《5 The Allocation of Depletable Resources》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《5 The Allocation of Depletable Resources（67页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、Chapter 5 The Allocation ofDepletable Resources1IntroductionIs profit maximization inconsistent with smooth adjustments to increasing scarcity?How do markets allocate resources over time? 2第五章第五章 自然资源的有效配置自然资源的有效配置Chapter 5 The Allocation ofDepletable ResourcesOutlineA Resource TaxonomyResource Scar
2、cityEfficient Intertemporal AllocationMarket Allocation3A Resource TaxonomyDepletable resource (可耗竭资源) not naturally replenishedmineral resources: copper, lead, zincenergy resources: coal, oil, natural gasRenewable resource (可更新资源) naturally replenished solar energy, water, forests, animals4The stoc
3、k of Depletable ResourcesCurrent reserves (现有资源储备) 按目前价格开采能够产生利润的已探明资源。Potential reserves (潜在资源储备) 按目前价格开采不能产生利润的已探明资源。Resource endowment (资源禀赋) 地壳中的所有资源储量。 地理学概念而非经济学概念。56Depletable, recyclable resourcesmineral resources: copperCan be exhaustedCurrent reserves can be augmented by economic replenish
4、ment and recyclingDepletable, nonrecyclable resourcesenergy resourcesA Resource Taxonomy7The management problem for depletable resources How to allocate decreasing stocks among generations while transitioning to a renewable alternative. The management problem for renewable resources How to maintain
5、an efficient and sustainable flow.A Resource Taxonomy8第五章第五章 自然资源的有效配置自然资源的有效配置Chapter 5 The Allocation ofDepletable ResourcesOutlineA Resource TaxonomyResource ScarcityEfficient Intertemporal AllocationMarket Allocation9Resource Scarcity稀缺的特性稀缺的特性绝对性：各类资源的共同属性相对性：需求与供给差异性：资源分布不均衡瞬变性：由供给或需求强度的变化而决定1
6、0缓解资源稀缺性的因素缓解资源稀缺性的因素Factors Mitigating Resource ScarcityExploration and Discovery (勘探与发现)marginal benefit = price - marginal extraction cost (边际开采成本) marginal scarcity rent : marginal benefit (边际稀缺性租金) To maximize profits marginal scarcity rent = marginal discovery cost (边际发现成本 )11Factors Mitigatin
7、g Resource ScarcityExploration and DiscoveryIncome growth & population growthRising demandRising marginal scarcity rentLarger marginal discover costs12Factors Mitigating Resource ScarcityTechnological ProgressTechnology progress reduces costs.Rising extraction costs stimulate the development of new
8、technologies.The rate and type of technological progresscapital Vs. labor13Factors Mitigating Resource ScarcitySubstitution (替代资源)substitute abundant resources for scarce resourcesThe easier the substitution, the smaller the impact of resource scarcity will beTimberlabor Vs. capital or energy14Facto
9、rs Mitigating Resource Scarcity Output Levels and the Possibilities for Input SubstitutionS1: substitution is possibleFixed-proportions: no input substitutionReduction in one input requires a reduction in output15How would the economy react to scarce metals16How would the economy react to scarce met
10、alsA model of the future copper market in the US.Variables current and anticipated demandssubstitution possibilitiessupplies available from production and recycling17How would the economy react to scarce metalsConclusions:The extraction rate grows rapidly over the next 100 years. Extraction peaks in
11、 about 2100 and then declines slowly. The ores containing copper minerals (0.5%) are largely exhausted by 2070. Copper is obtained from copper rock (0.05%). Copper is then very expensive but no longer “scarce”.18Conclusions:The services are progressively provided by substitute materials such as alum
12、inum, stainless steel and plastics.Recycling becomes big business.Copper prices rise dramatically from $2/kg to $120/kg; thereafter prices remain stable.The overall cost of copper scarcity is less than 0.5% of national incomeThe overall cost of completely doing without copper is 22% of national inco
13、meHow would the economy react to scarce metals19第五章第五章 自然资源的有效配置自然资源的有效配置Chapter 5 The Allocation ofDepletable ResourcesOutlineA Resource TaxonomyResource ScarcityEfficient Intertemporal AllocationMarket Allocation20Discount Rate (贴现率贴现率)假设今天的 100 元以 10% 的资金收益率投资一年后本金加利息为 110 元, 即一年后收到的110元的现值现值 (pr
14、esent value) 是 100 元, 用 110 / (1+0.1) 计算两年后本金加利息 (计算复利)：X = 100 (1+0.1)2，其现值现值用 X / (1+0.1)2 计算如果N年后本金加利息为W，现值如何计算？21Discount RateDiscounting (贴现)：the process of calculating the present valueDiscount rate：将收益流或成本流换算为现值时所使用的比率贴现率为正值, 贴现率越高表示现在的价值越重要22YearDiscount Rate, r (%)48122010676463332162253751
15、465911501412140.1在贴现率在贴现率r下，下，t年之后的年之后的1000元的贴现情况元的贴现情况Discount Rate23Two chief normative economic criteriaStatic efficiency criterion (静态效率标准)Choosing among various allocations when time is not an important considerationTo maximize the net benefits from the resource.Dynamic efficiency criterion (动态
16、效率标准)Choosing among various allocations occurring at different points in time.To balance present and future uses of the resourceby maximizing the present value of net benefits from the resource over time.24Efficient Intertemporal allocationsThe present value of the total net benefit for n periods is
17、 the sum of the present values in each of the years.本节分析不可回收的可耗竭资源 (depletable, nonrecyclable resource) 跨时期资源分配问题25A two-period model Assume: a fixed supply of a depletable resource to allocation between two periodsConstant marginal extraction cost MC = $2 per unitStable demand curve P = 8 - 0.4q26A
18、 two-period model If, total supply 30 units, allocate only between two periodsEfficient allocation：q1 = q2 = 15 units Why？ P = 8 - 0.4 15 = 2Marginal benefit = marginal costMaximizing the total net benefits of two periodsAbundant resourceStatic efficiency criterion27The Allocation of an Abundant Dep
19、letable Resource. (a) Period 1. (b) Period 2.28Benefits, Costs, Net BenefitsNet Benefits - the area below the demand curve and above the supply curve 152002Price($ per unit)Total benefitsDemand(marginal WTP)Quantity(Units)5108(MC)Supply 152002Price($ per unit)Quantity(Units)510Total costs8Demand29A
20、two-period modelIf, total supply = 20 units, how to allocate efficiently over time?A concrete example: q1=15，q2=5；How to compute the present value?Period 1: $45Period 2: $25The total present value of net benefits for the two years? 45 + 25/(1+0.1)= 45 + 22.73 = $67.73PriceQuantity8205101520MCP1Price
21、Quantity8205101520MCP230The Dynamically Efficient Allocatione1e2The efficient allocation: the cross point of the two curves representing present value of marginal net benefits. The sum of the areas (aebO2O1) for two periods is maximizedeO1O2abcd31The Dynamically Efficient AllocationThe net benefit o
22、f point e is not zero.scarcity creates an opportunity cost: the vertical distance ec (see the Figure).ec32Marginal user cost (边际使用者成本)When resources are scarce, greater current use diminishes future opportunitiesMUC Is the present value of marginal opportunity cost (the future marginal net benefit)A
23、bundant resource: marginal user cost = 0Scarce resource: marginal user cost 0A two-period model33Efficient allocationMarginal benefit = marginal costTotal marginal cost = marginal extraction cost + marginal user costAbundant resourcesMarginal benefit = marginal extraction cost = priceScarce resource
24、sMarginal benefit = marginal extraction cost + marginal user cost = price A two-period model34The Efficient Market Allocation of a Depletable Resource: The Constant-Marginal-Cost Case. (a) Period 1. (b) Period 2.Both the size of the marginal user cost and the allocation of the resource between the t
25、wo periods is affected by the discount rate.35Marginal user cost rises at the rate of discount only when the marginal extraction cost is constantAn efficient allocationrising marginal user costfalling quantities consumedA two-period model36Demand curve: P = 8 - 0.4q, Q = 20, r = 0.10, Marginal extra
26、ction Cost = $2, - present value of marginal user costEfficient allocation marginal benefit = total marginal costA two-period model8 - 0.4q1 - 2 = 0 (1) (2) q1 + q2 = 20 (3)q1 = 10.25，q2 = 9.75，= 1.937Class Work假设一种可耗竭资源的需求函数是假设一种可耗竭资源的需求函数是 P=8-0.4q, 边边际开采成本是际开采成本是2元。有元。有10个单位的资源要在两期个单位的资源要在两期之间分配：
27、之间分配：当贴现率当贴现率r=0时，在一个有效分配中，问时，在一个有效分配中，问(a)各有多少单位的资源被分配到时期各有多少单位的资源被分配到时期1和时期和时期2？(b)两期中有效价格是多少？两期中有效价格是多少？(c)每一期的边际使用者成本是多少？每一期的边际使用者成本是多少？38Homework假设一种可耗竭资源的需求函数是假设一种可耗竭资源的需求函数是 P=8-0.4q, 边边际开采成本是际开采成本是2元。有元。有10个单位的资源要在两期个单位的资源要在两期之间分配：之间分配：当贴现率当贴现率r=0.1时，在一个有效分配中，问时，在一个有效分配中，问(a)各有多少单位的资源被分配到时期各
28、有多少单位的资源被分配到时期1和时期和时期2？(b)两期中有效价格是多少？两期中有效价格是多少？(c)每一期的边际使用者成本是多少？每一期的边际使用者成本是多少？39The N-Period Constant-Cost CaseSuppose that the fixed supply were 40 unitsNo substitute is availableThe demand and marginal extraction cost are constant. How to efficiently allocate the resource among N periods?40The
29、N-Period Constant-Cost CaseRising marginal user cost reflects increasing scarcityAs costs rise, quantity extracted falls over time. (a) Quantity Profile.(b) Marginal Cost Profile.Constant Marginal Extraction Cost with No Substitute Resource41(a) Quantity Profile.(b) Marginal Cost Profile.At the maxi
30、mum WTP, demand and supply equal zero.An efficient allocation - a smooth transition to exhaustionThe maximum WTPThe N-Period Constant-Cost CaseConstant Marginal Extraction Cost with No Substitute Resource42The N-Period, Constant-Cost, No-Substitute CaseEfficient Allocation marginal willingness to pa
31、y = total marginal costa = 8, b = 0.4, c = $2, Q = 40 units, r = 0.10q1=8.004 q2=7.305 q3=6.535 q4=5.689, q5=4.758 q6=3.733 q7=2.607 q8=1.368, q9=0.000 =2.798 T=9 t=1,T. (1) (2)43Transition to a Renewable SubstituteSuppose that the fixed supply were 40 unitsconstant demand and marginal extraction co
32、sta substitute renewable resource: constant marginal cost ($6)efficient allocation?44(a) Quantity Profile(b) Marginal Cost ProfileAt the switch point the total marginal cost of the depletable resource equals the marginal cost of the substitute.The depletable resource will be exhausted soonerConstant
33、 Marginal Extraction Cost with Substitute ResourceTransition to a Renewable Substitute45Prior to the point, only the depletable resource is consumedAt the switch point, consumption of the renewable resource beginsAfter the point, only the renewable resource is consumedAn efficient allocation - a smo
34、oth transition to the substituteTransition to a Renewable Substitute(a) Quantity Profile(b) Marginal Cost ProfileConstant Marginal Extraction Cost with Substitute Resource46the substitute: a depletable resource with a constant, but higher, marginal costall of the first resource would have been consu
35、med by transition T*.Transition to a Depletable Substitute47The transition is smoothThe rate of increase in total marginal cost slows down after the time of transition.Transition to a Depletable Substitute48Increasing Marginal Extraction CostThe marginal extraction cost rises with the cumulative amo
36、unt extracted. e.g. mineralsMC = 2 + 0.1QQ cumulative extraction to datea substitute renewable resource is available at constant marginal cost ($6). 49Increasing Marginal Extraction CostAs the current marginal extraction cost rises over timethe marginal user cost declines.Quantity ProfileMarginal Co
37、st ProfileIncreasing Marginal Extraction Cost with Substitute Resource50Increasing Marginal Extraction CostAt the transition pointmarginal user cost reaches zerototal marginal cost = marginal extraction cost = marginal cost of the substituteQuantity ProfileMarginal Cost ProfileIncreasing Marginal Ex
38、traction Cost with Substitute Resource51Increasing Marginal Extraction Costconsumption of the depletable resource declines over time.The resource reserve is not exhausted.Quantity ProfileMarginal Cost ProfileIncreasing Marginal Extraction Cost with Substitute Resource52对五种可耗竭资源配置的总结和疑问对五种可耗竭资源配置的总结和
39、疑问规律：随着边际总成本的不断增加，可耗竭资源的消费数量逐渐减少现实：大多数可耗竭资源的消费并非逐渐减少，而是不断增加的，是否资源没有被有效配置？ExplorationTechnological Progress53第五章第五章 自然资源的有效配置自然资源的有效配置Chapter 5 The Allocation ofDepletable ResourcesOutlineA Resource TaxonomyResource ScarcityEfficient Intertemporal AllocationMarket Allocation54Market Allocations of De
40、pletable ResourcesIs profit maximization compatible with dynamic efficiency?市场是否只注重短期利益，而不考虑未来收益？55Appropriate Property Right Structures资源的潜在价值use value (使用价值)asset value (资产价值 )Efficient property right structuresExclusivity (排他性)Transferability (可转让性)Enforceability (可执行性)Marginal user cost56Appropr
41、iate Property Right StructuresProducers will choose an allocation that provides the maximum present value of net benefits for society, ifProperty right structures are well definedSocial and private discount rates are equalReliable information about future prices is available57Environmental CostsExte
42、rnal environmental costInefficient allocationDemandThe price would be too lowSupplyresource extracted too rapidly58Inclusion of environmental costs MC = 3 + 0.1QEnvironmental Costs(a) Quantity Profile.(b) Price Profile. (Solid LineWithout Environmental Costs; Dashed Linewith Environmental Costs)Incr
43、easing Marginal Extraction Cost with Substitute Resource in the Presence of Environmental Costs59Demandhigher priceslower rate of consumptionlonger time of consumptionEnvironmental Costs(a) Quantity Profile.(b) Price Profile. (Solid LineWithout Environmental Costs; Dashed Linewith Environmental Cost
44、s)Increasing Marginal Extraction Cost with Substitute Resource in the Presence of Environmental Costs60Supplyhigher marginal costhasten the switch timesmaller cumulative amount be extractedEnvironmental Costs(a) Quantity Profile.(b) Price Profile. (Solid LineWithout Environmental Costs; Dashed Linew
45、ith Environmental Costs)Increasing Marginal Extraction Cost with Substitute Resource in the Presence of Environmental CostsWhich effect dominates?61 current reserves discount rate potential reserves present value resource endowment 1. The amount of resource reserves potentially available at differen
46、t price levels.2. The rate used to convert a stream of benefits and/or costs into its present value.3. The natural occurrence of resources in the earths crust and atmosphere.4. Known resources that can be extracted profitably at current prices.5. The current discounted value of a stream of benefits
47、and/or costs over time.Terms & Definitions621. The resource endowment is a function of prices.2. Current reserves is an economic concept.3. 假设一种可耗竭资源的边际开采成本固定不变，由于边际总成本不断增加，一些资源由于成本过高而无法开采出来。4. 假设一种可耗竭资源的边际开采成本不断增加，则在资源转换点，边际使用者成本等于边际总成本，并等于替代资源的边际开采成本。True or False63Quiz 1在边际开采成本持续增长在边际开采成本持续增长 (存在
48、替代资源存在替代资源)的模型中，根据可耗竭资源的配置情况，的模型中，根据可耗竭资源的配置情况，分析以下几个因素是如何影响资源最终的分析以下几个因素是如何影响资源最终的累计开采总量的累计开采总量的贴现率增加贴现率增加资源开采行业属于垄断行业资源开采行业属于垄断行业政府给予每单位替代资源以补贴政府给予每单位替代资源以补贴64Quiz 2很多国家对开采资源征税，税收对资源在不同时很多国家对开采资源征税，税收对资源在不同时期的配置有所影响。现假定某种可耗竭资源的需期的配置有所影响。现假定某种可耗竭资源的需求曲线固定不变，边际开采成本递增，而其替代求曲线固定不变，边际开采成本递增，而其替代资源的边际成本固定不变。那么税收将如何影响资源的边际成本固定不变。那么税收将如何影响该资源该资源各时期的价格？各时期的价格？各时期的消费数量？各时期的消费数量？累计开采的总量累计开采的总量? 65第五章第五章 自然资源的有效配置自然资源的有效配置Chapter 5 The Allocation ofDepletable ResourcesOutlineA Resource TaxonomyResource ScarcityEfficient Intertemporal AllocationMarket Allocation66Thanks for listening！67
