银行业专题报告下阶段银行股投资展望估值合理静观政策和基本面其变130218

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1、wwwww1130120311010022012P/E=6.6PB20132181ROE2010-S10105101200232012010-60838047312 CPIS010-S1010510120042中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商1010-22013S101051209000620138% 9080706030011- 12- 12- 12- 12- 12- 12- 12- 12- 12- 12- 12- 13-12 01 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 013DDM15-17%10-15%ROE1.2-1.5PB115%40%2201115%

2、3中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商EPS PE9.7911.3418.04111.201.471.3212E1.191.833.2313E1.382.033.1814E1.512.333.56117.66.27.412E7.85.75.613E6.75.15.714E6.14.55.112E1.21.11.31112.5201.2013-1-8201329.wwwww2. 1. 11.2-1.5X. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. . 6. 6. 7中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商 82013. 8. 9. 9. 中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商1

3、 2013. 312 20123200812PB-2012. 1. 1. 24 20132-4. 35 20126 . 7. 8中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商0.070.120.120.140.120.350.052.141.01 0.92 1.34 1.41 0.94 1.64wwwww40.400.450.480.450.440.050.110.280.320.330.02 0.07 0.09 0.082 2012 12-20121230030%41%10%11QFII2012200812008-2012%(2012N)0.160.31

4、2012H0.310.482011N0.510.692011H0.420.6220100.390.4120091.001.3120081.250.87中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商0.071.481.410.011.650.110.321.301.450.111.200.250.721.652.400.251.300.290.511.292.270.111.150.240.360.831.660.151.090.310.471.773.070.402.691.310.591.063.570.051.100.580.14 0.30 0.38 0.59 0.081.120.680.22

5、0.450.710.100.020.026.920.050.127.570.060.1010.660.060.089.740.050.167.600.1616.200.0312.53wind2-3%201222012122013 120%中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商1225.0%201333.8%67.2%25.2%31.8%33.0%23.8%22.8%37.2%18.2%29.5%17.4%14.3%14.2%14.2%2.1%17.4%62.1%54.8%52.0%41.3%40.2%40.1%38.8%110%12%15%17%20%1.543 PB3CPI 320121

6、22013wind29.2%18.2%22.2%21.1%16.8%7.7%10.3%7.0%5.8%1.2-1.5X5.3%14.7%10.6%10.5%6.9%10.7%6.5%4.8%5.8%36.0%35.5%35.2%33.8%24.8%19.2%17.5%12.1%12.0%11.2-1.53PBDDM10-15%15-17%33%ROEROE中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商3 0% 0.77 0.93 1.16 1.315%10%0.810.850.971.011.211.271.381.441.621.69wwwww512%15%1 20132231233中国价值投资

7、网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商4120121215%40%21.31.31.21.11.31.11.21.11.01.2 1.01.040%8%1.24 20132-480%16% 16% 15% 14% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 8% 8%20%220061120078200961-2534HA220132013PEPB6.6X/1.14X3141 2013160%140% 1.4120%100% 60% 2013 2013E-PB中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商0%2013201320132013201320132013201323-

8、43-43344420122201332QFIIwind中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商13wwwww721ROERE220122009RQFII中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商201212CPI201212SLO3中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商QE32013CPI34146312201261 CPICPI中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商23中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商20138%1中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商1220126112% 81%25%11% 25%12%5 201210.

9、9%11.8%10.9%9.1%12.0%11.7%11.9%11.7%16.1%13.6%12.1%14.2%13.6%16.8%18.6%13.9%55.2%25.2%50.1%-11.2%16.3%-19.1%21.3%81.4%37.2%16.9%19.3%6.4%167.9%17.3%20.9%49.4%12.2%8.6%12.1%8.0%12.1%5.5%12.3%25.3%22.7%16.2%23.3%16.3%17.7%16.9%18.0%30.2%2013中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商13%14%2中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商2720131%wwww

10、w112012 201210%201310%11.5%10.0%7.6%33%0.40%1268.5%14.0%10.3%13.0% 13.2% 33% 0.60% 106 13.5%11.1%15.7%30.98%3BP中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商0.47%2013201320138%20127.8%201369.6%20138%-10%10%-20%2013E8.8%5.5%9.3%7.9%9.3%6.0%6.0%8.0%5.0%5.0%7.9%5.2%10.1%3.3%7.2%25%26%35%30%23%0.40%0.30%0.58%0.35%0.45%652542466

11、4081736.3%5.1%7.2%6.2%9.0%8.2%8.1%11.0%8.3%10.1%中国价值投资网10.9%最多、最好用研究报告服务商11.2%19.6%20.1%9.6%9.4%18.0%12.0%15.0%12.0%20.0%15.0%7.9%10.9%11.7%11.2%17.5%13.3%9.0%8.2%32%28%44%17%30%33%29%0.40%0.35%0.60%0.40%0.55%0.40%0.43%8975294011.611.42,96012.0%9.2%23.6%17.6%11.8%10.2%7.8%12.2%9.0%11.1%16.0%14.8%11.

12、5%9.6%中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商9201330030010%48-“”Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal

13、 views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii)no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.6011691%“”中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商/()(1)(2)wwwww13/130020%6300

14、5%20%263006300300300300-10% 5%10%10%-10% 10%中国价值投资网 最多、最好用研究报告服务商1568811001252220012251804826Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities”, regulated by the China Securities Regulato

15、ryCommission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant toRule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SECno-action letters thereunder.Z203740001934“”15a-6(a) (2)15a-6

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