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1、MIGA的外部挑战和机遇的外部挑战和机遇The political risk investment insurance industry has been growing rapidly at the rate of 20-40 percent a year. However, the industry growth is susceptible to volatility due to the cyclical nature of the insurance business and/or potential occurrence of major claims and losses by
2、insurers. 这种潜在的波动对MIGA来说提出了两类挑战：发挥反经济周期的催化能力（to play a counter-cyclical catalytic capacity ）；确保有足够的再保险能力的可用性以促进MIGA的未来增长。业务快速增长中潜在的波动性业务快速增长中潜在的波动性政治风险保险行业一直以惊人的速度高速增长，政治风险保险行业一直以惊人的速度高速增长，但潜在的波动依然存在。但潜在的波动依然存在。The global market for political risk insurance for investment currently enjoys a signific
3、antly rapid growth of 20-30 percent annually in terms of premium income (Exhibit 1). The market size is estimated to be as large as US$25-30 billion in annual gross coverage. Premium income by Berne Union members, mostly composed of public insurers including MIGA, has grown at 17 percent per year be
4、tween 1992 and 1997.Exhibit 1: Growth of Premium Income私营保险公司的增长私营保险公司的增长政治风险保险市场增长的动力之一是私营政治风险保险市场增长的动力之一是私营保险公司日益增长的满足投资者和贷款人保险公司日益增长的满足投资者和贷款人保险需求的能力。当今，大约保险需求的能力。当今，大约50%-60%50%-60%的的保险市场是由私营保险公司所提供服务的，保险市场是由私营保险公司所提供服务的，而而MIGAMIGA在开发私营保险市场方面发挥了有在开发私营保险市场方面发挥了有益的作用。正如汉城公约所规定的，益的作用。正如汉城公约所规定的，MIG
5、AMIGA相信其有必要加强与私营保险公司的合作相信其有必要加强与私营保险公司的合作关系，并且确保其为私营保险公司的业务关系，并且确保其为私营保险公司的业务活动互为补充。活动互为补充。近年来，私营保险公司的业务活动有举足轻重的增长，其业务量每年以30-40%的比率增长，占市场份额的50%-60%。 (Exhibit 16).(a)主要的保险机构包括劳埃德船舶保险公司Lloyds of London 、美国国际保险集团公司AIG 、 Zurich US, Chubb & Son, and Sovereign Risk Insurance. If the current industry growt
6、h continues, the premium share of private insurers couldbe as large as 60-70 percent by the end of the next five-year period.与公营保险机构更广泛的合作机会与公营保险机构更广泛的合作机会A wide range of opportunities are available for MIGA to collaborate with other public agencies. In particular, export credit agencies in Category
7、 Two countries and multilateral development banks are increasingly interested in investment insurance.Diverse Investor Needs and Unmet NeedsInvestor needs for political risk insurance are significantly diverse, and this is reflected in their differentiated use of private and public insurers. Some in
8、vestors have sophisticated risk management needs with a demand for large capacity, while others have relatively simple needs. Sizable unmet needs for political risk insurance still exist among investors, in terms of both the degree of risk mitigation and capacity availability for certain country mar
9、kets.Linkage to Capital MarketsA linkage between political risk insurance and capital markets as a potential means of transferring risks has emerged in recent years. Despite uncertainties in the pace of development in political risk insurance, this is an area where MIGA believes it can make a pionee
10、ring contribution to the entire political risk insurance industry through insurance of bond issuance in the short term and, potentially, portfolio “securitization” in the long term.Diversity of Investment Promotion IntermediariesThe majority of developing countries, including transition economies, h
11、ave established investment promotion intermediaries.However, their capabilities, resources, and commitment vary significantly. The investment environmentbusiness, legal and regulatoryalso affects the effectiveness of these intermediaries. MIGAs service will continue to take this diversity into consi
12、deration, mindful of MIGAs limited resources.Increasing Importance of the Internet in Investment PromotionThe advent of the World Wide Web has brought about profound changes in the world business environment, particularly in the ways in which organizations market themselves and employ information in
13、 their operations. The increased use of Internet-based communication channels in international business has significant implications for organizations involved in attracting foreign investment to their country, region or municipality.Unexplored OpportunitiesDuring MIGAs 12 years of operations, the p
14、olitical risk insurance industry has undergone a significant evolution. In this new industry environment, it would be worthwhile for MIGA to examine some unexplored areas of activity. Under MIGAs Convention and Operational Regulations, there are unexplored areas that MIGA can pursue in the long term
15、 (possibly in partnership with the private sector) for which positive developmental impact could be expected. Some examples may include insurance for non-commercial risks other than political risk, reinsurance for private insurers, and research and knowledge dissemination.Exhibit 1: Comments on the
16、Industrys Rapid GrowthThe political risk insurance industry is growing today at a very rapid rate: 20-30 percent a year. “ the private sector political risk insurance capacity is growing at a pace of 20-30% a year.” (Project Finance, March 1999)“Premium income quadrupled in the last 9 months (includ
17、ing trade credit insurance).” - insurer“Between this year and next year, our premium income is growing at about 40 percent.” - insurer“Premium income doubled in two years, tripled over the last 3 years” (indicating an annual growth of over 40 percent.)” - insurer“The global political risk insurance
18、industry is growing at an annual rate of 25-30 percent.” - brokerSource: Project Finance (March 1999); Private insurer interviewsFrom the demand side, investor concerns about political risk have generally increased over the last five years.(a) About half of investors surveyed plan to increase their
19、spending on political risk insurance for investment. Of these investors, 43 percent plan to increase their spending by more than 20 percent in the next two years. (b) Another driving force is the growth of complex infrastructure projects along with the continuing trend of privatization.(c) Moreover,
20、 banks have become more comfortable than in the past about buying political risk insurance, especially from the private sector.From the supply side, the “soft” market or excess capacity supply in general commercial insurance in recent years works strongly in favor of the growth of the private politi
21、cal risk insurance sector, as much insurance capacity has been pursuing the growth and profitability of political risk insurance (Exhibit 2).(a) The commercial (property and casualty) insurance industry is more than US$120 billion in premiums, with flat to negative growth and negative underwriting p
22、rofitability.(b) The political risk insurance for investment is less than US$1 billion in market size measured by premiums, with a 20-30 percent growth and high underwriting profitability due to the relative absence of claims in recent years.Exhibit 2: Commercial Insurance and Political Risk Insuran
23、ce投资者需求的多样性以及未满足的投资者需求的多样性以及未满足的需求需求投资者对政治风险的需求大相径庭，表现投资者对政治风险的需求大相径庭，表现在选择不同的私营保险公司和官方保险公在选择不同的私营保险公司和官方保险公司投保。司投保。有些投资者具有复杂的风险管理需求，要有些投资者具有复杂的风险管理需求，要求有很强的担保实力的保险机构承保政治求有很强的担保实力的保险机构承保政治风险；风险；有些则相对需求简单。有些则相对需求简单。MIGA has tried to play a unique role in its endeavors to promote foreign direct invest
24、ment to developing member countries by enhancing the comparative advantages (or public value) of its services to its clients.(a) This orientation is rooted in the historical vision of MIGA. The founders of MIGA envisioned the establishment of an independent legal entity within the World Bank Group w
25、hose sole objective was to promote productive investment in developing countries.(b) This has been particularly important and necessary for MIGA in light of the fact that this mandate can be fulfilled by other multilateral and bilateral agencies.(c) In the years to come, MIGAs services should be dri
26、ven by those comparative advantages that it has established over time. In addition, such advantages will be enhanced, refined, or newly acquired if necessary, to better meet emerging client needs.MIGAMIGA的优势和长处的优势和长处多边投资担保机构已确定了以下五个方面多边投资担保机构已确定了以下五个方面的比较优势：的比较优势： 承保严格承保严格Underwriting rigor投资者和私营保险公
27、司或承保人都认可投资者和私营保险公司或承保人都认可MIGA承保业务的承保业务的高质量。高质量。Political risks are thoroughly analyzed, leveraging the network within the rest of the World Bank Group, and environmental, labor and other concerns are addressed beforehand.(a) For private insurers, it is reassuring that they can have access to high qu
28、ality transactions through MIGA and this, therefore, is one of the important motivations for them to cooperate with MIGA. Through the interviews, five insurers/brokers recognized this as MIGAs strengths (Exhibit 28).(b) MIGA always obtains a host country approval for a condition for the issuance of
29、the guarantee, as stipulated by Article 15 of the Convention.(c) MIGAs unique role requires rigorous underwriting, which takes time and other resourcesand this contrasts with the quick response time of private insurers. However: The Business Process Review that was introduced in fiscal 2000 is expec
30、ted to improve MIGAs efficiency and effectiveness of the underwriting process; and For investors using MIGA, fast processing is less important than other purchasing factors such as types of risks covered, capacity per project, and track record and reputation, according to the investor survey.(d) Mai
31、ntaining and strengthening MIGAs underwriting expertise will be critical in order to underwrite highly developmental, but highly complex investment projects. Underwriting rigor is also important from the standpoint of preemptive front-end loss management through detailed analysis of risks and approp
32、riate pricing of them.预防和解决问题的能力预防和解决问题的能力 Problem Prevention and Resolution CapabilityMIGA解决问题的能力得到同行保险公司（解决问题的能力得到同行保险公司（peer insurers）和投资者）和投资者高度关注和尊重。高度关注和尊重。(a) 大多数私营保险公司认为在这点上是与大多数私营保险公司认为在这点上是与MIGA的主要不同之处。的主要不同之处。 Through the interviews, six insurers/brokers recognized this as MIGAs strengths
33、 (Exhibit 29).(b) Investors surveyed generally gave MIGA high ratings (higher than 7.5 on a 1-10 scale) on political clout and relationships with host country governments.(c) Problem prevention and resolution will be increasingly important in order for MIGA to be able to serve frontier countries or
34、highly complex projects. This capability is also a major incentive to mobilize capital of private insurers into highly developmental projects in which they would otherwise not underwrite without joining forces with MIGA.MIGA预防和解决问题的能力预防和解决问题的能力Exhibit 29 “MIGAs value-added includes the deterrent (um
35、brella) effect. Deterrent effect is obvious, with the backing of the World Bank group.” - insurer “MIGAs value is the deterrence effect.” - insurer “MIGAs value added included the loss recovery capability, name value, access to best client base, and host country relationship.”- insurer“MIGAs unique
36、advantage is its ability of problem resolution. With its World Bank network, MIGA can quickly muster expertise and experts and deal with the problem.”- insurer“MIGAs legal dispute resolution capability, based on its talent pool and expertise, is real and should be mobilized more actively in future.”
37、 - insurer“The key added value of MIGA, or being part of the WBG, is the deterrence” - broker主要投资者的高认可度主要投资者的高认可度Investors have a very high unaided awareness of MIGA as a political risk insurance provider. This is comparable with national insurers such as OPIC, but much higher than most private insu
38、rers. The next challenge is to increase MIGAs visibility among investors in Category Two countries and in some Category One countries where national investment insurance schemes are less developed.(a) Over 70 percent of investors surveyed in the United States and in Europe showed unaided awareness o
39、f MIGA, two to three times higher than the awareness of well-known private insurers such as AIG and Lloyds of London (Exhibit 30). (“Unaided” awareness means the first few names that an investor mentions without being given choices.)(b) Among those investors who use mostly public insurers and who us
40、e both private and public insurers, 85 percent and 81 percent, respectively, know MIGA, while investors whose needs can be met by private insurers showed an unaided awareness of 21 percent.(c) 同时，在美国受调查的非同时，在美国受调查的非MIGA客户的客户的80%At the same time, 80 percent of MIGAs non-clients surveyed in the United
41、 States and 90 percent of non-clients in Europe knows MIGA.(d) However, MIGAs recognition is not as high among companies in developing countries (and some Category One countries) as in the United States or some European countries. Increased and targeted efforts are necessary to strengthen communicat
42、ions in this area, especially in view of promoting investments between Category Two countries.(e) High visibility is important for MIGAs strategy so that, whenever investors have insurance needs that only MIGA could satisfy, they will inquire about MIGAs service.Exhibit 30: Investors Awareness of Po
43、litical Risk InsurersPractical Applicability in Investment PromotionMIGAs comparative advantage lies in its ability to provide practical solutions to client organizations through its network to investors. Investment promotion intermediaries clearly recognize this strength of MIGA relative to other t
44、echnical assistance providers.(a) MIGA has been developing the necessary comparative advantages in capacity building, for the last two years since the implementation of the 1998 reorientation. To date, MIGA received one of the highest ratings in client satisfaction with the service (Exhibit 31). In
45、particular, MIGA received the highest ratings among other technical assistance providers on the ability to deliver practical solutions and investor networking. MIGA also receives high ratings from clients on its knowledge and expertise (See Exhibit 26).Exhibit 31: 客户满意率客户满意率Client Satisfaction Ratin
46、g (Average: Scale 1-10)(b) In a relatively short period of time, MIGA has built these areas of competence through staffing and product development. MIGA has started to recruit staff with front line experience in investment promotion and agency management, or in consulting to private sector investors
47、. MIGA recently developed new tools that have enabled it to accurately assess and define the needs of the client, so that a solution geared to addressing these needs can be developed.(c) Continued development and improvement of these advantages will be especially important for three reasons: First,
48、the potential expectations of MIGA by investment promotion intermediaries are high, as demonstrated in strong interest by non-users of MIGA services. Second, most of these intermediaries, especially those that are relatively new and inexperienced, still do not clearly recognize which organization is
49、 the best provider of technical assistance for their particular needs. Third, MIGA should continue to differentiate its services from those provided by other agencies such as FIAS and UN organizations, so that they can be complementary to the benefit of the clients.Expertise in the Use of the Intern
50、et for Investment PromotionWith the launch of IPAnet in 1995, MIGA was one of the first development agencies to offer an Internet-based information service targeted to its core constituency, and has maintained cutting-edge capability since then. (a) MIGAs strengths in the use of the Internet for inv
51、estment promotion in developing countries are clearly recognized outside the World Bank Group. IPAnet was selected as a finalist by the Financial Times for its Business Web Site of the Year Award in 1998. Subsequently, PrivatizationLink was also short-listed for the award in that newspapers 1999 com
52、petition. Among investment promotion intermediaries, one of the key user groups, service recognition of IPAnet is comparable to the Economist Intelligence Unit, and higher than ISI Emerging Markets, two of the major information services covering businesses in emerging markets (Exhibit 32). On Privat
53、izationLink, 18 percent of users rated the content as “excellent,” and 63 percent rated as “good.” With regard to the usability, 26 percent rated it as “excellent” and 62 percent as “good” (Exhibit 33). Moreover, in several countries, companies advertised through PrivatizationLink were successfully
54、sold to foreign investors (Exhibit 34). MIGA is viewed by investment promotion intermediaries as the leading provider of technical assistance in the area of technology applications to investment promotion.(b) MIGA also enjoys a unique position in its ability to access key information from a wide ran
55、ge of sources, particularly, the World Bank Group, private sector business information providers and government ministries and investment promotion intermediaries of member countries. MIGAs unique capabilities in this field have been built over time through its extensive network with both investors
56、(through guarantees and other activities) and host country organizations (through technical assistance). The online content offered is sourced and packaged by MIGA specifically to meet the information needs of cross-border investors in the most cost-effective manner. In addition, through its technic
57、al assistance services, MIGA is in a position to assist member governments to improve the scope and quality of the information that those developing countries provide to potential investors, further enhancing the quality of the online contents.Exhibit 32: Awareness of Internet Services byInvestment Promotion IntermediariesExhibit 33: User Assessment of PrivatizationlinkExhibit 34: Exhibit 34: 促进私有化交易项目促进私有化交易项目的实例的实例
