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1、黄金的期货分析第四组：杨翔渊，金莹，李艳梅，邓第四组：杨翔渊，金莹，李艳梅，邓艳，田一秀，赵博超艳，田一秀，赵博超商务英语商务英语061班班国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析Price：27thmay2009ContractperiodofShanghaiGoldPrice209yuanperton国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析Supply nThe newly yielded gold from mininglongperiodofinvestmentandhighcostofminingproductionslightlydecreasednCentral bank
2、 selling gold CentralBankGoldAgreementlimitthequantityreducingsellingforsafety国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析Demand nGold manufacturingjewelryandelectronicsincreasingnInternational reserve MonetarygoldincreasingnInvestment demandGoldETF国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析Conclusion of supply and demand nGoshortinshortterm
3、nGolonginlongterm国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析3 3、Relevant foreign futures products - Relevant foreign futures products - COMEX&COMEX&TOCOMClosing price of gold future on June 8, COMEX (Unit: dollars per ounce)-ContractOpenHighLowCloseChangeVolumePositionJune2009(GLNM)951.2953.8944.4951.7-104642580July2009
4、(GLNN)950.1953.9943.6951.9-10.1497753Aug2009(GLNQ)950.9953943.8952.5-10.186348248688Oct2009(GLNV)950.5955.3945.9953.9-10.1156612480Dec2009(GLNZ)954.1957.7947.7955.4-10.1248244816Feb2010(GLNG)955.9955.9955.9957.4-9.93315298Apr2010(GLNJ)958.7961.5951.1959.4-9.7134415488-Tips:1ounce=31.1035gramsConclus
5、ion: closing price of gold dropped on June 8, COMEX.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析Statistical data of gold inventory on June 8, COMEX -VarietyGoldSilverCopperRegistrationwarehouse2,610,24264,143,95856,723receiptChange-20,286holdthelineholdthelineNon-registrationwarehouse6,089,39754,612,095763receiptChange-1
6、,827261,184247Stockgrand8,699,639118,756,05357,486totalChange-22,113-(Unit:Gold-ounce;Sliver-ounce;Copper-shortton) Conclusion：Inventory of gold is decreasing.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析Gold futures market on June 9, TOCOM-ContractClosingpriceOpenHighLowCloseChangeVolumeofyesterdayJune20093,0203,0153,015
7、2,9813,000-20104Aug20093,0263,0153,0162,9873,000-2597Oct20093,0283,0213,0212,9873,000-25115Dec20093,0303,0233,0232,9893,009-21517Feb20103,0343,0273,0292,9943,012-215,004Apr20103,0363,0293,0322,9963,016-2022,775Total28,612-Tips:Unit：yenpergram；Conclusion: closing price of gold dropped on June 9, TOCO
8、M.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析1year国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析USnGDPnThefirstquarterof2009theU.S.GDPfell6.1%,stuckinthelargestrecessionsincetheGreatDepression.Andthefactindicatedthattheglobaleconomysituationisstillgrim.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析PPInU.S.LaborDepartmentdat
9、areleasedThursdayshowedincreasesofAprilPPI,higherthanexpected,promotedbysignificantincreaseoffoodprices.Butbecausetheeconomicrecessionweakenedthecompanyspricingpower,thecorePPIofAprilonlymaintainedamoderateincrease.nDatashowthatthemanufacturedgoodsPPIinUnitedStatesrose0.3%.MarchPPIfell1.2%.Economist
10、shadforecastedit.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析CPInCPIYeardeclineintheU.S.hitarecordsince1955nTheU.S.LaborDepartmentdatareleasedyesterdayshowsthat,inMarchofthisyearoverthepastyear,theUnitedStatesconsumerpricesfellby0.4%forthelargestdeclinesince1955.MarchCPIdropped0.1%.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析China nGDPnChinas
11、firstquarterofthisyeargrossdomesticproduct(GDP)overthesameperiodincreasedbyonly6.1%,indicatingaverydepressedeconomy.nWiththeweakeconomy,theweakdemandcausedbyinternationalfinancialcrisis,coupledwithcontinuedhighbubbleofhousepricesandtheunprospecteddomesticChinesestockmarket,investmentandfinancingofbu
12、sinessesandindividualshavebeenseriouslyaffected,resultingindecliningofconsumption,abnormaldevelopmentofeconomyandthemanyhardshipsoflife.Inthiscasethepricedeclinewilloccurnaturally国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析PPI,CPInMay11,theNationalBureauofStatisticsannouncedinApriltheprincipalmacro-
13、economicdata,CPIfell1.5%,PPIfell6.6%comparedwiththesameperiodlastyear.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析The Europe nGDPnFirstquarter:2.5%nTheeuroareaGDPinthefourthquarterof2008isthelargestdeclineinhistorynThedatareleasedFridaybystatisticalbureauoftheEuropeanUnionshowedthatinthefourthquarterof2008,theeconomicrec
14、essionwasdeepeningintheeuro-zone,andthegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inthisquarterrecordedthebiggestdropsince1995.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析PPInThePPIdropofMarch,2009oftheeuro-zonebroketherecordof22yearsAccordingtothereportissuedbytheEuropeanCommission,theeurozoneMarchPPIfell3.1percentnAprileuro-zoneproducer
15、priceindexhitanannualrateofdeclinesince1981国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析CPInApril:AccordingtotheofficialofstatisticalbureauinEuropeanUnion.AprilCPIrose0.4%,thelowestannualratesince1996astheeconomistsexpected.Thereare15countriesintheeuroareainAprilsinflationrateislowerthaninMarch,ofwhichaminimumof-0.7%inIre
16、land,国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析nCrudeoilfuturescontinueastrongrebound.OPECdecidedtomaintainoutputquotasunchanged,.NYMEXcrudeoilcontractinJulyrose1.89percentto66.31U.S.dollars/barrel,andtheJunecontractis70U.S.dollars.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析nH1N1epidemicbrokeoutsuddenlymakethemarketworriedabouttheprocessof
17、globaleconomicrecoverywillbeblocked.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析nGeneralMotorshavesubmittedtotheBankruptcyCourttoapplyforbankruptcyprotection.Itssharesfellsharply.GMisexpectedtoannouncebankruptcyprotectionandaccesstothereorganization.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析nNorthKoreasituationisdeteriorating.theUNSecurityC
18、ouncilhasstronglyopposedandcondemnedforthenucleartestthatNorthKoreaconducted.onthe27th,theNorthKoreaissuedastatementtowithdrawfromtheKoreanWarArmisticeAgreementin1953.Tensionofwarresultedinincreasesingoldpricesseveraltimesinthehistory.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析nAt present, the global economy is at ebb,
19、especially the US, who is the indicator of the world economy. We are not optimistic about it.nHowever, we can see from the data, in short term, the CPI is falling.nIt leads to the appreciation of the US dollar. As a response, we will do short in the short term. But, as the whole background of weak e
20、conomy, in the long run, the dollar will turn to weakening. As a result, more and more people will buy gold out of harm avoidance need. So ,we think the price of gold will rise, and its beneficial for us to do long.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析nForthemoment,golongwithalittleamountatlowprice;nInthemediumand
21、longterm,themarketisintheadjustment.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析nIntheshort-term：goshortnInthemedium-term:golongnInthelong-term:golong国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析nInthetemporary:goshortbutnotmuchamountnInthelong-term:golong国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析Strength index RSI ntheprinciple:RSIisasimplemethodofcalculation.it
22、isbasedonthenumberofbuyersandsellers,findthebalanceofforces,reflectingmarketsupplyanddemandofbuyersandsellers.Forexample,100individualsfacedwithacommodity,ifmorethan50peopletobuy,biddingcompetition,commoditypriceswillrise.Conversely,ifmorethan50peopleracingtosell,pricesfell.Strengthindextheory,anyma
23、rketpricesroseorfell,betweenthechangesinthe0-100,inaccordancewithnormaldistribution,thattheRSIvaluesofmorethanchangesinbetween30-70,usually80oreven90whenhewasthatthemarkethasreachedoverboughtstatus.thusmarketpriceswilladjustdown.Whenthepricedroppedtobelow30areconsideredoversold.themarketwillrebound.
24、国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析Conclusion：nRSIfrom80（theoverboughtstatusgodowntoabout）50andcontinuestogodown，sothepricehasatendencytofalldown,ouradviceistogoshortintheshortterm国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析LengthoftwocandlescloselysidewaysRSInear50sideways国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析Influence analysi
25、sanalysis of International International futures market to domestic futures futures market to domestic futures market-market-COMEX MonthlyCOMEX Monthly : : RSI, KDJRSI, KDJ国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析RSI小于30为超卖状态，若出现W底部形态，为买进机会。RSI死叉：快速RSI从上往下跌破慢速RSI时是卖出机会。RSI大于70为超买状态，若出现M顶部形态是卖出机会。RSI金叉：快速RSI从下往上突破慢速RSI
26、时是买进机会。空头强势，卖出信号国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析MarketquotationswillfallgreatlywhentheKlineandtheDlinealternateintopgradetwice.DK，thecurrenttrendisfallingdown.ThussellingoutwhenKlinebreaksdownwardDline.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析Conclusion: RSI appearsforoscillatinginstruction,andwecanseethatthelongpositionsarewea
27、kened,theshort-sellersstrengthstrengthens. Inthehighlevel, KDJ linesareinconsolidation.AndKlinebreaksdownwardsDline,withatrendofdeathcross,whichshowsasymbolofsellingout.Besides,letslookatthemonthlinefromthewave.InApril,1999253U.S.dollaristhelowestprice.Afterthat,6obviouswavesgoup.Tothelastone,5subsi
28、diarywavescanberesearched.Thestrongpoint,therefore,isthe1034.2U.S.dollarofMarch,2008whichreachesthetopofthebigbullmarketof9years.ThoughinthebeginningofMay,2008,goldenpricegoesupgreatly,itcanbeonlytreatedasarebound.Andthisreboundwillcontinueforayear.Thecurrentmarketisstillinastageofrangebound,withado
29、wntrendintheshortperiod.Neithershorttermnormediumtermispropitioustoinvestors.Soitiswiseforustogoshortintheshortterm.Anyway,theoveralltrendwalksupward,explainingthatthegeneraltrendistogoup,whichindicatesthatgolonginthelongtermisproper.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析nThedaypricehaspenetratedtheresistanceline,f
30、ormedaheadandbegantodecline.Asaresult,thedaypricehasatendencytocontinuefallingdown.Soinshortterm,goshort.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析The final conclusionnSummarizingtheabovethefundamentalanalysisandthetechnicalanalysis,wecanmakesuchaconclusion:nIntheshortterm,thegoldpricewillfalldown.nInthelongterm,thegoldpricewillgohigh.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析AdvicenAsaresult,weshallgivesuchadvice:Intheshortterm,goshort.Inthelongterm,golong.国际期货市场运作第4组国际期货黄金的期货分析
