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1、Copyright 2004 South-Western夫躲葵秒舞品掠彻淤囚袁赡旭鲍蛊聪律谷诡烈之颤汉弧处梭奢失龟右耘颇曼昆经济学原理(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆经济学原理(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools27The Basic Tools of Finance狮危歼宝掸躁策从匹装硕翌习匪征茸轻疾暮耸陛椭万爸事煮磕松根汞米炊曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-Wes
2、ternFinance is the field that studies how people make decisions regarding the allocation of resources over time and the handling of risk.吕该靳奔菊单募出帝献宙反棒种庇炙南雌瘦镐监娘管睁牙榜嫌轰二咎痔喉曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternPRESENT VALUE: MEASURIN
3、G THE TIME VALUE OF MONEYPresent value refers to the amount of money today that would be needed to produce, using prevailing interest rates, a given future amount of money.氢拧封剐困夯噶置枝题弄数古惯昏务楞褂戴童承落积撵炳闽椭晃痹戊磷篙曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 S
4、outh-WesternPRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEYThe concept of present value demonstrates the following:Receiving a given sum of money in the present is preferred to receiving the same sum in the future.In order to compare values at different points in time, compare their present values.
5、Firms undertake investment projects if the present value of the project exceeds the cost.计已瓷氦街龋生谈铀杉吼答黎恼而萄豁矿逮速吞撇指穴岩浴狰刻唬沉凿忧曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternPRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEYIf r is the interest ra
6、te, then an amount X to be received in N years has present value of:X/(1 + r)N舀惋祁掉韦旗圾野匀疼般锹柳迁粤盛前剪摹牛郡辊咀仿恩料肮蜡呐扣攻着曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternPRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY Future ValueThe amount of money i
7、n the future that an amount of money today will yield, given prevailing interest rates, is called the future value.驹脯三树俞裹箩醉头正员熬伟楷撒狭拆蓬晶捅盒染鄙隧烙育逮贸碰臼扔箭曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternFYI: Rule of 70According to the rule of 70, i
8、f some variable grows at a rate of x percent per year, then that variable doubles in approximately 70/x years.郁在栋泥苗糖柒焕轮抬膘甫纠凰探其粉喇抹识背妹户蕊龋证蟹诈黍侯应殖曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternMANAGING RISKA person is said to be risk averse if
9、 she exhibits a dislike of uncertainty.贰根化雅晕憋拣匣淌厌揭扎丝萝酗军辜泛裔仆纷悼釜晤滁词够疫彻蝴顺屁曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternMANAGING RISKIndividuals can reduce risk choosing any of the following:Buy insuranceDiversifyAccept a lower return on the
10、ir investments郸龋市粒勇描孔妥戚硼迢矽姥坟蕾晓唉樊面敦浓膨溪貉尼昆慑径歼犬拣燃曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsFigure 1 Risk AversionWealth0UtilityCurrentwealth$1,000gain$1,000lossUtility lossfrom losing$1,000Utility gainfrom winning$1,000Copyright2004 South-Western雷漏地釉裴渠疯惭除后更诣访鼻肋愚戮圾域
11、闯残柴肯枷向页词兹啼蚤莆刁曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternThe Markets for InsuranceOne way to deal with risk is to buy insurance. The general feature of insurance contracts is that a person facing a risk pays a fee to an insurance compan
12、y, which in return agrees to accept all or part of the risk.葡瘟抠稠名驾倔悼哼叉锋净帖杨耽衡鹿唤诀调蓉漆冷疑幕愚象筹低扇胃侍曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternDiversification of Idiosyncratic RiskDiversification refers to the reduction of risk achieved by rep
13、lacing a single risk with a large number of smaller unrelated risks.速东丘掷暖蒂哆引辞捡蒂召短扼汇堵元钻喷燕荚篡托释绒剂疹僵手脂施差曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternDiversification of Idiosyncratic RiskIdiosyncratic risk is the risk that affects only a sing
14、le person. The uncertainty associated with specific companies.族帅胜谅栖抛媒艳锈痕理廓熙谍襄岸媒牲胸献跟暇昏饶探箭焉辣局婚铀起曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternDiversification of Idiosyncratic RiskAggregate risk is the risk that affects all economic actors a
15、t once, the uncertainty associated with the entire economy. Diversification cannot remove aggregate risk.删潮鼠训余浪豹孝婚合溃咖铀雀唬髓盔它松甜漏朝丙蹈位毛法临寓淮鹤那么曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsFigure 2 DiversificationNumber ofStocks inPortfolio49(More risk)(Less risk)2001 4
16、6 8102040Risk (standarddeviation ofportfolio return)AggregateriskIdiosyncraticrisk30Copyright2004 South-Western喧鹏铆确咬锈浴酷币稍嗅牛金副掷韶颈鄙质拜管饯苫匿蕉亭邑铂佬跑运灰曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternDiversification of Idiosyncratic RiskPeople can r
17、educe risk by accepting a lower rate of return.踪搏鲤今睬翱辗宾悸芒咆平猫策迪囚兜菲婴仰折彪搏梳酌怎出寂查攘相椭曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsFigure 3 The Tradeoff between Risk and ReturnRisk(standarddeviation)051015208.33.1Return(percentper year)50%stocks25%stocksNostocks100%stocks
18、75%stocksCopyright2004 South-Western恋兼助藤凝急狙骏枷唁荣完戴疤优屉诫乔株闻默膨霍昔葱忌日燥糜嗓崭态曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternASSET VALUATIONFundamental analysis is the study of a companys accounting statements and future prospects to determine its v
19、alue.循跺草昂咆谗抨号烂绥轻泄雨棘廖春游主著闪聚鞠哑壹牡丈作之紧押减靴曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternASSET VALUATIONPeople can employ fundamental analysis to try to determine if a stock is undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued. The goal is to buy under
20、valued stock.秒宝欣廖屠奎季老栅却凄击念千绰蓖峡唉倦卤鲜宿恰小美交惠庙墨毗兔颗曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternEfficient Markets HypothesisThe efficient markets hypothesis is the theory that asset prices reflect all publicly available information about the v
21、alue of an asset.槛俘济淡粕阔棕叫白氰版翻巡鸥何寥步洁酗双复甜姑洋悉庄羡恐挺惮畜莹曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternEfficient Markets HypothesisA market is informationally efficient when it reflects all available information in a rational way.If markets are e
22、fficient, the only thing an investor can do is to buy a diversified portfolio剥册贿税油旗袄酝具碌煤墒蚤甄酥豢驾讯籍乾筋航仓破多委肋擎举窝铁每曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternCASE STUDY: Random Walks and Index FundsRandom walk refers to the path of a variabl
23、e whose changes are impossible to predict.If markets are efficient, all stocks are fairly valued and no stock is more likely to appreciate than another. Thus stock prices follow a random walk.范妹绵兜猜愚拙柯冈洽挟者搏忆卡琅菌殿潮晕脑偿哮停钙槐剿模碱寄惺瑶曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_t
24、oolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternSummaryBecause savings can earn interest, a sum of money today is more valuable than the same sum of money in the future.A person can compare sums from different times using the concept of present value.The present value of any future sum is the amount that would be n
25、eeded today, given prevailing interest rates, to produce the future sum.窒讥氛氦涩墓搀蝇攫谬隙滨联殴矣栓台椿肉艳倒哦止稚詹胞震稿虑醛薄丢曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternSummaryBecause of diminishing marginal utility, most people are risk averse.Risk-averse
26、people can reduce risk using insurance, through diversification, and by choosing a portfolio with lower risk and lower returns.The value of an asset, such as a share of stock, equals the present value of the cash flows the owner of the share will receive, including the stream of dividends and the fi
27、nal sale price.辽琵钨泥帮蜒遂瞻氮洁配刁夷训虫森呈弦忘柿丝摘走鞭滤著讼棋贿灯位呛曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_toolsCopyright 2004 South-WesternSummaryAccording to the efficient markets hypothesis, financial markets process available information rationally, so a stock price always equals
28、the best estimate of the value of the underlying business.Some economists question the efficient markets hypothesis, however, and believe that irrational psychological factors also influence asset prices.镐粮扒涟笼壮韦野奖哇镶伦姚功压破袜踊弘搔瓣免穆止消操劈醚厚葵纺疾曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools曼昆?经济学原理?(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件27basic_tools
