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1、Managers as Decision MakersChapterChapter6Management Stephen P. Robbins Mary Coulter tenth edition1Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Learning OutcomesFollow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.6.1 The Decision-Making Process.6.1 The Decision-Maki
2、ng Process. Define decision.Define decision. Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.6.2 Managers Making Decisions.6.2 Managers Making Decisions. Discuss the assumptions of rational decision making.Discuss the assumptions of rat
3、ional decision making. Describe the concepts of bounded rationality, satisficing, and Describe the concepts of bounded rationality, satisficing, and escalation of commitment.escalation of commitment. Explain intuitive decision making.Explain intuitive decision making.2Copyright 2010 Pearson Educatio
4、n, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Learning Outcomes6.3 Types Of Decisions and Decision-Making 6.3 Types Of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions. Conditions. Explain the two types of problems and decisions.Explain the two types of problems and decisions. Contrast the three decision making condi
5、tions.Contrast the three decision making conditions. Explain maximax, maximin, and minimax decision choice Explain maximax, maximin, and minimax decision choice approaches.approaches.6.4 Decision-Making Styles6.4 Decision-Making Styles Describe two decision-making styles.Describe two decision-making
6、 styles. Discuss the twelve decision-making biases.Discuss the twelve decision-making biases. Explain the managerial decision-making model.Explain the managerial decision-making model.3Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Learning Outcomes6.5 Effective Decision Making I
7、n Todays World.6.5 Effective Decision Making In Todays World. Explain how managers can make effective decisions Explain how managers can make effective decisions in todays world.in todays world. List the six characteristics of an effective decision List the six characteristics of an effective decisi
8、on making process.making process. List the five habits of highly reliable organizations.List the five habits of highly reliable organizations.4Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Decision MakingDecisionDecisionMaking a choice from two or more alternatives.Making a choi
9、ce from two or more alternatives.The Decision-Making ProcessThe Decision-Making ProcessIdentifying a problem and decision criteria and Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria.allocating weights to the criteria.Developing, analyzing, and selecting an alterna
10、tive Developing, analyzing, and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem.that can resolve the problem.Implementing the selected alternative.Implementing the selected alternative.Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.5Copyright 2010 Pearson Educati
11、on, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Exhibit 61Exhibit 61The Decision-Making The Decision-Making ProcessProcess6Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Step 1: Identifying the ProblemProblemProblemA discrepancy between an existing and desired state A discrepancy between an
12、 existing and desired state of affairs.of affairs.Characteristics of ProblemsCharacteristics of ProblemsA problem becomes a problem when a manager A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.becomes aware of it.There is pressure to solve the problem.There is pressure to solve the
13、problem.The manager must have the authority, information, or The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.resources needed to solve the problem.7Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Step 2: Identifying Decision CriteriaDecis
14、ion criteria are factors that are important Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem such as:(relevant) to resolving the problem such as:Costs that will be incurred (investments required)Costs that will be incurred (investments required)Risks likely to be
15、encountered (chance of failure)Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure)Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)Step 3: Allocating Weights to the CriteriaDecision criteria are not of equal importance:Decision criteria are not of equal impo
16、rtance:Assigning a weight to each item places the items in Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the the correct priority order of their importance in the decision-making process.decision-making process.8Copyright 2010 Pearson Education
17、, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Exhibit 62Exhibit 62 Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement DecisionDecisionCriterion WeightMemory and Storage 10Battery life 8Carrying Weight 6Warranty 4Display Quality 39Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. P
18、ublishing as Prentice Hall*Step 4: Developing AlternativesIdentifying viable alternativesIdentifying viable alternativesAlternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.resolve the problem.Step 5: Analyzing AlternativesAp
19、praising each alternatives strengths and Appraising each alternatives strengths and weaknessesweaknessesAn alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to An alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.resolve the issues identified in steps 2 an
20、d 3.10Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Exhibit 63 Assessed Values of Laptop Exhibit 63 Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Using Decision Criteria Computers Using Decision Criteria11Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Step 6: Selecting
21、 an AlternativeChoosing the best alternativeChoosing the best alternativeThe alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.Step 7: Implementing the AlternativePutting the chosen alternative into action.Putting the chosen alternative into
22、action.Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.from those who will carry out the decision.12Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Exhibit 64Exhibit 64 Evaluation of Lapto
23、p Alternatives Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria Against Weighted Criteria13Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Step 8: Evaluating the Decisions EffectivenessThe soundness of the decision is judged by its The soundness of the decision is judge
24、d by its outcomes.outcomes.How effectively was the problem resolved by How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?If the problem was not resolved, what we
25、nt wrong?14Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Exhibit 65Exhibit 65 Decisions in the Management Decisions in the Management Functions Functions15Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Making DecisionsRationalityRationalityManagers make consi
26、stent, value-maximizing Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.choices with specified constraints.Assumptions are that decision makers:Assumptions are that decision makers:v vAre perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical.Are perfectly rational, fully obj
27、ective, and logical.v vHave carefully defined the problem and identified all viable Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.alternatives.v vHave a clear and specific goalHave a clear and specific goalv vWill select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the Will
28、 select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.16Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Making Decisions (contd)Bounded RationalityBound
29、ed RationalityManagers make decisions rationally, but are limited Managers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information.(bounded) by their ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Assumptions are that decision makers:v vWill
30、not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesv vWill Will satisficesatisficechoose the first alternative encountered that choose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problemsatisfactorily solves the problemrather
31、 than maximize the rather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.choosing the best.Influence on decision makingInfluence on decision makingv vEscalation of commitment: an increase
32、d commitment to a Escalation of commitment: an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong. wrong. 17Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*The Role of IntuitionIntuitive
33、 decision makingIntuitive decision makingMaking decisions on the basis of experience, Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. feelings, and accumulated judgment. 18Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Exhibit 66Exhibit 66What Is
34、Intuition?What Is Intuition?Source: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Miller, “Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,” Academy of Management Executive, October 1999, pp. 9199.19Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Types of Problems and DecisionsStructured Pro
35、blemsStructured ProblemsInvolve goals that are clear.Involve goals that are clear.Are familiar (have occurred before).Are familiar (have occurred before).Are easily and completely definedAre easily and completely definedinforinformation about mation about the problem is available and complete.the pr
36、oblem is available and complete.Programmed DecisionProgrammed DecisionA repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.approach.20Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Types of Programmed DecisionsProc
37、edureProcedureA series of interrelated steps that a manager can use A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.RuleRuleAn explicit statement that limits what a manager or An expli
38、cit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.employee can or cannot do.PolicyPolicyA general guideline for making a decision about a A general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.structured problem.21Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
39、 Prentice Hall*Policy, Procedure, and Rule ExamplesPolicyPolicyAccept all customer-returned merchandise.Accept all customer-returned merchandise.ProcedureProcedureFollow all steps for completing merchandise return Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.documentation.RulesRu
40、lesManagers must approve all refunds over $50.00.Managers must approve all refunds over $50.00.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.22Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Problems and Decisions (contd)Unstructured ProblemsU
41、nstructured ProblemsProblems that are new or unusual and for which Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogram
42、med DecisionsNonprogrammed DecisionsDecisions that are unique and nonrecurring.Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.Decisions that generate unique responses.Decisions that generate unique responses.23Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Exhibit 67 Programmed Versu
43、s Nonprogrammed DecisionsExhibit 67 Programmed Versus Nonprogrammed Decisions24Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Decision-Making ConditionsCertaintyCertaintyA situation in which a manager can make an accurate A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decisi
44、on because the outcome of every alternative decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.choice is known.RiskRiskA situation in which the manager is able to estimate A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result the lik
45、elihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.from the choice of particular alternatives.25Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Exhibit 68 Exhibit 68 Expected Value for Revenues Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of
46、One Ski Lift from the Addition of One Ski LiftExpectedExpected Probability =Value of EachEventRevenuesAlternativeHeavy snowfall $850,0000.3=$255,000Normal snowfall 725,0000.5= 362,500Light snowfall 350,0000.2= 70,000 $687,50026Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Decisi
47、on Making ConditionsUncertaintyUncertaintyLimited information prevents estimation of outcome Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, p
48、roblem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut feelings.”hunches, and “gut feelings.”v vMaximax:Maximax: the optimistic managers choice to maximize the the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoffmaximum payoffv vMaximin:Maximin: the pessimistic managers choic
49、e to maximize the the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffminimum payoffv vMinimax:Minimax: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret. the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.27Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Exhibit 69 Payoff Matr
50、ixExhibit 69 Payoff Matrix28Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Exhibit 610 Regret MatrixExhibit 610 Regret Matrix29Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Decision-Making StylesLinear thinking styleLinear thinking styleA persons preference f
51、or using external data and A persons preference for using external data and facts and processing this information through rational, facts and processing this information through rational, logical thinkinglogical thinkingNonlinear thinking styleNonlinear thinking styleA persons preference for interna
52、l sources of A persons preference for internal sources of information and processing this information with information and processing this information with internal insights, feelings, and hunchesinternal insights, feelings, and hunches30Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice
53、Hall*Exhibit 611 Common Decision-Making Errors and BiasesExhibit 611 Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases31Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsHeuristicsHeuristicsUsing “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making.Using “rules of th
54、umb” to simplify decision making.Overconfidence BiasOverconfidence BiasHolding unrealistically positive views of oneself and Holding unrealistically positive views of oneself and ones performance.ones performance.Immediate Gratification BiasImmediate Gratification BiasChoosing alternatives that offe
55、r immediate rewards Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.and that to avoid immediate costs.32Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Decision-Making Biases and Errors Anchoring EffectAnchoring EffectFixating on initial inform
56、ation and ignoring Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.subsequent information.Selective Perception BiasSelective Perception BiasSelecting organizing and interpreting events based on Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perce
57、ptions.the decision makers biased perceptions.Confirmation BiasConfirmation BiasSeeking out information that reaffirms past choices Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.and discounting contradictory information.33Copyright 2010 Pearson Educati
58、on, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)Framing BiasFraming BiasSelecting and highlighting certain aspects of a Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.situation while ignoring other aspects.Availability BiasAvailab
59、ility BiasLosing decision making objectivity by focusing on the Losing decision making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.most recent events.Representation BiasRepresentation BiasDrawing analogies and seeing identical situations Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when n
60、one exist.when none exist.Randomness BiasRandomness BiasCreating unfounded meaning out of random events.Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.34Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Decision-Making Biases and Errors Sunk Costs ErrorsSunk Costs ErrorsForgetting
61、that current actions cannot influence past Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.events and relate only to future consequences.Self-Serving BiasSelf-Serving BiasTaking quick credit for successes and blaming outside Taking quick credit for
62、 successes and blaming outside factors for failures.factors for failures.Hindsight BiasHindsight BiasMistakenly believing that an event could have been Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-predicted once the actual outcome is known (aft
63、er-the-fact).the-fact).35Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Exhibit 612 Overview of Managerial Decision MakingExhibit 612 Overview of Managerial Decision Making36Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Decision Making for Todays WorldGuideli
64、nes for making effective decisions:Guidelines for making effective decisions:Understand cultural differences.Understand cultural differences.Know when its time to call it quits.Know when its time to call it quits.Use an effective decision making process.Use an effective decision making process.Habit
65、s of highly reliable organizations (HROs)Habits of highly reliable organizations (HROs)Are not tricked by their success.Are not tricked by their success.Defer to the experts on the front line.Defer to the experts on the front line.Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution.Let unexpected circ
66、umstances provide the solution.Embrace complexity.Embrace complexity.Anticipate, but also anticipate their limits.Anticipate, but also anticipate their limits.37Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Characteristics of an Effective Decision-Making Process It focuses on wh
67、at is important.It focuses on what is important. It is logical and consistent.It is logical and consistent. It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.and blends analytical with intuitive
68、 thinking. It requires only as much information and analysis as is It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.necessary to resolve a particular dilemma. It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant It encourages and guides the gathering of
69、 relevant information and informed opinion.information and informed opinion. It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible.It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible.38Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*Terms to Know decisiondecision Decis
70、ion-making processDecision-making process problemproblem decision criteriadecision criteria rational decision makingrational decision making bounded rationalitybounded rationality satisficingsatisficing escalation of commitmentescalation of commitment intuitive decision makingintuitive decision maki
71、ng structured problemsstructured problems programmed decisionprogrammed decision procedureprocedure rulerule policypolicy unstructured problemsunstructured problems nonprogrammed decisionsnonprogrammed decisions certaintycertainty riskrisk uncertaintyuncertainty directive styledirective style analyt
72、ic styleanalytic style conceptual styleconceptual style behavioral stylebehavioral style heuristicsheuristics business performance business performance management (BPM) softwaremanagement (BPM) software39Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*All rights reserved. No part
73、of this publication may be reproduced, All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or an
74、y means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Printed in the United States of America.Printed in the United States of America.40Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall*
