021.161.000.880.750.720.651.071.430.600.890.991.011.141.058.06.55.85.08.211.35.76.95.38.75.18.

215、67.36.14.44.27.410.24.35.94.78.24.9-3.6%7.0%2.3%-1.5%3.6%(2.6%)(0.2%)-4.9%-4.9%7.0%3.6%-(0.8%)5.6%6.4%(0.2%)-6.1%-28.1-27.8-20.5-20.414.327.9-17.815.6-16.5-1.1%0.9%1.9%-0.8%1.1%-1.0%-2.4%0.3%1.0%0.32.30.60.62.72.90.30.40.2OM GroupOMG-$16.12$33$15$5226.86.20.490.48-PolyoneRPMPOLRPM-$15.9026.99$1628$1

216、017$1,4093,56013.315.511.214.00.961.120.871.086.78.76.28.0-1.0%3.2%1.51.5RockwoodA. SchulmanValsparROCSHLMVALBuy-Hold$46.1522.9652.00$572854$301628$3,5836784,74310.710.916.010.39.914.40.780.791.160.790.771.126.45.09.66.04.79.17.5%9.6%5.4%6.3%11.3%6.3%13.2-18.515.8-15.8-2.7%1.4%1.71.8Specialty Chemic

217、al Average14.011.71.020.917.26.43.9%5.1%21.718.01.4%1.3CoatingsPPGSherwin WilliamsValsparRPMPPGSHWVALRPMHold-Hold-$111.37141.1352.0027$1151425428$66692817$18,15514,4844,7433,56014.022.016.015.515.918.214.414.01.021.601.161.121.231.411.121.089.113.19.68.710.511.49.18.04.8%-5.4%4.6%-6.3%21.0-18.5-21.8

218、-15.8-2.0%1.0%1.4%3.2%1.30.71.81.5Coatings Average16.915.61.221.2110.19.85.1%5.5%19.818.81.9%1.4Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, FactsetPage70DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.ChemicalsScorecardChemicals/Commodity10August2012-Figure 142: Chemicals valuation ratios cont.Market Segment/Price52-WeekMkt CapP/E

219、RatioP/E Rel. to S&P 500 EV/EBITDAFCF YieldP/FCFDiv.Net Debt/CompanySymbolRating8/9/12Range($MM)2012E2013E2012E2013E 2012E 2013E2012E2013E2012E2013EYieldLTM EBITDAIndustrial GasesAirgasAir ProductsARGAPDHoldBuy$83.3884.04$9393$5872$6,39217,76920.415.417.813.71.481.121.381.069.68.28.77.52.3%(3.5%)4.5

220、%(3.1%)-28.722.41.4%2.7%2.11.1PraxairPXBuy$107.97$117$89$32,24919.117.01.391.3211.210.20.8%1.6%120.461.61.9%2.0Industrial Gases Average18.316.11.331.259.78.8-0.1%1.0%45.942.02.0%1.7Differentiated ChemicalsCelaneseDow ChemicalDupontCEDOWDDBuyHoldBuy$39.9829.8650.54$533658$292137$6,32135,10347,01910.4

221、16.111.98.611.910.90.751.170.860.670.930.846.97.68.06.26.77.54.8%2.8%5.6%7.1%4.1%7.3%21.035.317.814.124.513.70.6%3.0%3.2%1.82.31.6FMCFMC-$54.23$56$32$7,44715.613.71.131.069.48.50.6%0.5Eastman ChemicalHuntsmanEMNHUNBuy-$54.6813.71$5616$328$8,3473,33810.36.68.76.60.750.480.670.517.65.06.14.96.3%0.0%10

222、.9%0.0%16.09.21.8%2.9%0.62.1KratonKRA-$21.57$31$14$69510.67.80.770.615.94.8-1.5OMNOVA SolutionsOMNBuy$7.51$115$66$35010.79.40.780.734.54.218.5%15.3%6.5-2.7PPGPPGHold$111.37$115$66$18,15514.015.91.021.239.110.54.8%4.6%21.021.82.0%1.3Differentiated Chemical Average11.810.40.90.87.16.66.1%7.0%19.616.72

223、.0%1.6Commodity ChemicalsGeorgia GulfGGC-US-$36.69$38$12$1,26713.910.11.010.786.25.310.7-KronosLyondellBasellKROLYBHoldBuy$18.7447.35$2647$1323$2,17227,2248.08.78.08.10.580.630.620.635.35.05.24.98.9%11.6%12.1%13.2%11.28.68.35.7%-0.2MethanexOlinPetrologisticsTPC GroupTronoxMXOLNPDHTPCTROX-$12.7420.86

224、13.2710.5022.47$1323171738$51610915$4631,6691,8524992,8146.811.212.56.06.96.510.28.54.85.20.500.810.910.440.500.500.790.660.370.404.25.212.910.45.13.94.88.03.53.6-3.8%-0.0-Westlake ChemicalWLKHold$67.05$70$31$4,46714.311.91.040.926.25.41.8%4.2%57.023.70.4%-0.5Commodity Chemical Average9.88.10.70.66.

225、75.06.6%7.9%21.916.03.3%1.2Ag BiotechMonsantoSyngentaDupontMONSYNN-CHDDBuyBuy$88.62338.1050.54$9034058$5921137$47,26230,63847,01923.915.511.920.613.910.91.741.120.861.601.080.8412.210.08.011.39.27.54.4%4.2%5.6%3.8%5.5%7.3%22.723.617.826.218.113.71.3%2.5%3.2%0.00.31.6Ag Biotech Average17.115.11.21.21

226、0.19.34.8%5.5%21.319.42.3%0.6Agchems/FertilizersTSX:aguAgriumAGUBuy$97.34$98$60$15,3809.59.80.690.768.19.96.2%6.7%16.314.90.1%0.9CF IndustriesCF-$212.86$215$115$13,3468.09.0-4.34.80.5%0.2Compass MineralsCMPHold$72.23$81$63$2,38921.912.81.590.9911.27.71.5%5.5%65.718.32.5%1.2Intrepid PotashIPI-$22.28$

227、36$18$1,67617.814.3-7.56.2-0.3MosaicPotash Corp.MOSPOTHoldHold$58.6543.09$7460$4437$24,95437,01113.112.311.611.00.950.890.900.867.08.46.37.64.2%4.3%3.6%6.9%24.023.327.814.60.5%0.6%-0.90.8Ag/Fertilizer AverageChemical Average (ex-Ag.)15.513.213.011.21.01.00.90.97.87.47.16.54.0%0.05.7%0.132.323.818.92

228、0.20.8%0.00.31.3S&P 500SPX$ 1,402.80$ 1,422$ 1,075$ 12,680,00313.812.9Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, FactsetDeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.Page71ChemicalsScorecardChemicals/Commodity10August2012-Figure 143: Chemicals valuation metricsMarket Segment/Price52-WeekMkt CapEVEarnings Per ShareEPS ChangeEBITD

229、A Per ShareFCF Per ShareCompanySymbolRating8/9/12Range($MM)($MM)2012E2013E2012E2013E2012E2013E2012E2013ESpecialty ChemicalsAlbemarleAshlandCabotChemturaCytecEcolabFerroH.B. FullerALBASHCBTCHMTCYTECLFOEFULBuyBuyHoldBuyBuyBuyHold$ 60.87$ 71.17$ 37.29$ 16.30$ 63.65$ 64.53$ 3.52$ 30.02$6972451865691033$

230、38412283244317$5,4285,5852,4451,6012,93118,8363041,497$5,7498,7092,7592,1753,16224,9286301,579$4.80$6.35$3.20$1.54$2.95$3.00$0.19$2.18$5.35$7.35$4.00$1.96$4.60$3.50$0.45$2.601%52%0%38%(19%)22%(73%)14%11%106%25%27%56%17%133%19%$7.94$16.87$7.38$4.45$8.23$7.51$1.27$4.49$8.76$17.86$9.66$5.24$9.32$8.23$1

231、.68$5.28$2.164.980.871.000.962.32(0.09)(0.06)$2.984.991.341.77(0.50)3.630.23(0.06)W.R. GraceGRA$ 57.71$61$30$4,325$3,359$4.14$4.53$8.61$9.63$2.91$4.253MMinerals TechnologiesNewMarket Corp.OM GroupPolyoneRPMRockwoodA. SchulmanValsparMMMMTXNEUOMGPOLRPMROCSHLMVALHold-BuyHold$ 91.59$ 65.79$ 246.23$ 16.1

232、2$ 15.90$ 26.99$ 46.15$ 22.96$ 52.00$9269249331628572854$6946137151017301628$65,0821,1613,3015221,4093,5603,5836784,743$67,9988503,4961,1281,9244,3715,3236295,806$6.50$4.10$17.87$2.38$1.20$1.74$4.30$2.11$3.25$7.00$4.48$18.23$2.62$1.42$1.93$4.50$2.32$3.609%9%26%(39%)18%11%7%10%22%8%9%2%10%18%11%5%10%

233、11%$11.09$9.36$30.21$7.51$3.15$3.85$10.46$4.09$6.35$11.84$9.76$30.24$8.09$3.45$4.15$11.05$4.36$6.71$4.463.2117.83-1.31-3.482.202.81$5.553.2116.34-1.43-2.932.603.30Specialty Chemical AverageCoatings6%28%PPGSherwin-WilliamsValsparRPMPPGSHWVALRPMHoldHold-$ 111.37$ 141.13$ 52.00$ 26.99$1151425428$666928

234、17$18,15514,4844,7433,560$21,55115,4375,8064,371$7.95$6.41$3.25$1.74$7.00$7.74$3.60$1.9316%32%22%11%(12%)21%11%11%$15.22$11.36$6.35$3.85$13.59$13.02$6.71$4.15$5.315.862.81-$5.116.753.30-Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Factset20%8%Page72DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.ChemicalsScorecardChemicals/Commodity

235、10August2012-Figure 144: Chemicals valuation metrics cont.Market Segment/Price52-WeekMkt CapEVEarnings Per ShareEPS ChangeEBITDA Per ShareFCF Per ShareCompanySymbolRating8/9/12Range($MM)($MM)2012E2013E2012E2013E2012E2013E2012E2013EIndustrial GasesAirgasAir ProductsPraxairARGAPDPXHoldBuyBuy$ 83.38$ 8

236、4.04$ 107.97$9393117$587289$6,39217,76932,249$ 8,145$ 20,732$ 39,467$4.09$5.45$5.65$4.70$6.15$6.3523%(5%)4%15%13%12%$10.88$11.72$11.63$12.03$12.89$12.77$1.91 $(2.93) $0.90 $3.72(2.61)1.75Industrial Gases AverageDifferentiated Chemicals7%13%CelaneseDow ChemicalDupontFMCEastman ChemicalHuntsmanKratonO

237、MNOVA SolutionsPPGCEDOWDDFMCEMNHUNKRAOMNPPGBuyHoldBuy-Buy-BuyHold$ 39.98$ 29.86$ 50.54$ 54.23$ 54.68$ 13.71$ 21.57$ 7.51$ 111.37$53365856561631115115$29213732328146666$6,32135,10347,0197,4478,3473,33869535018,155$8,49755,77958,9308,13012,5896,73799953721,551$3.85$1.85$4.25$3.49$5.30$2.07$2.04$0.70$7

238、.95$4.65$2.50$4.65$3.96$6.30$2.08$2.75$0.80$7.00(14%)(28%)8%17%18%22%(34%)31%16%21%35%9%14%19%1%35%14%(12%)$7.73$6.23$0.00$6.15$11.57$5.70$5.29$1.08$15.22$8.78$7.10$8.37$6.76$14.32$5.81$6.51$2.75$13.59$1.900.842.84-3.42-1.155.31$2.831.223.68-5.94-0.065.11Differentiated Chemical AverageCommodity Chem

239、icals4%15%Georgia GulfGGC-US$36.69$38$12$1,267$1,785$2.64$3.65164%38%$8.35$9.67$3.43$3.62KronosLyondellBasellMethanexOlinPetrologisticsTPC GroupTronoxWestlake ChemicalKROLYBMXOLNPDHTPCTROXWLKHoldBuy-Hold$18.7447.3512.7420.8613.2710.5022.4767.05$2647132317173870$13235161091531$2,17227,2244631,6691,85

240、24992,8144,467$2,57729,6665051,8882,1529683,0874,121$2.35$5.45$1.87$1.86$1.06$1.74$3.24$4.67$2.35$5.85$1.96$2.04$1.56$2.20$4.34$5.62(20%)17%15%13%(3%)5%40%(0%)7%5%10%47%26%34%20%$4.22$10.31$3.09$4.54NM$1.96$8.14$10.01$4.26$10.84$3.29$4.90NM$5.85$11.34$11.42$1.675.50-(0.56)-1.18$2.266.24-1.35-2.83Com

241、modity Chemical AverageAg Biotech29%21%MonsantoSyngentaDupontMONSYNN-CHDDBuyBuy$ 88.62$ 338.10$ 50.54$9034058$5921137$47,26230,63847,019$ 47,611$ 31,670$ 58,930$3.70$21.86$4.25$4.30$24.24$4.6526%13%8%16%11%9%$7.26NM$0.00$7.87NM$8.37$3.9114.352.84$3.3818.653.68Ag Biotech AverageFertilizers16%12%Agriu

242、mCF IndustriesCompass MineralsIntrepid PotashMosaicPotash Corp.AGUCFCMPIPIMOSPOTBuyHoldHoldHold$ 97.34$ 212.86$ 72.23$ 22.28$ 58.65$ 43.09$9821581367460$6011563184437$15,38013,3462,3891,67624,95437,011$17,36713,9782,6871,50522,18940,674$10.23$26.76$3.30$1.25$4.48$3.50$9.94$23.64$5.65$1.56$5.05$3.90(

243、27%)16%(26%)(1%)3%(0%)(3%)(12%)71%25%13%11%$13.60$49.30$7.11$2.7$7.27$5.51$11.12$44.59$10.41$3.2$8.26$6.07$5.9918.971.10(1.34)2.441.85$6.5420.633.950.732.112.95Ag/Fertilizer AverageChemical Average (ex-Ag.)(1%)12%12%14%S&P 500SPX1,4031,4221,075$101.83$108.664%7%Source: Deutsche Bank, FactsetDeutsche

244、BankSecuritiesInc.Page73ChemicalsScorecardChemicals/Commodity10August2012Valuation & RisksWe value the sector based on the strong correlation (R270%) we have found between chemical sector valuations and our forecasts for returns on investedcapital. Key sector risks include an economic recession in t

245、he U.S., a surge in natural gas prices, or a sharply higher forecast for U.S. GDP growth.10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardValuation & RisksSectorValuation: We value companies within the chemicals sector based on: 1) forward P/Emultiples (vs. historical ranges, and the overall mark

246、et); 2) forward EV/EBITDA multiples(where leverage diverges greatly from that of peers, also vs. historical averages); 3) ouradjusted calculation of cash return on cash invested (“ROIC”) and the strong correlation(R270%) we have found between chemical sector valuations and returns on capital.Risks:

247、Chemicals volumes are tightly linked with industrial production, while input costsare closely tied to energy prices (e.g. oil, natural gas). Accordingly, key risks to ourforecasts include a recession in overall GDP (domestic or international, depending oncompany-specific overseas exposure), a surge

248、in energy prices, and sharp deterioration(or improvement, in select cases) in chemicals-intensive housing or automotiveproduction.AshlandValuationOur price target is based on Ashland trading at 11.0x 13E EPS in 12 months, a 15%discount to specialty chemical peers currently trading at 13.0x current y

249、ear earnings.This compares to Ashlands current 17% discount to specialty chemical peers oncurrent year P/E valuation metrics (10.7x 12E EPS for Ashland vs specialty chemicalpeers at 13.0x 12E EPS). Our target is also supported by our forecast of 9.7% ROIC in2012E and 8.4% ROIC in 2013E, and the clos

250、e correlation we have found (R275%)between chemical sector valuations and ROIC.RiskKey risks include failure of pricing actions to keep pace with rising raw material costs(key raw materials include base oil, styrene monomer, butadiene, propylene glycol,caustic soda, guar and wood pulp), a slowdown i

251、n the pace of the economic recovery inauto and construction markets, a strengthening of the US dollar (every 1% rise reducesEBITDA by $2MM) and a failure to achieve ISP acquisition synergies.CelaneseValuationOur $50 target is based on Celanese trading at 10.8x NTM EPS in 12 months, roughlyin-line wi

252、th differentiated chemical peers currently trading at 11-13x current year EPS.We believe this valuation is justified by the stability of Celaneses earnings profile due toits low cost, technology-based acetic acid production technology, its integrated hybridstructure, its leading market positions in

253、acetyls, engineered plastics and acetate tow,and its sector-leading exposure to Asia. This valuation is further justified by ourforecasts for Celaneses return on invested capital of 15.9% in 2012E and 14.1% in2013E and the strong correlation (R275%) we have found between chemical sectorvaluations an

254、d returns on capital.RiskKey risks for Celanese include new acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer capacity,lower acetyls selling prices, lower global auto builds, slower Chinese economic growthand delays in building its announced new ethanol plants.Page74Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.10 August 2012Ch

255、emicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardEastman ChemicalsValuationOur $63 target is based on Eastman trading at 10.0x 2013E EPS in 12 months, adiscount to differentiated chemical peers, who are currently trading at 11.3x currentyear, or 2012 EPS. We believe this discounted is warranted, at least initial

256、ly, by lingeringconcerns over the sustainability of Solutias margins as well as the enhanced debtprofile of Eastman post the acquisition. If the new Eastman can become a moreconsistent, stable and predictable earnings generator, we believe Eastmans discountversus its peers will fully close. Our $63

257、valuation is further supported by our estimateof Eastmans return on invested capital of 13% in 2013E and our analysis showing astrong correlation (R270%) between chemical sector valuations and returns on capital.RiskDownside risks to our forecasts include increased leverage (2.8x debt/EBITDA) afailu

258、re to achieve Solutia acquisition synergies increases in propane and paraxyleneprices (Eastmans two largest raw materials), a narrowing of the US Gulf Coast propane-propylene spread, price erosion within CASPI or Specialty Polymers, additional acetatetow capacity and lower global demand.The author o

259、f this report wishes to acknowledge the contribution made by Anuj Bhatiaand Abhishek Chawla, employee of Evalueserve, a third-party provider to Deutsche Bankof offshore research support services.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page7566.7.6.7.10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardAppendix

260、1Important DisclosuresAdditional information available upon requestDisclosure checklistCompanyAshlandCelanese CorpMonsantoTickerASH.NCE.NMON.NRecent price*71.17 (USD) 9 Aug 1239.98 (USD) 9 Aug 1288.62 (USD) 9 Aug 12Disclosure7,14,15,1714*Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg

261、 and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companiesImportant Disclosures Required by U.S. RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators

262、and Explanatory Notes.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of thiscompany calculated under computational methods required by US law.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision o

263、f investmentbanking or financial advisory services within the past year.14. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received non-investment banking related compensation from this companywithin the past year.15. This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year, d

264、uring which time it receivednon-investment banking securities-related services.Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. RegulatorsPlease also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent

265、 or more of any class of common equity securities of thiscompany calculated under computational methods required by US law.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investmentbanking or financial advisory services within the past year.17.

266、Deutsche Bank and or/its affiliate(s) has a significant Non-Equity financial interest (this can include Bonds,Convertible Bonds, Credit Derivatives and Traded Loans) where the aggregate net exposure to the followingissuer(s), or issuer(s) group, is more than 25m Euros.For disclosures pertaining to r

267、ecommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourwebsite at http:/ CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal vie

268、ws of the undersigned lead analyst about thesubject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receiveany compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. David BegleiterPage76Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Se

269、curityPriceSecurityPriceDate1.7.2.8.3.9.4.5.6.Date1.6.2.7.3.8.4.9.5.10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardHistorical recommendations and target price: Ashland (ASH.N)(as of 8/9/2012)80.00Previous Recommendations70.0060.003456789101112Strong BuyBuyMarket PerformUnderperformNot Rated50.0

270、040.0030.0020.0010.000.0012Suspended RatingCurrent RecommendationsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,2002Aug 09 Nov 09Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11Feb 12 May 1210/29/2009:01/27/2010:04/30/2010:06/04/2010:11/03/2010:04/27/2011:H

271、old, Target Price Change USD35.00Hold, Target Price Change USD45.00Hold, Target Price Change USD65.00Hold, Target Price Change USD58.00Hold, Target Price Change USD55.00Hold, Target Price Change USD68.0006/01/2011:06/20/2011:09/16/2011:10. 11/16/2011:11. 01/26/2012:12. 02/17/2012:Hold, Target Price

272、Change USD75.00Upgrade to Buy, USD75.00Buy, Target Price Change USD62.00Buy, Target Price Change USD65.00Buy, Target Price Change USD75.00Buy, Target Price Change USD80.00Historical recommendations and target price: Celanese Corp (CE.N)(as of 8/9/2012)70.00Previous Recommendations60.006Strong BuyBuy

273、50.0040.002345789Market PerformUnderperformNot RatedSuspended RatingCurrent Recommendations30.0020.0010.000.001BuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,2002Aug 09 Nov 09Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11Feb 12 May 1210/27/2009:01/13/2010:

274、04/28/2010:02/02/2011:04/27/2011:Buy, Target Price Change USD32.00Buy, Target Price Change USD40.00Buy, Target Price Change USD42.00Buy, Target Price Change USD50.00Buy, Target Price Change USD60.0007/22/2011:09/16/2011:06/20/2012:07/25/2012:Buy, Target Price Change USD65.00Buy, Target Price Change

275、USD60.00Buy, Target Price Change USD55.00Buy, Target Price Change USD50.00Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page77SecurityPriceDate1.8.2.9.3.4.5.6.7.10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardHistorical recommendations and target price: Monsanto (MON.N)(as of 8/9/2012)100.00Previous Recommendati

276、ons90.0080.0070.0012378910111213Strong BuyBuyMarket PerformUnderperformNot Rated60.00456Suspended RatingCurrent Recommendations50.00Buy40.0030.0020.0010.000.00HoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,2002Aug 09Nov 09Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10Nov 10Feb 11 May 11 Aug 1

277、1Nov 11Feb 12 May 1209/11/2009:01/07/2010:04/07/2010:05/28/2010:08/16/2010:09/29/2010:Buy, Target Price Change USD95.00Buy, Target Price Change USD100.00Buy, Target Price Change USD82.00Buy, Target Price Change USD60.00Buy, Target Price Change USD70.00Buy, Target Price Change USD65.0001/07/2011:04/1

278、1/2011:10. 06/30/2011:11. 01/06/2012:12. 04/05/2012:13. 06/28/2012:Hold, Target Price Change USD75.00Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change USD78.00Buy, Target Price Change USD80.00Buy, Target Price Change USD85.00Buy, Target Price Change USD90.00Buy, Target Price Change USD92.0011/12/2010:Equity ratin

279、g keyDowngrade to Hold, USD65.00Equity rating dispersion and banking relationshipsBuy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price45040049 %50 %from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that

280、 investorsbuy the stock.Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell thestockHold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months35030025020015010050044 %Buy34 %Hold1 % 9 %Sellout and, based on this time horizon, do notrecommend either a Buy or

281、 Sell.Companies CoveredCos. w / Banking RelationshipNotes:1. Newly issued research recommendations and targetprices always supersede previously publishedresearch.2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)of 10% or more over a 12-month perio

282、dHold: Expected total return (includingdividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month periodSell: Expected total return (including dividends)of -10% or worse over a 12-month periodPage78North American UniverseDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.10 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityChemicals ScorecardRegulator

283、y Disclosures1. Important Additional Conflict DisclosuresAside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https:/ under theDisclosures Lookup and Legal tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.2. Short-Term Trade IdeasDeuts

284、che Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that areconsistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Banks existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at theSOLAR link at http:/.3. Country-Specific DisclosuresAustralia and New Zealand: Th

285、is research, and any access to it, is intended only for wholesale clients within themeaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zealand Financial Advisors Act respectively.Brazil: The views expressed above accurately reflect personal views of the authors about the subject company(ies) andits(

286、their) securities, including in relation to Deutsche Bank. The compensation of the equity research analyst(s) isindirectly affected by revenues deriving from the business and financial transactions of Deutsche Bank. In cases whereat least one Brazil based analyst (identified by a phone number starti

287、ng with +55 country code) has taken part in thepreparation of this research report, the Brazil based analyst whose name appears first assumes primary responsibility forits content from a Brazilian regulatory perspective and for its compliance with CVM Instruction # 483.EU countries: Disclosures rela

288、ting to our obligations under MiFiD can be found athttp:/ Disclosures under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law: Company name - Deutsche Securities Inc.Registration number - Registered as a financial instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau(Kinsho) No. 117. Member of a

289、ssociations: JSDA, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association, The Financial FuturesAssociation of Japan, Japan Investment Advisers Association. Commissions and risks involved in stock transactions - forstock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the trans

290、action amount by thecommission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of share price fluctuationsand other factors. Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchangefluctuations. Moodys, Standard & Poors, and Fitch

291、mentioned in this report are not registered credit ratingagencies in Japan unless “Japan” or Nippon is specifically designated in the name of the entity.Russia: This information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute,any appraisal or evaluation

292、 activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page79Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.North American locationsDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.60 Wall StreetNew York, NY 10005Tel: (212) 250 2500Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.One International Place12th FloorBoston, MA 021

293、10United States of AmericaDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.222 South Riverside Plaza30th FloorChicago, IL 60606Tel: (312) 537-3758Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.1735 Market Street24th FloorPhiladelphia, PA 19103Tel: (215) 854 1546Tel: (1) 617 217 6100Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.101 California Street46th

294、FloorSan Francisco, CA 94111Tel: (415) 617 2800International locationsDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.700 Louisiana StreetHouston, TX 77002Tel: (832) 239-4600Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.60 Wall StreetNew York, NY 10005United States of AmericaTel: (1) 212 250 2500Deutsche Bank AG London1 Great Winchest

295、er StreetLondon EC2N 2EQUnited KingdomTel: (44) 20 7545 8000Deutsche Bank AGGroe Gallusstrae 10-1460272 Frankfurt am MainGermanyTel: (49) 69 910 00Deutsche Bank AGDeutsche Bank PlaceLevel 16Corner of Hunter & Phillip StreetsSydney, NSW 2000AustraliaTel: (61) 2 8258 1234Deutsche Bank AGFiliale Hongko

296、ngInternational Commerce Centre,1 Austin Road West,Kowloon,Hong KongTel: (852) 2203 8888Deutsche Securities Inc.2-11-1 NagatachoSanno Park TowerChiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6171JapanTel: (81) 3 5156 6770Global DisclaimerThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of

297、 its affiliates (collectively Deutsche Bank). The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from publicsources believed to be reliable. Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information.Deutsche Bank may engage in securities transa

298、ctions, on a proprietary basis or otherwise, in a manner inconsistent with the view taken in this research report. In addition, others within Deutsche Bank, includingstrategists and sales staff, may take a view that is inconsistent with that taken in this research report.Opinions, estimates and proj

299、ections in this report constitute the current judgement of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to changewithout notice. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a

300、recipient thereof in the event that any opinion, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes orsubsequently becomes inaccurate. Prices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice. This report is provided for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a s

301、olicitation of anoffer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst judgement.As a result of Deutsche Banks March 2010 acquisition of BHF-Bank AG, a security may be covered by more t

302、han one analyst within the Deutsche Bank group. Each of these analysts may use differing methodologiesto value the security; as a result, the recommendations may differ and the price targets and estimates of each may vary widely.In August 2009, Deutsche Bank instituted a new policy whereby analysts

303、may choose not to set or maintain a target price of certain issuers under coverage with a Hold rating. In particular, this will typically occur forHold rated stocks having a market cap smaller than most other companies in its sector or region. We believe that such policy will allow us to make best u

304、se of our resources. Please visit our website athttp:/ to determine the target price of any stock.The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a resul

305、t of pricefluctuations and other factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investors currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is notnecessarily indicative of future results. Deutsche Bank may with respect to securi

306、ties covered by this report, sell to or buy from customers on a principal basis, and consider this report in deciding to trade on aproprietary basis.Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investors home jurisdiction. In th

307、e U.S. this report is approved and/or distributed by DeutscheBank Securities Inc., a member of the NYSE, the NASD, NFA and SIPC. In Germany this report is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt authorized by the BaFin. In the United Kingdom thisreport is approved and/or communica

308、ted by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UKand authorized by the BaFin. This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Sec

309、urities Korea Co. This report is distributed in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG,Singapore Branch, and recipients in Singapore of this report are to contact Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. Where this report is issued orpromu

310、lgated in Singapore to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations), Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branchaccepts legal responsibility to such person for the contents of this report. In Japan this rep

311、ort is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc. The information contained in this report does not constitute theprovision of investment advice. In Australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial product referred to in th

312、is report and consider the PDS before making anydecision about whether to acquire the product. Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register Number in South Africa: 1998/003298/10). Additional informationrelative to securities, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without DeutscheBanks prior written consent. Please cite source when quoting.Copyright 2012 Deutsche Bank AG