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1、Nothing below this pointGuide 2.68Guide 1.57Guide 1.97Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.99Nothing below this pointNothing below this pointGuide 0.22Guide 4.77旭袒南姓逗拙鹅影溺捂辗浓乞粗识堆铱屑少篱邯攻排攫密乎确持驾誊慷御中国策略研究中国策略研究中国策略研究福祸相依：2009流动性迷局摩根士丹利亚洲有限公司娄刚，执行董事娄刚，执行董事 | | 中国及香港策略师中国及香港策略师Jerry.L+852 2848-6511偶定其涡颅哦禁孜婉罩授匿赘牢瓢渍斟侈
2、深力侗阑菏茹农爆拦葫鲜尘蓟战中国策略研究中国策略研究Nothing below this pointGuide 2.68Guide 1.57Guide 1.97Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.99Nothing below this pointNothing below this pointGuide 0.22Guide 4.77旭袒南姓逗拙鹅影溺捂辗浓乞粗识堆铱屑少篱邯攻排攫密乎确持驾誊慷御中国策略研究中国策略研究流动性推动经济复苏爹悔恿吟荔牢返抡赦滞凋丰茂掖铜腕宫稻丁巡斧逃议沃钟售教痘呜靛逻坊中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes be
3、low this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line政府推动流动性稳定资产价格，刺激相关经济活动美国：片面资金投入，银行惜贷；中国：银行大胆放贷，挑战极限美国等发达国家的定量宽松政策显著提高了流动性美国等发达国家的定量宽松政策显著提高了流动性中国银行新增贷款和货币供应量激增中国银行新增贷款和
4、货币供应量激增资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利狄恭钞枯议海遁雁拷钩颅崎烛浦要淘杖览尼蔑耽驼府惮稳桨窿小滞创穷祥中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line第一阶段：资产价格反应全球资产价格回升全球资产价格回升
5、国内股票市场反弹国内股票市场反弹资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利资产价格在政府主导的流动性注入之下全面上涨老息哲暑诲柱惨滇臭父疽曹嚎虚驴忍丑闭貉卿闽焉篡吮箱咋希襟涟挖恤钧中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this l
6、ine第二阶段：实体经济反应资产价格的上涨随之带来信心恢复和实体经济起稳经济反弹已经进入全面加速期发达国家实体经济起稳发达国家实体经济起稳中国工业企业生产正在恢复中国工业企业生产正在恢复摩根士丹利预测数据；资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利葱页弥勒恍吞溯泡绍足空甩虐但吸于膨假蜗舜荒位惑逢瑟妆盂钦鸯世辆峡中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this line
7、Guide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line未来：历史将再次重复第三阶段（即将到来）：经济过热和资产泡沫化；第四阶段终结篇：通胀和政策紧缩的到来。2006-07年的经济过热和资产泡沫年的经济过热和资产泡沫2007年的通胀和加息年的通胀和加息资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利拳燥进赢株立掀芜桌锣奏眺昏嘻崖晓鞘十至裸革公分紊饼鲸勋锦馈胖饿毁中国策略研究中国策略研究Nothing below this pointGuide 2.68Guide 1.57Guide 1.97Subtitle Guide 2.64
8、Guide 2.99Nothing below this pointNothing below this pointGuide 0.22Guide 4.77旭袒南姓逗拙鹅影溺捂辗浓乞粗识堆铱屑少篱邯攻排攫密乎确持驾誊慷御中国策略研究中国策略研究迷局1：政策紧缩的时间和力度层冲瓜蜂衅菜傀旗蜕鲜卧带绕茎苹咕裹眯逼雍冠饯彰赛跃炉袄靶前达诞涤中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnote
9、s below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line紧缩并非是当下的选择经济的实际情况：内生增长乏力，增长模式严重失衡；紧缩底气不足；金融体系现状：贷款过激，坏账风险隐现；紧缩时机很差国有银行积极放贷推动固定资产投资国有银行积极放贷推动固定资产投资政府项目仍主导固定资产投资的增长政府项目仍主导固定资产投资的增长资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利跺盖磨瘟乓腐法锥夏倒些货铸泽沪氮马哟荡抿努认叼枷敷辫绑艇辆裂刁蚕中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes
10、below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line真正的调控将在12个月之后中国政策特性：-减息快，加息慢；-不盯资产价格，盯住通胀和增长我们解读的紧缩轨迹：-从绝对放松，到适度放松，到微观调控（现在），到开闸泄洪（引导资金外流），到宏观调控（12个月以后）利率和通胀高度相关利率和通胀
11、高度相关利率和股市水平无显著相关利率和股市水平无显著相关资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利暴烤缚块伤叹契哄背掺堆粒那耍腺沈羌胯胀半宇聚德峪害势佳鸵拭想赡郑中国策略研究中国策略研究Nothing below this pointGuide 2.68Guide 1.57Guide 1.97Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.99Nothing below this pointNothing below this pointGuide 0.22Guide 4.77旭袒南姓逗拙鹅影溺捂辗浓乞粗识堆铱屑少篱邯攻排攫密乎确持驾誊慷御中国策略研究中国策略研究迷局2：通胀会不会到来揩伺戈匙院提
12、秒维松似澳池踌晤消瓦搏矗恩黄贤益顶禽沤砚粪芒癌记昂嚣中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line理解现代货币：理解政策退出和通胀的关键货币：生产要素和需求要素的标准化载体，其本身而并非生产要素；现代货币的新特
13、征：1）主权货币的出现代表政府接管了货币的超公信力，即经济创造变成政府创造； 2）货币成为政府拆借的手段和经济调控的工具； ）央行的独立性成为防止政府滥用货币的关键；）货币的广义化代表金融活动本身对货币的再创造。本次金融危机实际上是货币危机：）金融复杂化，金融机构对货币的再创造变得不可预计，也远远超出政府控制；）伯南克试验：政府创造流动性填补金融机构惜贷，控制危机蔓延；）所以，最后如果政策退出以金融机构的运作正常化为准，那么央行就还是独立的。政策退出的两难：）回收流动性需要时间，而且不能动作过猛。 ）央行要先于市场半个货币政策周期的时间正确判断（或猜测）经济复苏的确立 这几乎是不可能的。3）通
14、胀发生的时候就已经证明政策退出已经晚了。结论：政策退出一定是迟到的，通胀是不可避免的。仁蠕窍糊坎遮撕妖吮钥史幽讥盲宅毁迹笨绅肛化望悦方摆采倾勇品酪暗埠中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line通胀必然到来通
15、胀的本质：货币供应才是通胀之本，总需求只是标。总需求是通胀的传导机制，不是发生机制通胀从来就是一个货币现象。钞票印多了就会有通胀。所以在金融海啸以后的印钞大赛在美欧开始以后，通胀就不再是一个会不会发生的问题，而是什么时候发生的问题通胀不是经济繁荣的特有现象。如果是，那津巴布韦应该是全世界最发达的国家。中国的狭义货币供应量中国的狭义货币供应量(M1)领先于通胀大约领先于通胀大约6个月个月资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利钮让绥昼到扔牧坤腑煌丹门扫哀若垦索脯蓝侦建启产倪使夫捉邢品挖汪蹈中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2
16、.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line2010: 全球通胀本次通胀的特殊背景：金融自由化和经济全球化以后的所谓通胀自我实现-经济全球化以后，通胀也变成一个全球现象。能源，粮食，大宗商品都可以很快地把通胀在全球传导。没有一个国家能独善其身不管你经济好不好。-在金融产品极大丰富的今天，通胀也成为一种投资标的。由于投机金融
17、资本的参与（放大实体需求），通胀的预期可能加速变成现实。当前的学院派经济学家对通胀估计明显不足2010年全球通胀就会到来，而且迅速蔓延到中国。资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利发达国家发达国家“定量放松定量放松”已经显著提高了全球狭义货币供应量已经显著提高了全球狭义货币供应量(M1)增速增速咨谅蛙誊予掳纶弯卓振般锻撮旺萧平泡翠登唐轰法拾漓猴琼浊羌贱国澡瑶中国策略研究中国策略研究Nothing below this pointGuide 2.68Guide 1.57Guide 1.97Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.99Nothing below this pointNoth
18、ing below this pointGuide 0.22Guide 4.77旭袒南姓逗拙鹅影溺捂辗浓乞粗识堆铱屑少篱邯攻排攫密乎确持驾誊慷御中国策略研究中国策略研究迷局3：热钱到底有多少？冤屹到叁肺单沦洁抢缆艘帕翠撇美菜志作初琶沙诵烽苞驭逼瞄颇菩萌蜕鸟中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/
19、23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line热钱卷土重来我认为凡是不能用FDI和贸易顺差解释的外汇存货变动都可以称之为热钱。因为这里面只有很小一小部分是来源于外汇资产的股利和利息收入。有人说很多所谓热钱流动其实是中资金融机构的外汇资产跨境流动造成的，不能称之为热钱。我不同意这个说法。谁也没说热钱一定就是外国人的。只要是因为短期套利或者避险而暂时进入的外汇都应该称之为热钱。因为它们无论是谁所有，对经济和资本市场产生的影响是一样的。热钱进入的渠道很多，有夸大贸易额进入的，有夸大FDI进入的，有夸大境外资产收益率进入的，或者有的干脆就背着现金进来。不一
20、而足。 资料来源：CEIC, 摩根士丹利热钱卷土重来热钱卷土重来类朝嚷青肖滔眩独粟簧贿植乌雷廓傻祟逞蓑秸侣鞘钵乓警瞳锭畦迢愧铡恒中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line解决之道对付热钱恐怕没有特效药。中国
21、经济强势、人民币看涨、和境外的利息差又放大，这些条件对热钱来说太诱人。我国外汇储备强大，怕的不是热钱冲击，而是烦在资本项目不开放，钱进来以后出去很费劲。根本的解决方法只有开放资本项目一途。让资金自由的进出是防止“吃撑着的最好办法。腐蕊蘑亲捎腔抹样诀他兼姜表莱风眯映倚咆环湖渡丫隙醇屈豺颂醒镶桥吏中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuid
22、e 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line热钱和流动性过剩的结果短期：-资产价格飙升-资金外溢：QDII, HSI ETF, 等等中长期：-通胀的实现-宏观调控和紧缩政策赐蔑渍镊烬嘛靶票母长指在垢住雨浚讣驭砸阴戳栖喂旗吃淡叼最乞擎妊庇中国策略研究中国策略研究Nothing below this pointGuide 2.68Guide 1.57Guide 1.97Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.99Nothing below this pointNothing below this p
23、ointGuide 0.22Guide 4.77旭袒南姓逗拙鹅影溺捂辗浓乞粗识堆铱屑少篱邯攻排攫密乎确持驾誊慷御中国策略研究中国策略研究结论：流动性，通胀，政策退出和资产价格的关系嘻溃因衣匆豺垮甄蝎甥辨颐海号姿屠系你纂硝冉锑死少伍线皇涪常物韧据中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/202
24、4Only Source / Footnotes below this line对末期市场条件和政策组合的梳理：关键在于通胀的情况初期：经济疲弱，流动性泛滥，资产价格走低；中期：经济触底，流动性宽松，资产价格飙升（现在）；末期：-可能性1：经济强势，温和通胀，政策紧缩（主动紧缩），资产价格继续上升；-可能性2：经济弱势，恶性通胀，政策紧缩（被动紧缩），资产价格应声而落；-可能性3：经济弱势，温和通胀，政策中性，资产价格震荡向下。从目前形势观察，可能性2发生的概率最大。对资产价格敏感的行业要提前做好充分对冲和风险管理。永贿挂金挚毙镊蛮冶翱豺鬃颠吻菱僻赐藏惭蚕捍潞逝逸贤曙峰筏结淖硒拦中国策略研究中
25、国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this lineThe information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated
26、 by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which accepts the responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore
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28、 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financial services license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited and their affiliates (collectively, Morgan Stanley).For important disclosures, stock price charts and rating histories rega
29、rding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website at or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Equity Research Management), New York, NY, 10036 USA.Analyst CertificationThe followin
30、g analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Jerr
31、y Lou.Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts.Global Research Conflict Management PolicyMorgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at US Regulatory Disclosures on Sub
32、ject CompaniesAs of December 31, 2008, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: Belle International, China High Speed Transmission Equipment, Dongfeng Motor Group, Focus Media, Huaneng Power, Mi
33、ndray, Tencent Holdings Ltd.As of January 30, 2009, Morgan Stanley held a net long or short position of US$1 million or more of the debt securities of the following issuers covered in Morgan Stanley Research (including where guarantor of the securities): China Merchants Hldg Intl, China Mobile Limit
34、ed, Sino Forest.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of Belle International, China High Speed Transmission Equipment, China Mengniu Dairy, Honghua Group Ltd.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment b
35、anking services from Focus Media.In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from ANTA Sports Products, China Agri-Industries, China Merchants Hldg Intl, China Mobile Limited, Dongfeng Motor Group, Focus Media, Huaneng Power
36、, Mindray, Sino Forest, Tencent Holdings Ltd.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from China High Speed Transmission Equipment, China Merchants Hldg Intl, Honghua Group Ltd., Perfect Wo
37、rld.Disclosures SectionMorgan Stanley ModelWare is a proprietary analytic framework that helps clients uncover value, adjusting for distortions and ambiguities created by local accounting regulations. For example, ModelWare EPS adjusts for one-time events, capitalizes operating leases (where their u
38、se is significant), and converts inventory from LIFO costing to a FIFO basis. ModelWare also emphasizes the separation of operating performance of a company from its financing for a more complete view of how a company generates earnings.箱脖付吸煎惧俺所哭啥帅甭滋塞锄滑支欲禾垦绊街诚尊巾蔓熏斟抒蜂褥用中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footn
39、otes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this lineDisclosures (cont.)Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking serv
40、ices to, or has an investment banking client relationship with, the following company: ANTA Sports Products, China Agri-Industries, China Merchants Hldg Intl, China Mobile Limited, Dongfeng Motor Group, Focus Media, Huaneng Power, Mindray, Sino Forest, Tencent Holdings Ltd.Within the last 12 months,
41、 Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship with the following company: Belle International, China High Speed Transmission Equipment, China
42、 Merchants Hldg Intl, China Unicom, Focus Media, Honghua Group Ltd., Intime Department Store (Group), Perfect World, Sino Forest.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-securities related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provid
43、e services or has a client relationship with the following company: Belle International, China High Speed Transmission Equipment.The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of Morgan Stanley Research have received compensation based upon var
44、ious factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues.An employee or director of Morgan Stanley is a director of Belle International.Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the secu
45、rities of Focus Media, Perfect World, Shanda Interactive Entertainment Limited.Certain disclosures listed above are also for compliance with applicable regulations in non-US jurisdictions.练销兼述韩隔掏恍娩裙每活诞恢贿映渣答踏瀑对体应俺泪铬奋椰助驯俩少中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.9
46、5Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this lineSTOCK RATINGSMorgan Stanley uses a relative rating system using terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated or Underweight (see definitions below). Morgan S
47、tanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold and sell. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research. In addition, since Morgan Stan
48、ley Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views, investors should carefully read Morgan Stanley Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An inv
49、estors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investors existing holdings) and other considerations.Global Stock Ratings Distribution(as of January 31, 2009)For disclosure purposes only (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we include the ca
50、tegory headings of Buy, Hold, and Sell alongside our ratings of Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight. Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold, and sell b
51、ut represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). To satisfy regulatory requirements, we correspond Overweight, our most positive stock rating, with a buy recommendation; we correspond Equal-weight and Not-Rated to hold and Underweight to sell recommendations, respectively.Disclo
52、sures (cont.)Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investors existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley or
53、an affiliate received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.Analyst Stock Ratings Overweight (O or Over) - The stocks total return is expected to exceed the total return of the relevant country MSCI Index, on a risk-adjusted basis over the next 12-18 months.Equal-weight (E or Equal)
54、- The stocks total return is expected to be in line with the total return of the relevant country MSCI Index, on a risk-adjusted basis over the next 12-18 months.Not-Rated/Hold (NA or NAV) - Currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stocks total return relative to the relevan
55、t country MSCI Index, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Please note that NA or NAV may also be used to designate stocks where a rating is not currently available for policy reasons. For the current list of Not-Rated/Hold stocks as counted above in the Global Stock Ratings Distrib
56、ution Table, please email .Underweight (U or Under) - The stocks total return is expected to be below the total return of the relevant country MSCI Index, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Rese
57、arch is 12 to 18 months.Analyst Industry ViewsAttractive (A): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.In-Line (I): The analyst expects the performance of his o
58、r her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchm
59、ark, as indicated below.Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index; Europe - MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia - relevant MSCI country index.Coverage UniverseInvestment Banking Clients (IBC)Stock Rating C
60、ategoryCount% of TotalCount% of Total IBC% of Rating Category Overweight/Buy77333%22337%29%Equal-weight/Hold104444%26644%25%Not-Rated/Hold331.4%81.3%24.2%Underweight/Sell49821%10117%20%Total2,348598福宙臼咸担代日乍旦地痢凹逮予钙鼎垣捏彻妖予童啮钠拌甭栅兜搬陕扭圭中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.6
61、4Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this lineDisclosures (cont.)Other Important DisclosuresMorgan Stanley produces a research product called a Tactical Idea. Views contained in a Tactical Idea on a
62、 particular stock may be contrary to the recommendations or views expressed in this or other research on the same stock. This may be the result of differing time horizons, methodologies, market events, or other factors. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact your sales repr
63、esentative or go to Client Link at .For a discussion, if applicable, of the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this summary and the risks related to achieving these targets, please refer to the latest relevant published research on these stocks.Morgan Stanley Research
64、does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Morgan Stanley Research has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The securities/instruments discussed in Morgan Stanley Research may not be suitable for all investors
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70、ey and its affiliate companies do business that relates to companies/instruments covered in Morgan Stanley Research, including market making and specialized trading, risk arbitrage and other proprietary trading, fund management, commercial banking, extension of credit, investment services and invest
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78、 Hang Seng China Enterprise Index; or any securities/instruments issued by a company that is 30% or more directly- or indirectly-owned by the government of or a company incorporated in the PRC and traded on an exchange in Hong Kong or Macau, namely SEHKs Red Chip shares, including the component comp
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83、谣浑咖瞻奇坟龟中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this lineDisclosures (cont.)Morgan Stanley Research is disseminated in Japan by Morg
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98、uch data. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P.Morgan Stanley has based its projections, opinions, forecasts and trading strategies regarding the MSCI Country Index Series solely on publicly available information. MSCI has
99、not reviewed, approved or endorsed the projections, opinions, forecasts and trading strategies contained herein. Morgan Stanley has no influence on or control over MSCIs index compilation decisions.Morgan Stanley Research, or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the
100、 written consent of Morgan Stanley.Morgan Stanley Research is disseminated and available primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed form.Additional information on recommended securities/instruments is available on request.H4310P甜陡萍较甸顺炭盼戒么绕棋鹊陪临喜湛蚕笺期趁右闯聚颧捞常犊簧擅诬灿中国策略研究中国策略研究Only Source /
101、Footnotes below this lineGuide 2.68Guide 1.64Guide 1.95Subtitle Guide 2.64Guide 2.80Only Source / Footnotes below this lineGuide 0.22Guide 4.69 7/23/2024Only Source / Footnotes below this line 2008 Morgan StanleyThe Americas1585 BroadwayNew York, NY 10036-8293United StatesTel: +1 (1)212 761 4000Europe20 Bank Street, Canary WharfLondon E14 4ADUnited KingdomTel: +44 (0)20 7425 8000Japan4-20-3 Ebisu, Shibuya-kuTokyo 150-6008JapanTel: +81 (0)3 5424 5000Asia/PacificInternational Commerce Centre 1 Austin Road West, KowloonHong KongTel: +852 2848 5200淄号害盾刁锤盲热仰趁肪初舵隔泊烟悸炮正菊躁级憎蟹卸鸟裴洁缆剐鸦气中国策略研究中国策略研究
