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1、估算估算GuesstimationJason Zhou未经CareerVenture许可，任何个人或机构不得用于商业目的Before classOur objective and methodology2 Objective:-Understand what Guesstimation is-How to get the answer-How to present the answer-Be a masterOur method:-Conversation-Question lead-We do it togetherIntroductionWhat is Guesstimation?3 Gu
2、esstimation is more than market sizingGuesstimation is to get a general quantitative idea of a target with common senseReal work 4 Market sizing to drive business decisions IntroductionHow to get the answer in real work?Highest level: check the value-chainRaw material suppliers-Manufacturers-Distrib
3、utors/ Retailers -End CustomersIn real work without dataCold call or in-depth interviewsLit research5 IntroductionWhat is the role of Guesstimation in case interview? Back of the envelope questionNo data, no internet, no questions Will be given as:A single case or part of a caseBrain teaser question
4、s6 IntroductionWhy do Guesstimation in the case interview?To test:Common senseBusiness senseAnalytical capability CalculationCommunication to describe and summarize Comfort in real work7 How to get the answerThe methodology Have a try 8 How many passengers is Pudong airport handling each day?How to
5、get the answerThe methodology Clarify the question Landing/departing Domestic/international Laying out the structure # of passengers=# of planes landing per day x # of passengers per planeDeep dive on each element # of planes landing per day = # of runways x # of planes landing on each runway per da
6、y# of planes landing on each runway per day = # of hours airport operates for landing per day / time taken for a plane to landProbe for info/hints or come up with assumptions using common sense zero defect calculation Sanity check Review assumptions for sensitivity check 9 How many passengers is Pud
7、ong airport handling each day?How to get the answerTips 1. Ask for 30 seconds to 1 minute upfront to gather your thoughts2. Round your answers to calculation-friendly numbers3. When making assumptions, use calculation-friendly numbers/percentages (e.g. age groups 0-20 etc.) 4. Clearly label units5.
8、Avoid numerical ranges as they complicate the solution6. Use a “sniff test” or “sanity-check” the validity of each calculation7. Its ok to communicate doubts and mistakes with the interviewer8. Interpret interviewer body language9. Communicate each step clearly and concisely, and your thinking proce
9、ss10. Dont overcomplicate the solution simple is super11. Try to offer multiple appraoches 10 How to get the answerCase in group11 On average, how much does each cigarette smoked by a heavy smoker shorten his or her life expectancy? How to get the answerCase in groupHow many liters of house paint ar
10、e sold in the UK annually?12 How to get the answerCase in groupHow many gas stations are there in Shanghai?13 How to get the answerIs there any pattern in such questions?14 Top down / bottom upCommon segmentation dimensions Age, gender, income, season, penetration, utilizationYou can always further
11、breakdown by thinking about Process, value chain, highly correlated variables How to present the answerFace to face case15 Estimate the daily revenue of a Starbucks in Xintiandi?How to present the answerFace to face case16 How many rounds of golf are played annually in the U.S.?How to present the an
12、swerFace to face caseHow many bottles of cokes are sold in China annually?17 How to present the answerFace to face case18 Ages# of people(million)penetration ratebottles per month# of monthsbottles per year(m)0 - 5750%01206 - 107540%21272011 - 2015050%312270021 - 4030050%312540041 - 6030030%112108061 - 8030010%0.512180Total12001.89.5-10080How to present the answerFace to face caseHow many taxis are there in Shanghai? 19 THANK YOU!20
